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xerxesramesepolybius

Bitcoin Has American Mindshare but Few Users

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The intersting thing is in the article are the stats about XRP

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-has-american-mindshare-but-few-users

In a survey of over 3000 americans by the Federal Reserve only 3% of Americans has heard of XRP  compared to 70% who had heard of Bitcoin.

0.29% reported owning XRP  compared to 1% owning Bitcoin.

 

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Any suggestions anyone? it cost $4m to get that Ellen slot (plus presumably some more cash for Ashton). Unfortunately Ellen only has about 4 million viewers. $1 per viewer.

Maybe time for a superbowl slot? Afterall if they could find tens or millions to pay off Moneygram (with no impact on price) that can pay of someone higher profile.

Maybe pay Johnny Depp and Amber heard $50m for a short commercial. Sounds like he needs the cash and she always like the publicity.

Just trying to be creative here.

 

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I don't find any of what is reported in that article surprising.  Almost 80% of American's live paycheck to paycheck, and many people are financially illiterate.  Bitcoin and crypto in general is also still a very niche area, and the average person is not interested in the technical aspects of crypto assets, nor is interested in putting in the time to understand how to obtain, transfer, or secure them.

The crypto space in general is also still very immature and speculative (see Dogecoin).   Very few, if any projects are actually providing anything of value (VeChain probably the furthest along in that respect).   However, it is clear to me that crypto is here to stay - we just don't know what public blockchains (if any) will be the winners.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

The intersting thing is in the article are the stats about XRP

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-has-american-mindshare-but-few-users

In a survey of over 3000 americans by the Federal Reserve only 3% of Americans has heard of XRP  compared to 70% who had heard of Bitcoin.

0.29% reported owning XRP  compared to 1% owning Bitcoin.

 

.

 

XRP is a bridging currency for FIs for international payments involving two distinct currencies fiat or otherwise, not for direct use by the masses.

Banks and other FIs involved in international currency trades will be more than happy to know that their use case is not contaminated by speculatos, and eventually the maturity, utility, and deflation of XRP will drive the speculators away, leaving mostly only MMs and FIs that use XRP in a utilitarian manner, not speculatively.  

Edited by enrique11

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6 hours ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

Any suggestions anyone? it cost $4m to get that Ellen slot (plus presumably some more cash for Ashton). Unfortunately Ellen only has about 4 million viewers. $1 per viewer.

Maybe time for a superbowl slot? Afterall if they could find tens or millions to pay off Moneygram (with no impact on price) that can pay of someone higher profile.

Maybe pay Johnny Depp and Amber heard $50m for a short commercial. Sounds like he needs the cash and she always like the publicity.

Just trying to be creative here.

 

As I've mentioned before, my theory is Ripple's plan was to bootstrap their vision using speculators in the general public in the early stage of development.  Ripple doesn't need the public's attention anymore.  They have more than 534 employees (stat from 2019), 300+ customers or 2.7% of the number of members in SWIFT system.

Remittances account for a relatively small portion of international payments...they are just a stepping stone to the movement of much larger sums of value.

Critical growth rate for Ripple customers is around 375 from a purely exponential growth model I used...We'll see if it's accurate or not...it's a very basic model, but growth rates in nature tend to follow this bounded exponential growth rate model or S-curve. 

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17 minutes ago, enrique11 said:

XRP is a bridging currency for FIs for international payments involving two distinct currencies fiat or otherwise, not for use by the masses.

Banks and other FIs involved in international currency trades will be more than happy to know that their use case is not contaminated by speculatos, and eventually the maturity, utility, and deflation of XRP will drive the speculators away, leaving mostly only MMs and FIs that use XRP in a utilitarian manner, not speculatively.  

Well Ripple seems to be retreating ever faster from big FIs towards the little guy.

Banks don't want to use it as a bridging currency, so they aimed at remittance. Hey guys, people sending money back to Mexico, that sounds like the massses to me but then ODL collapses and Ripple makes that weird announcement that they are not going to do any big "treasury payments" any more. So even smaller payments and perhaps less of them.

and does "Banks and other FIs involved in international currency trades will be more than happy to know that their use case is not contaminated by speculatos" mean the price will never go up?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Paradox said:

I don't find any of what is reported in that article surprising.  Almost 80% of American's live paycheck to paycheck, and many people are financially illiterate.  Bitcoin and crypto in general is also still a very niche area, and the average person is not interested in the technical aspects of crypto assets, nor is interested in putting in the time to understand how to obtain, transfer, or secure them.

The crypto space in general is also still very immature and speculative (see Dogecoin).   Very few, if any projects are actually providing anything of value (VeChain probably the furthest along in that respect).   However, it is clear to me that crypto is here to stay - we just don't know what public blockchains (if any) will be the winners.

Yes, but not the FIs. 

Phone apps will bring cryptos to the masses transparently. 

Speculators have been driven away by the huge fall in price, IMO.  Mostly die-hard believers in the technology remain. 

Vechain is now based in Singapore but was originally Chinese and so it likely has a lot of Chinese connections still - I don't trust it.   Also, it's a natively a two-token system, like Neo, another Chines-based crypto.  Two token systems seem like a sort of money grab because you have two tokens which allows for many more market pairs, so in that respect, it's like you get a free listing on exchanges of one token because the other token generates it, not to mention the complicated dynamics of a two-token system. 

True, cryptos are here to stay. True, we don't know who the winners will be, but we can look to history for some insights as to why certain use cases failed and others succeeded and see how that applies to this space.

 

Edited by enrique11

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8 minutes ago, enrique11 said:

As I've mentioned before, my theory is Ripple's plan was to bootstrap their vision using speculators in the general public in the early stage of development.  Ripple doesn't need the public's attention anymore.  They have more than 534 employees (stat from 2019), 300+ customers or 2.7% of the number of members in SWIFT system.

Remittances account for a relatively small portion of international payments...they are just a stepping stone to the movement of much larger sums of value.

Critical growth rate for Ripple customers is around 375 from a purely exponential growth model I used...We'll see if it's accurate or not...it's a very basic model, but growth rates in nature tend to follow this bounded exponential growth rate model or S-curve. 

Yeah well, they lose money on that stepping stone, all those banks seem to continue using SWIFT and we have no idea what value of business is done on Ripplenet versus SWIFT. 

Considering they only make money from selling XRP and 500 staff means a huge burn rate, well you figure it out

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3 minutes ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

Well Ripple seems to be retreating ever faster from big FIs towards the little guy.

Banks don't want to use it as a bridging currency, so they aimed at remittance. Hey guys, people sending money back to Mexico, that sounds like the massses to me but then ODL collapses and Ripple makes that weird announcement that they are not going to do any big "treasury payments" any more. So even smaller payments and perhaps less of them.

and does "Banks and other FIs involved in international currency trades will be more than happy to know that their use case is not contaminated by speculatos" mean the price will never go up?

It's hard to climb a ladder by skipping most of the rungs and trying to jump to the top.   It's easiest to climb it starting from the bottom.  Yes, it will take longer, but you are less likely to fall.

The masses aren't using XRP, XRP works transparently in the background. It's the MMs and Ripple's products that move the value. Sure, you could do it yourself, but it's a lot more work, and like you said, most people don't know how to do it and it would take them longer to figure out how to do end-to-end payments between sender and recipient. 

The price will go up organically, like a snowball rolling downhill.   This is up to a 10-year project to maturity.   As quickly as Ripple wants to speed up this process, they know they are at the mercy of their customers, so they have to target those customers that are most w illing to take a risk and use it now, which is smaller companies who have a small quickly adaptive infrastructure that doesn't require so a large risk of capital and change in infrastructure to switch over to this new system.  

The price of XRP is a function of its utility.  It's that simple, and utility depends on mass adoption and usage which takes time. 

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

Well Ripple seems to be retreating ever faster from big FIs towards the little guy.

Banks don't want to use it as a bridging currency, so they aimed at remittance. Hey guys, people sending money back to Mexico, that sounds like the massses to me but then ODL collapses and Ripple makes that weird announcement that they are not going to do any big "treasury payments" any more. So even smaller payments and perhaps less of them.

and does "Banks and other FIs involved in international currency trades will be more than happy to know that their use case is not contaminated by speculatos" mean the price will never go up?

Big FIs are higly regulated, well-established legacy infrastructure, deal in very large amounts of money and so they are very risk-averse, particularly because they handle other people's money. Remittances is a good place to start because of the relatively low amounts of value being moved and the relatively high legacy fees; Ripple can create a niche market that SWIFT can't touch.

 Not now. 

No, the people don't send the payment themselves...it is done through a middle man at a cost that is significantly better than legacy systems. 

I don't know what a treasury payment is, so here is a definition:

Quote

Treasury Transaction means any currency or interest purchase, cap or collar agreement, forward rate agreement, interest rate or currency future or option contract, foreign exchange or currency purchase or sale agreement, interest rate swap, currency swap or combined interest rate and currency swap agreement and any other similar agreement.

- lawinsider.com

Quote

Treasury Transaction means any derivative transaction entered into in connection with protection against or benefit from fluctuation in any rate or price.

-lawinsider.com

If XRP is to be used as a hedging currency involving derivative transactions (which are highly volatile), I only see this being successful if the hedging strategy is on a very short-term basis and the value that is being hedged using XRP is relatively small because of lack of liquidity in certain exchanges. 

The only obvious short-term treasury payments for which such a strategy would work for a sufficiently small amount would be very short term swap agreements.  XRP's long term volatility makes it  a very poor hedging tool.  Also, at this early stage in development, we don't know what assets XRP is strongly negatively correlated with so we don't even know if XRP as a hedging strategy case for these treasury payments will work since we don't know how stable XRP's price is long term; i.e. we don't know if XRP provides sufficient negative correlation to these treasury payment instruments in order to function as a viable mid to long-term hedging instrument compared to legacy hedging instruments for the same purpose.

Edited by enrique11

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By treasury payment they were implying wholesale payments rather than retail remittances i.e. bigger payments. Anyway key point is Ripple seem to be retreating from the big boys and most the little guys who are presumably going to provide the "new money" have never heard of XRP or aren't interested

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

By treasury payment they were implying wholesale payments rather than retail remittances i.e. bigger payments. Anyway key point is Ripple seem to be retreating from the big boys and most the little guys who are presumably going to provide the "new money" have never heard of XRP or aren't interested


So Ripple just intends to use XRP as a bridging currency for large wholesale currency swaps internationally?

Yeah, this doesn't have a good chance of working because Ripple has to artificially build MM support to facilitate this large movement of value when the organic support is not there yet.  Ripple would have to pay MMs a significant premium to take on this extra risk of an unproven, nascent use case going up against a well-establish legacy system: a David vs Goliath scenario, but David has no sling...lol...it's easier for David to focus on things that Goliath can't do...eat his Wheaties in the meantime, grow bigger and bigger, and one day he might be able to take on Goliath without a sling. lol

Edited by enrique11

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1 hour ago, enrique11 said:

Yes, but not the FIs. 

Phone apps will bring cryptos to the masses transparently. 

Speculators have been driven away by the huge fall in price, IMO.  Mostly die-hard believers in the technology remain. 

Vechain is now based in Singapore but was originally Chinese and so it likely has a lot of Chinese connections still - I don't trust it.   Also, it's a natively a two-token system, like Neo, another Chines-based crypto.  Two token systems seem like a sort of money grab because you have two tokens which allows for many more market pairs, so in that respect, it's like you get a free listing on exchanges of one token because the other token generates it, not to mention the complicated dynamics of a two-token system. 

True, cryptos are here to stay. True, we don't know who the winners will be, but we can look to history for some insights as to why certain use cases failed and others succeeded and see how that applies to this space.

 

We have phone apps.  This doesn’t change the underlying financial literacy or crypto education problem. Speculation is still alive and well in this space so I’m not sure what you are referencing here.  XRP perhaps?   Crypto’s history is not long enough to draw any solid conclusions on use cases IMO, apart from speculation. 

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