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2 hours ago, SquaryBone said:

XRP price is flat-lining and then will fall through. Unless actual usage volume picks up significantly shortly there's no support.

Define significantly

What volume will utility need to be to move the needle you think ?

Oh, usage volume probably 35% higher than previously thought:  :)

https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/33234-mgi-odl-bitso-and-a-theory-about-the-price/?do=findComment&comment=829501

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3 hours ago, Frans said:

Define significantly

What volume will utility need to be to move the needle you think ?

Oh, usage volume probably 35% higher than previously thought:  :)

https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/33234-mgi-odl-bitso-and-a-theory-about-the-price/?do=findComment&comment=829501

From a theoretical standpoint utility volume should be 100% of total volume for having no downwards pressure :) Significantly: 70% of total volume? That would be a very solid foundation and bring more upside.

The volume could indeed be 35% higher than we think it is. But "35% of e.g. 1% of total volume" is still negligible. And if it's not and there doesn't seem to be upwards pressure that's not good either :) 1.6billion reported volume (I know it's difficult to know how valid these numbers are). How much $ value do we know of in ODL?

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33 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

From a theoretical standpoint utility volume should be 100% of total volume for having no downwards pressure :) Significantly: 70% of total volume? That would be a very solid foundation and bring more upside.

The volume could indeed be 35% higher than we think it is. But "35% of e.g. 1% of total volume" is still negligible. And if it's not and there doesn't seem to be upwards pressure that's not good either :) 1.6billion reported volume (I know it's difficult to know how valid these numbers are). How much $ value do we know of in ODL?

Yeah, reported volume is laughable. Cryptocompare shows a way more realistic volume. It's in line with the report from last year that showed that 95% of BTC volume is fake.

Cryptocompare shows 190 million today. Crypto compare Top Tier shows just 150 million, which is much more in line with what Ripple itself shows on the site. (Ripple doesn't show coinbase btw, strangely hilarious)

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/list/USD/1

https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/xrp-markets

So, going from that, let's say 200 million actual global daily volume, ODL might be responsible for 20% of global volume during workdays, weekends only have 4 million ODL as far as I can tell, and I am not clear what CCTT's volume metric is in the weekend. There were no more datapoints on utility-scan when I started looking into it  a little more in depth.

 

LOL, yeah, 100% would be nice, but 70% is certainly doable with only 10 out of a possible 22k corridors actually being open.

regards

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Here's a theory that fits the evidence better than any of the others propounded on this forum.

The more volume goes through ODL the more Ripple has to pay everyone involved in XRP,  which is immediately sold adding to the selling pressure on XRP.

We know Ripple pays remittance firms on an on-going basis, we know they have paid exchanges and there is very good reason to believe they pay market makers. That is the whole cycle. Nobody seems to make money from ODL unless Ripple pays them.

 

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1 hour ago, Frans said:

Yeah, reported volume is laughable. Cryptocompare shows a way more realistic volume. It's in line with the report from last year that showed that 95% of BTC volume is fake.

Cryptocompare shows 190 million today. Crypto compare Top Tier shows just 150 million, which is much more in line with what Ripple itself shows on the site. (Ripple doesn't show coinbase btw, strangely hilarious)

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/list/USD/1

https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/xrp-markets

So, going from that, let's say 200 million actual global daily volume, ODL might be responsible for 20% of global volume during workdays, weekends only have 4 million ODL as far as I can tell, and I am not clear what CCTT's volume metric is in the weekend. There were no more datapoints on utility-scan when I started looking into it  a little more in depth.

 

LOL, yeah, 100% would be nice, but 70% is certainly doable with only 10 out of a possible 22k corridors actually being open.

regards

I understand only a few corridors are active now. However there's only a fraction of those 22k corridors that do meaningful volume. This is not a simple calculation sadly, we can't just extrapolate. Nor in the existing corridors or with expanding to more corridors.

Do we have 40 mill$ XRP volume a day on ODL (I don't keep track of the number)?

Even if it hits that 100% of daily volume that would only support the current price (sub 20cents). Of course speculation is never 0%. For getting 2, 20, 200$ XRP that some are hoping for we'd need far bigger increase (and preferably in a small timeframe ;) ).

I still give it 2 years to see substantial (10x-50x) increase in volume. I'm not in it for 1xx$ XRP. 2-10$ would already be nice returns. All above it is a bonus :) Just waiting (im)patiently for those new corridors to be fired up.

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32 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

Do we have 40 mill$ XRP volume a day on ODL (I don't keep track of the number)?

Debatable.  Volume as seen on utility-scan seems to be hitting 20 million today.

But it occurred to me that instead of the 2 transactions, buy/sell. There are actually 4.

Moneygram buys, sends, sells.

The Market maker that sold XRP to Moneygram needs to replenish his inventory, so after he has sold to Moneygram, he will have to put in a buy order to replenish his XRP. On Bitstamp that's not a problem.

On the MXN-side, the exact opposite happens/should happen. Moneygram sells, MM must replenish his pesos inventory. Needs to sell his XRP for that.

So, instead of 2 transactions, there are actually 4, that all count for volume on the exchange.

For ODL:  https://utility-scan.com/#/dashboard

 

42 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

I understand only a few corridors are active now. However there's only a fraction of those 22k corridors that do meaningful volume. This is not a simple calculation sadly, we can't just extrapolate. Nor in the existing corridors or with expanding to more corridors.

True, that would be lovely simple. On the other hand, current volume through these 10 corridors is still very low, maybe as low as others' maximum is  :) 

 

49 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

Even if it hits that 100% of daily volume

lol, it just occurred to me that those 40 million are actually part of those 200 million of daily volume. So, it should be: ODL volume is at 25% of retail/trading/speculatory volume. 100% should be 'easily' attainable this year  :D

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Maybe I'm too dense to get this, but I still don't see how "utility volume" will have any affect at all on price, with the exception of when utility volume is enough to buy out the order book on an exchange. I mean even then, the transfer results in a near instant sell that theoretically over sells at the destinations. Market makers and arbitrage trading will keep these discrepancies balanced out amongst the exchanges.

I can imagine though that price will rise to a level that would accommodate these larger transactions. Essentially normalizing the price values across exchanges, but even with trillions of dollars flowing through ever day, unless a significant portion of total XRP tokens are being held by speculators, the price doesn't have to be much higher than it's is now to accommodate that kind of volume. I mean, with a 5 second transaction speed and tens of billions of tokens actively being traded, wouldn't a price around a dollar a token be enough to handle swift like volumes.

Yes, most tokens are held right now, but as utility continues to ramp up, more escrow tokens will be purchased each month. The whole system will continue to scale, growing in transaction volume but not necessarily in price. 

Aside from spill over from the arbitrage-like trading amongst all cryptocoins (aka the reason all coins gain and lose together) I see nothing increasing the XRP price for at least a decade, if ever.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Zerpple said:

Tal vez soy demasiado denso para entender esto, pero todavía no veo cómo el "volumen de la utilidad" tendrá algún efecto en el precio, con la excepción de cuando el volumen de la utilidad es suficiente para comprar la cartera de pedidos en un intercambio. Quiero decir, incluso entonces, la transferencia resulta en una venta casi instantánea que, en teoría, se vende en exceso en los destinos. Los creadores de mercado y el comercio de arbitraje mantendrán estas discrepancias equilibradas entre los intercambios.

Sin embargo, puedo imaginar que ese precio aumentará a un nivel que acomodaría estas transacciones más grandes. Esencialmente normalizando los valores de los precios en los intercambios, pero incluso con billones de dólares que fluyen todos los días, a menos que los especuladores mantengan una porción significativa del total de tokens XRP, el precio no tiene que ser mucho más alto de lo que es ahora para acomodar eso tipo de volumen Quiero decir, con una velocidad de transacción de 5 segundos y decenas de miles de millones de tokens que se comercializan activamente, ¿no sería suficiente un precio de alrededor de un dólar por token para manejar volúmenes tan rápidos?

Sí, la mayoría de los tokens se mantienen en este momento, pero a medida que la utilidad continúa aumentando, se comprarán más tokens de custodia cada mes. Todo el sistema continuará escalando, creciendo en volumen de transacciones pero no necesariamente en precio. 

Además del derrame del comercio similar al arbitraje entre todas las criptomonedas (también conocido como la razón por la que todas las monedas ganan y pierden juntas), no veo que nada aumente el precio de XRP durante al menos una década, si es que alguna vez lo hace.

 

 

for me it is easier:

the higher the volume of odl. less available (in those 3 seconds) of xrp, price increases. + speculation.

hug and hold

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7 hours ago, Zerpple said:

Maybe I'm too dense to get this, but I still don't see how "utility volume" will have any affect at all on price, with the exception of when utility volume is enough to buy out the order book on an exchange. I mean even then, the transfer results in a near instant sell that theoretically over sells at the destinations. Market makers and arbitrage trading will keep these discrepancies balanced out amongst the exchanges.

I can imagine though that price will rise to a level that would accommodate these larger transactions. Essentially normalizing the price values across exchanges, but even with trillions of dollars flowing through ever day, unless a significant portion of total XRP tokens are being held by speculators, the price doesn't have to be much higher than it's is now to accommodate that kind of volume. I mean, with a 5 second transaction speed and tens of billions of tokens actively being traded, wouldn't a price around a dollar a token be enough to handle swift like volumes.

Yes, most tokens are held right now, but as utility continues to ramp up, more escrow tokens will be purchased each month. The whole system will continue to scale, growing in transaction volume but not necessarily in price. 

Aside from spill over from the arbitrage-like trading amongst all cryptocoins (aka the reason all coins gain and lose together) I see nothing increasing the XRP price for at least a decade, if ever.

 

Price will rise from speculation on the utility value. It won't rise based on an increase of transactions - 3sec loops of buy/sell pressure. The deep liquidity will add tremendous value to xrp at some point, which should cause price to appreciate. In theory, of course ;)

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