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What happened to ODL?


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On 6/11/2020 at 12:01 AM, MrX said:

Drama of this week. Ripple failed to get banks to use XRP for the big $$$ transfers. And now they pretending to have a plan for the "next option" - low value remittance.  

 

 

This make more sense for both Ripple and XRP. So forget about big banks, Focus on small remmitance is a good choice. But it will takes years to make XRP price to gain.

 

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Briefly, in the latest Ripple Insight, Ripple talked about staying the course with ODL, but pivoting away from treasuries to small payments  https://ripple.com/insights/staying-the-course-in-remi

Yeah I have the same question. Also it seems it's Ripple which decided to not move large chunks but I don't understand why do they decide. I think it's up to the customers which are using RippleN

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Forget about big banks?  Seriously?  This is what I'm not following:  "In particular, we are reducing emphasis on large treasury payments—which are traditionally used to fund businesses and services in the absence of real-time transfers—to support individual, low-value transactions, addressing the growing need in remittances and SME payments. This may reduce overall ODL transaction volumes."  How is this a good thing? 

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@Sharkey I speculate that this paragraph may be a sign of what is to come... 

ODL’s benefits for eliminating pre-funding are especially important during times of crisis due to the exposed risk and increased volatility. In the early months of the global crisis, currency volatility skyrocketed, with the MXN peso devalued at more than 20%against the USD, for example.

If their customers are ‘de-risking’ by reducing their pre-funded accounts overseas, then this would make sense. May not be ‘a good thing’ at the present moment and possibly out of Ripple’s hands, but in hindsight, may possibly be a good thing If this tactic weathers a global crisis.

As is usually the case, another ‘let’s wait and see’.

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12 hours ago, Sharkey said:

Forget about big banks?  Seriously?  This is what I'm not following:  "In particular, we are reducing emphasis on large treasury payments—which are traditionally used to fund businesses and services in the absence of real-time transfers—to support individual, low-value transactions, addressing the growing need in remittances and SME payments. This may reduce overall ODL transaction volumes."  How is this a good thing? 

It's bad thing, but at least you know the true. lol. Rather then they give you day dream?

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On 6/15/2020 at 9:56 AM, Valhalla_Guy said:

What happened to ODL? Same thing that happened to X-VIA, X-Current, and x-Rapid. Which happens to be the same thing that happened to the “elimination of Nostro/Vostro” , Coil and the “liberation of the poor”

It’s called “hitting the hard wall known as reality”   

You might be right, but we also don't know what is going on behind the corporate veil via NDA/Confidentiality Agreements with Ripple's customers. It's easy for you be a Monday morning QB using speculation, hearsay and other poor avenue streams of information to create an opinion. 

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On 6/15/2020 at 3:56 PM, Valhalla_Guy said:

What happened to ODL? Same thing that happened to X-VIA, X-Current, and x-Rapid. Which happens to be the same thing that happened to the “elimination of Nostro/Vostro” , Coil and the “liberation of the poor”

It’s called “hitting the hard wall known as reality”   

 

 

Maybe I'm optimistic but it sounds and looks exactly what I would expect removal of n/v accounts to look like. Namely the big customer uses odl for a bit to top up such n/v aka "treasury" payments. Then after proving it works reliably with saving customer decides to apply it to the actual individual payments AFTER they have burned thru their n/v (or reduced to whatever level they are comfortable with) then volumes (if they're as easy to trace in small payments?) will return........

 

AKA this could be all the things you mention. So suck up that negativity soldier & have a warm glass of optimism sponsored by me :)

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12 minutes ago, scoobysi said:

Maybe I'm optimistic but it sounds and looks exactly what I would expect removal of n/v accounts to look like. Namely the big customer uses odl for a bit to top up such n/v aka "treasury" payments.

The problem with that theory is it’s unlikely they have nearly three weeks worth of usage sitting idle in Nostro accounts.  If that was what happened the Nostro is likely to have gotten used up inside the first week.

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3 hours ago, scoobysi said:

that is a huge unknown as I can't recall anyone ever commenting on how much they had in n/v & how much that would normally last (plus if volumes have been lower with covid?) 

That’s true.  But just looking at it from the standard business view.  Just-in-time inventory applies to finance too, so it’s reasonable to assume they only hold the barest minimum they would need.

Now irrespective of the trading volume and size of the Nostro needed,  we do know the normal transit times for international money transfers.  Let’s assume the nearly worst case of say five days. And that if the need arose they can send an expedited transfer in say two days.

Lets also assume that it’s not a case of ‘let it run down till empty’ then top up.  Every day they will look at yesterday’s volume and send that amount (or a variation based on estimated demand) out to hop on the multi day transfer conveyer belt.  So there is a constant daily conveyor of funds in transit to the account to top it up.

Lets also assume they must allow for contingency situations.  But that costs money so do it as lean as possible.

All of that together makes me think it’s extremely likely they have around 4 to 10 days worth of trading value in the Nostro.

Its been a week longer (at least) than that.  So I feel confident, (but I’ve been confidently wrong before) that they could have depleted their Nostros easily by now if your theory was correct.

The COVID volumes will be down for sure so maybe double all that and if you are correct they might have another week left.

 

4 hours ago, scoobysi said:

Plus the how traceable will small payments be if/when they return?

The automated scripts don’t care if a cent or a million dollars.  Op they are matching amounts and times.  So I don’t think they would be too much more likely to be missed.

 

It is possible though that convoluted tricks come into play if they really want to obscure it but there has been no hints of that to my knowledge.

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With so many debate in this forum, about the good and evil, the drama, the politics. We need to conclude.:big_boss:

So, In conclusion?

XRP price will keep sunking? or will raise?

Within one year?:blink:

Anyhow, my last 1,000 xrp will be my last bet. If it is going down, I will lost about $180 in current market price, and if they really success and be use by global payment. I will become millionaire (because the price will be $1,000/xrp)

Will I be a millionaire?:clapping:

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On 6/12/2020 at 10:06 PM, FreedomGundam said:

This make more sense for both Ripple and XRP. So forget about big banks, Focus on small remmitance is a good choice. But it will takes years to make XRP price to gain.

 

The bigger question still remains...what was showing up and running as ODL (successfully?) just stopped....  stopped....and some would say now its still running just smaller......and I say the drop is so significant that this new ODL volume is very small.... does this mean all prior volume was fake?  was it just testing? was it used and proven to not work.....While @Ripple did pre-warn "KINDA"..... they have yet to explain what happened.  

 

Its awesome they are going to direct their energy and focus in a different direct,  by why does their sift in focus cause the ODL that was looking successful drop to levels many thought we would never see again.

How does a Cross-boarder remittance  company just turn off the switch?

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27 minutes ago, itcdominic said:

The bigger question still remains...what was showing up and running as ODL (successfully?) just stopped....  stopped....and some would say now its still running just smaller......and I say the drop is so significant that this new ODL volume is very small.... does this mean all prior volume was fake?  was it just testing? was it used and proven to not work.....While @Ripple did pre-warn "KINDA"..... they have yet to explain what happened.  

 

Its awesome they are going to direct their energy and focus in a different direct,  by why does their sift in focus cause the ODL that was looking successful drop to levels many thought we would never see again.

How does a Cross-boarder remittance  company just turn off the switch?

It was not organic, it was incentivized. Ripple took away the reward and we are back to the drawing board where no one wants to use it. Previous ODL volume didn't stop their cross boarder remittances they just carried on as before ODL, and as everyone else in the space, without the need for Ripple or XRP. Its business as usual. ODL didn't prove to be the game changer every makes it out to be.

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36 minutes ago, LetHerRip said:

It was not organic, it was incentivized. Ripple took away the reward and we are back to the drawing board where no one wants to use it. Previous ODL volume didn't stop their cross boarder remittances they just carried on as before ODL, and as everyone else in the space, without the need for Ripple or XRP. Its business as usual. ODL didn't prove to be the game changer every makes it out to be.

There is another theory which is the "Hiding the ODL" by simply not letting the sell of the XRP at the target end match the buy at the sending end....example:  US to MEX sends $40K - US then receives $40K and converts to XRP...sends across to MEX then converts XRP pesos in 2 unequal transactions like $15K and $25K...this would not trigger the ODL discovery algorithm.

Question is...did we see a drop in VOLUME (NOT ODL) but volume in general.    

Edited by itcdominic
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