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Fidel_Castro

XRP is going to total failure. What will you do with your HODlings?

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Posted (edited)

Ripple keeps plowing forward. Haven't seen anything suggesting that this will fail. Only seen impatient loser moonboys be mad that they aren't millionaires after 3 years. Shit I totally would love 589 or even $5 off speculation but it hasn't happened, only real progress has 

Could fail, that's why you have other plans for success.

Edited by mrhat75

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I'll have a collection of useless tokens on a remote storage device to educate my kids about poor financial decisions. If I was gonna sell in fear I would've done it a year ago,  dgaf gonna ride that titanic to the sea floor, broke even in '17 either way.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, fatlever said:

Anyone parroting about fundamentals in crypto is clueless.  Crypto is entirely a speculative gamble and there are no fundamentals.  Where are the the revenue, price-to-earnings, free cash flow and earnings-to-growth that fundamental analysis in stocks is based on?  There is no fundamental analysis in crypto.  You can't base it on hype, POC partnerships of Ripple and the hopium of confirmations in echo chamber investors here and call it fundamentals.  

1. I never compared XRP and Amazon, they are different animals. My point was purely whether one can hold through uncertain times or not, especially if they expected fast gains. I did hold Amazon in 200x even though many told me the company was over-valuated. It’s easy to talk about how brilliant Amazon is in 2020 but I wonder what your opinion would be in 2008 after holding since early 2004 (I am just using your graph as a reference here, it starts from 2004). This is a link to the historical prices for that period just for laughs - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history?period1=1075420800&period2=1230595200&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo
This does not mean XRP (or Ripple stocks for that matter) is as good as Amazon was. They are simply different. Same as all above is different from gold bars. 
2. Top-down fundamental analysis does not need to start from a specific company, you could analyze a sector, its competitors, macro trends etc etc. There is a fundamental analysis of the blockchain technology out there, you can google a bunch of papers about it. Crypto <> blockchain but blockchain opens up many very interesting possibilities which did not exist before. Take tokenization for example (and that is just one use case). Will crypto benefit from those possibilities? Most probably. Will XRP benefit from them? Who knows.

Edited by Lamberth
Historical prices

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, fatlever said:

Anyone parroting about fundamentals in crypto is clueless.  Crypto is entirely a speculative gamble and there are no fundamentals.  Where are the the revenue, price-to-earnings, free cash flow and earnings-to-growth that fundamental analysis in stocks is based on?  There is no fundamental analysis in crypto.  You can't base it on hype, POC partnerships of Ripple and the hopium of confirmations in echo chamber investors here and call it fundamentals.  

Furthermore, it is utterly clueless and moronic to compare Ripple/XRP investment to Amazon hoping it will shoot up like Amazon did from the 2000s.  Look at Amazon revenue from the 2000s.  It was going up year over year every single year.  Their year over year quarterly growth, trailing 12 months over the 2000s look even better.  During the 2008/09 recession when everyone stopped building and buying, Amazon was ramping investments to dominate the cloud space for the next 10 years.

https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/03/20/amazon-86-million-in-servers-in-2008

Again, right now when most companies are hording cash, Amazon has acquired self-driving company Zoox for over a billion to get ahead of the competition in self-driving fleets and has launched an Aerospace and Satellite Solutions arm to deploy swarms of small satellites encircling the globe to integrate with their cloud offerings. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-launches-space-push-to-drive-cloud-computing-growth-11593489660

Amazon is led by Jeff Bezos one of the most brilliant business strategist of all-time.  Meanwhile Ripple is led by Brad Garlinghouse, a corporate parasite from failed DOT COM companies AOL and Yahoo.  Amazon innovates, thinks 10 steps ahead, has increased revenue and growth year over year.  Ripple hypes meme ideas like xRapid, Coil, ODL, PayID, moves goal posts after failing to deliver and its only revenue is generated by dumping XRP tokens on investors who treat their investment in XRP like a religion.  

amzn-revenue.png

ODL has been around for essentially a year. More volume and corridors now than a year ago. 

Before this they built out RippleNet for years, decentralized it, implemented escrow, etc etc.

Your point?

Edited by mrhat75

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, QWE said:

Amazon started as an online bookstore in 1995, its history did not begin in 2004 as you decided to cherry-pick the data. It had an IPO in 1997 and was part of the .com bubble in 1998/1999, when every pet store that owned a .com domain mooned like there was no tomorrow. No fundamentals whatsoever, yet every tech stock went parabolic. Just like crypto in 2017.

 

I did not cherry pick data.  I just used a revenue chart that was available and it started from 2004.  Another chart below showing Amazon's revenue's starting from 1995 even before they went IPO.  Revenue up 1,500% the 2nd year.  Up 825% the 3rd year.  Up 312% the 3rd year.  Up 168% the 3rd year.  2 Years after IPO Amazon has 1.6 Billion in revenue in 1999.  2.7 Billion in revenue in 2000.  Only the absolutely clueless see that type of growth as "no fundamentals whatsoever."  

 

3 hours ago, QWE said:

“According to sources, Amazon did not expect to make a profit for four to five years. This comparatively slow growth caused stockholders to complain that the company was not reaching profitability fast enough to justify their investment or even survive in the long-term. In 2001, the dot-com bubble burst destroyed many e-companies in the process, but Amazon survived and moved forward beyond the tech crash to become a huge player in online sales.”

 

Amazon's model in the 1990s to today has always remained the same.  Don't worry about profits, take all the money you make and invest it back in the company for growth.  It's a business model that there have been a lot of books about and been emulated by many companies.  People didn't get this back then and even until the early 2010s people were still clueless about this.  As you can see using this model, they have been growing and growing and growing.  Non stop.  

 

3 hours ago, QWE said:

If anything, you can compare the 1999 .com bubble with 2017 crpyto bubble, you cannot just arbitrarily choose 2004 as a start. Here’s a graph of Amazon stock during the .com bubble:

There was nothing to justify the price of Amazon during those first years. It went from 1.50 USD to 105 USD in less than 2 years, then fell all the way down to 6 USD in the following 3 years. That’s about -95% from ATH. Sounds familiar?

 

Yes, it sounds very familiar.  Except Ripple does not sound at all like Amazon but XRP and cryptos in the space sound exactly like Pets.com collecting massive amounts of money from investors using hype and delivering nothing but losses.

amzn-revenue.jpg

Edited by fatlever

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I remember back in 2018 when I first joined this group. Some of the people on here sounded really flakey. They were saying things like XRP was sure to go to $100 any day and that were planning to buy lambos, yachts, ect. Those people seem to be long gone now. The crowd now seems more mature and down-to-earth, yet somewhat cynical and demoralized. It’s understandable given XRP’s price performance relative to other coins. I’ve been in Bitcoin since it’s early days and jumped on the XRP bandwagon a few years ago. The current time we’re in reminds me of the 2013-2017 doldrum. It seemed like forever at the time. I think XRP will pop in a similar fashion again - when everyone least expects it. It could be tomorrow or in 5 years. No one knows. The fundamentals are still very positive. The company Ripple is doing a lot of things right. But it just takes time for that to translate into price appreciation for XRP. I suspect that the people selling today will eventually come to regret it. But if you need the money now, I totally get it. Best of luck to those you that are selling your holdings. 

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6 hours ago, xrp_sea said:

It’s understandable given XRP’s price performance relative to other coins.

With all my respect, price is a trailing indicator, to use your slang. XRP does not float in a vacuum. Besides company competition in blockchain "industry" there is ongoing coin (strategy) competition – an everyman-for-themselves-war for the available money. Tether is currently winning it over any coin and over XRP obviously too. I warned about USDT strategic attack on TOP3 back in March 2020. ETH recent activity correlates to that perceived threat from USDT. ETH folks are fighting for their TOP2 place and their future in general. I could list several other coin projects, that used USDT attack as an impulse to become demonstrably more active since began.

What's Ripple done and is doing about XRP competitiveness that affected / should affect XRP price performance relative to other coins? I know of only one recent action.

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22 minutes ago, rom said:

With all my respect, price is a trailing indicator, to use your slang. XRP does not float in a vacuum. Besides company competition in blockchain "industry" there is ongoing coin (strategy) competition – an everyman-for-themselves-war for the available money. Tether is currently winning it over any coin and over XRP obviously too. I warned about USDT strategic attack on TOP3 back in March 2020. ETH recent activity correlates to that perceived threat from USDT. ETH folks are fighting for their TOP2 place and their future in general. I could list several other coin projects, that used USDT attack as an impulse to become demonstrably more active since began.

What's Ripple done and is doing about XRP competitiveness that affected / should affect XRP price performance relative to other coins? I know of only one recent action.

Tether are just parked money waiting to be invested. 

What's the issue in its market cap constantly growing?

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16 hours ago, fatlever said:

 

I did not cherry pick data.  I just used a revenue chart that was available and it started from 2004.  Another chart below showing Amazon's revenue's starting from 1995 even before they went IPO.  Revenue up 1,500% the 2nd year.  Up 825% the 3rd year.  Up 312% the 3rd year.  Up 168% the 3rd year.  2 Years after IPO Amazon has 1.6 Billion in revenue in 1999.  2.7 Billion in revenue in 2000.  Only the absolutely clueless see that type of growth as "no fundamentals whatsoever."  

 

 

Amazon's model in the 1990s to today has always remained the same.  Don't worry about profits, take all the money you make and invest it back in the company for growth.  It's a business model that there have been a lot of books about and been emulated by many companies.  People didn't get this back then and even until the early 2010s people were still clueless about this.  As you can see using this model, they have been growing and growing and growing.  Non stop.  

 

 

Yes, it sounds very familiar.  Except Ripple does not sound at all like Amazon but XRP and cryptos in the space sound exactly like Pets.com collecting massive amounts of money from investors using hype and delivering nothing but losses.

amzn-revenue.jpg

 

You are correct, Amazon’s revenue did in fact grow every year even before 2004, I should have checked it myself. I stand corrected and apologize for accusing you of cherry picking the data.

 

I do, however, still maintain the position that Amazon’s parabolic stock price increase (and perceived success of the company) during the dot-com bubble had “no fundamentals whatsoever” and that the dot-com bubble can be compared to the crypto bubble in 2017.

Amazon did increase its revenue, but it had other, far more concerning negative indicators that would deter any informed investor. This is from The Guardian, June 2000 ( https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2000/jun/27/efinance.books ):

“But Amazon's finances have also raised eyebrows in far more fundamental ways. The company insists that the money flowing into it is being invested in its infrastructure. But US newspaper investigations reveal that the company is carrying more than $2.1bn of junk-bonds debts, supported by only $25.6m (£16m) of equity - and that around 20% of the company's assets consist of balance-sheet goodwill”

 

Its assets at the time were tied to some questionable investments. For example, Amazon held 30% stake in the Pets.com by October 2000. Pets.com closed a month later ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com ).

There were many red flags popping up, and if you check a few articles from 1999/2000, you will find stark warnings about the fundamentals ( https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/can-amazon-survive/ ):

“While falling share prices have afflicted many Internet companies this year, Amazon.com clearly has real problems. Despite attracting 23 million shoppers, it lost nearly $720 million in 1999, compared with losses of $125 million in 1998, $31 million in 1997 and $6 million in 1996. Losses soared despite the enormous gains in sales — $1.64 billion in 1999 versus $610 million the year before, for instance.”

 

Obviously, Amazon emerged triumphant from the dot-com bubble, but the path was extremely rocky, and the fundamentals were just not there at that time, you had to believe CEO’s vision that the company will someday become what it is today, and that in the long term, their good investment decisions will outweigh their bad decisions. It operated with a loss for years to stay competitive to traditional brick-and-mortar businesses with established market share and loyal customers.

In that sense, I believe crypto is exactly where dot-com companies were in the early 2000s. The bubble had burst, everyone realized the fundamentals are not there (or were greatly exaggerated), but the infrastructure has been growing over the years anyway.

Ripple has stayed true to their vision of faster and more efficient real time gross settlement since the beginning, and the company has only been growing in number of employees and partnerships in this time. It is one of the oldest players in crypto industry, albeit with a slower yearly growth compared to 2017 expectations.

Like Amazon that went from bookselling to launching their own smartphone brand (Fire phone), book publishing, web hosting and even travel agency (Destinations), Ripple is trying different approaches to apply their RTGS vision to the real world, using RippleNet, Coil, ODL and xPring to grow the ecosystem (and see what sticks – similar to Amazons failed and successful projects).

 

In early 2000s, you had to decide whether you believe ecommerce will eventually take over and choose which players are most likely to succeed. In crypto, you have to decide whether you believe cryptocurrencies have a future and a use case or not. Judging by your closing statement, you believe they have no place in the real world, and that is a completely fair decision.

I don’t agree with it though, I see a place for programmable cryptocurrencies and transferring value through DLT, not as a replacement or competition to fiat, but by complementing it. Cryptos are fiat agnostic, something CBDCs will never be. Cryptocurrencies have the capability to monetize the internet, and that for me is one of the biggest revolutions in the industry since its inception.

I strongly believe some cryptocurrencies and companies in the industry will survive this crypto winter and do what the few dot-com survivors did – become global multibillion dollar players. Looking at Ripple, I believe they will be one of them.

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