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41 minutes ago, Spekul8 said:

I am happy that you made a good return, and I don't want to rain on your parade. In those two years you held, stocks that are common knowledge went 4X,5X and 10X. This is not a single stock, rather a large group of stocks that experienced that. So there is always an opportunity cost. 
Further, gold is not a liquid commodity unless it's sold through a Futures contract as a speculative tool. Cash gold has a huge spread, and when you buy it, they add 200 Basis and the same on the sell while reduced.  
But, back to the main point. 

Most get into assets and then convince themselves it was the right move, finding a support group for their ideas, and information that justifies it. I am always aware of this when I trade. My decisions are faulty as far as I am concern, and ONLY the market proves me right or wrong as a confirmation to my idea. 
Everyone has to start with a story of "why?" In the case of XRP, I thought that there is a crowd of people who missed out on BTC and are looking for a story to buy.  XRP was cheap in the single cents, and I thought its illiquidity would drive the prices up. There were blogs, forums, and Twitters of diehard fans, and since it's in the single cents, what's the downside? Gateways corridors, banks switching, and everyone "behind" was a perfect belief system for the markets to spike. I thought it would form single cents to a dollar (20X), not 60X. That profit was pure luck despite all my predictions. Many were in the FOMO stage and jumped at high prices nd retired on this site. 

Now there is a narrative in technology due to COVID. 
BAT is a narrative with a story. The new browser, people get paid to click on ads, etc. A story. Would it happen, I don't know, but I do now it's 37 cents from the 20 that I bought it at. As long as it's going up slowly, I am in, and I think it has a story that many would use to get in (confirmation bias). I see a $5 in a year.
NIO (stock) is an excellent story for the own Chinese market of a car. That could be huge. 
I am losing on APRN. So I thought that due to COVID, more people would get food through delivery. Well, they did, and the stock posted an excellent first positive earning after quite a few losses, well....stock halved. I don't sit here and say, "it does not make sense" because the stock is a forward-looking mechanism. It is where it is for a reason. 
Cut your losses out fast. Let profits run and run and run. Avoid the "take profit immediately." 

 

 

your reply resonates with me, i still remember the day i wanted to look for extraordinary return, and i think of crypto, so i did some googling,  the first thing i realized is that i missed the bitcoin boat, it's high enough that it will not give you any meaningful / life changing gains, then not far behind lies XRP (named Ripple that time), holy shit it's only 20 cents, a lot of other crypto are higher than that, i thought i found a hidden gem, did a little more research on what it does, found out it's mission is a good one, then i bought, just like that, just a small bag.

It went to 3.50 after a few months, didnt cash out due to my first time, i thought it will just keep going higher until i make life changing gains, and be kicking myself if i sell now, well lesson learnt, after years of winter i've grown strong now, understand considerably more on this whole crypto market (based on cycle), and already had my sell points laddered / planned.

Of course the small bag that i have isnt going to give life changing gains, during the winter i learnt more and more about XRP and decided to considerably upsize my bags, i'm ready now, anytime now, never sold a single XRP during winter, only keep adding more, high time we get our reward, latest by end of 2021, hey there's a time window of expectation of profits, else it doesnt make sense to just keep holding and actually not making any money on it.

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And when i just would have invested 30% of everything that i earned the past 35 years into microsoft, then i would have had tens of millions right now, and when i would have invested that 30% in

The word hopium is really a bit smug.  It implies that that hope is some sort of drug that overpowers reason, without providing reasoned arguments why hope is unreasonable. XRP have been in a 2.5

In the meantime, let's enjoy being back at 30 cents for another year or two

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I think some of this dialogue on price increases of stocks and commodities is very dangerous and misleading. A major part of the reason why these investment vehicles have increased in price is because they are valued in USD and the 'benevolent' Fed has increased the money supply by trillions. Assuming that these stocks etc maintain their prior value then their prices MUST increase to maintain parity of value with the money supply. Of course value can change independent of the money supply and this is the scenario we are interested in most (when it increases !)

Now where success can be celebrated is where someone has sold their USD-based investments and converted them into real property, eg. Cabin furniture or physical gold, ie. not fiat. If you sell and hold USD then you are standing still. This is one of the fundamental problems with an elastic currency.

Edited by jMusic
typo
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12 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

Further, gold is not a liquid commodity unless it's sold through a Futures contract as a speculative tool. Cash gold has a huge spread, and when you buy it, they add 200 Basis and the same on the sell while reduced. 

I buy and sell bullion gold/silver online - spread is low between buyers and sellers in the market place I use.  It's as easy as buying/selling crypto.  You literally own the metals in a vault, but there is counterparty risk (the custodians of the vault).  Anyway, it has worked out OK for me.  Diversity is one thing, but the other factor is risk appetite.  My appetite for risk in crypto is a lot smaller than precious metals.

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I am happy that you made a good return, and I don't want to rain on your parade. In those two years you held, stocks that are common knowledge went 4X,5X and 10X. This is not a single stock, rather a large group of stocks that experienced that. So there is always an opportunity cost. 

Well you have high standards, I'll grant you that.  I'm happy making a 60% gain on a very large capital sum over 2 years compared to making 1% or 2% per year sitting in the bank.  Would I place as much money into crypto? No - I value my sleep. Much of that money invested in metals was made in the 2017/18 crypto bull run so I just see it as a nice interest return on crypto gains. It's a combination of how much capital you're willing to invest and the returns you hope to make.   I have thrown smaller sums at individual cryptos and made many X gains.  I find it's easier with smaller amounts. I guess what I'm saying is my risk appetite is proportionate to the amount of money I'm willing to invest.  You wouldn't throw the majority of your savings on an outside bet either, I'm sure.    That kind of high risk strategy just melts my brain.  :D

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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On 8/21/2020 at 10:10 AM, 2ndtimearound said:

 I'm happy making a 60% gain on a very large capital sum over 2 years compared to making 1% or 2% per year sitting in the bank.

You should be happy. You were patient, and you got your reward. My returns are part of the reflection that I love equities. They do get overhyped sometimes, sometimes go below what I anticipate, but it is a game that (just like you said) that allows me to sleep at night. 

The only gold I look at is via the futures exchange, but it is leveraged, and while it provides capital efficiency, it is hard to hold long term. I am happy you have a way to get narrow spreads in the cash market. Maybe I should check it out. 

 

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On 8/21/2020 at 1:39 AM, Jotaro said:

 

It went to 3.50 after a few months, didnt cash out due to my first time, i thought it will just keep going higher until i make life changing gains, and be kicking myself if i sell now, well lesson learnt, after years of winter i've grown strong now, understand considerably more on this whole crypto market (based on cycle), and already had my sell points laddered / planned.

I run when when prices retrace from high to low. I never add another dollar to it. It does not matter if I study it, love it or it smells good. The market is smarter than me.  If I was greedy and did not sell I move out. It happend before and will happen to me again, but I will never add to a losing position. 

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On 8/21/2020 at 9:27 AM, jMusic said:

I think some of this dialogue on price increases of stocks and commodities is very dangerous and misleading. A major part of the reason why these investment vehicles have increased in price is because they are valued in USD and the 'benevolent' Fed has increased the money supply by trillions. Assuming that these stocks etc maintain their prior value then their prices MUST increase to maintain parity of value with the money supply. Of course value can change independent of the money supply and this is the scenario we are interested in most (when it increases !)

Now where success can be celebrated is where someone has sold their USD-based investments and converted them into real property, eg. Cabin furniture or physical gold, ie. not fiat. If you sell and hold USD then you are standing still. This is one of the fundamental problems with an elastic currency.

So the profits I made and went to my bank account, covered ny debts and allwed me a nice saving is bad because it's USD based. Interesting. 

We are on a forum where Ripple sells XRP Crypto to finance their operation. Talking about increasing supply that keep sprices down for years now. 

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24 minutes ago, Spekul8 said:

it is a game that (just like you said) that allows me to sleep at night.

Yes, and I think that's part of your success - being able to sleep at night :D.  I think it takes time for each individual to realise what their risk appetite actually is...quite often you don't know until you're in too deep (then you should lower a position or two).

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