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Thoughts on the BTC Halving...


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5 hours ago, RipplePiercing said:

Based on the required purchases reducing by 50% (and the volume being sustained) I would suggest that any price increases occurring now and simply due to hype? 

Anyone’s guess can be as good as any, but I think central banks printing trillions of dollars around the world and covid-19 flattening curves have alleviated world markets and panic selling which crypto was evidently not immune to.

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I disagree From Q2 2019 XRP Market Report, Click on the image to access the document Ripple was referring to. ________________________________________________________________

I think crypto is dominated by a type of investor with a narrow mindset that is deeply embedded in BTC values.  XRP will flounder until a new sort of investor enters the market.  These investors are a

The rest of the crypto market is still mostly tethered to the performance of BTC.  1,800 btc are created everyday and sold onto exchanges to make-up for the cost of mining.  That means at current pric

9 hours ago, Caracappa said:

I think there is both a delay in the effect as not a fully true effect as the main part of the bad performance is harder correction after bigger growth but mainly manipulation.

No that is not correct either.  IF you are going to say that the sales are having an effect,  then the dynamics of the market are such that the effect (if real) is instant.  The market reacts immediately to extra buy or sell pressure.

There are second order effects on perception and sentiment that might have a delay but they are second order.  The effect, if it is real at all, is instant.  So when you see no effect by stopping,  you know conclusively that there was no significance to the sales.

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I think Half-Man, Half-BearPig is right on all accounts.  Our expectations for utility adoption were way too early when we were talking about in in 17/18.  So were our expectations for another crypto spring akin to spring 2017.  I think Ripple probably thought things would go faster in the regulatory and liquidity department too, based on some of the general attitudes of some of their employees when they used to comment in the community more.  Progress in those departments is rolling quite nicely imo.

I've given up on hoping for it to do anything noticeable on price in any timeline now.  A bit of stoicism is necessary.

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30 minutes ago, mrhat75 said:

I think Half-Man, Half-BearPig is right on all accounts.  Our expectations for utility adoption were way too early when we were talking about in in 17/18.  So were our expectations for another crypto spring akin to spring 2017.  I think Ripple probably thought things would go faster in the regulatory and liquidity department too, based on some of the general attitudes of some of their employees when they used to comment in the community more.  Progress in those departments is rolling quite nicely imo.

I've given up on hoping for it to do anything noticeable on price in any timeline now.  A bit of stoicism is necessary.

Just don't guess, but go about one's business quietly and wait for the expected in its own unexpected timing.

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19 hours ago, Quadripple said:

Wanted to pick out this quote.. You are of course entitled to your opinion but I cannot fathom how you do not see the utility of XRP. If you read up it's hard not to see, in my opinion. Since you gamble on the greed of people and then invest in BTC and XRP, I wonder why you also picked XRP since to you it's just another altcoin without utility. Better focus on BTC only, since that's the herd coin, right?
 

Utility is a meme. Price doesn't follow. All the fluff about corridors and price is stagnant. XRP is in the top 3 and people think $0.21 is "cheap". More likely that new money from retail investors will flow into that than other coins that cost hundreds of dollars. 

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3 hours ago, Flintstone said:

That's because you can't see past your nose. Supply far outweighs demand right now.

I think crypto is dominated by a type of investor with a narrow mindset that is deeply embedded in BTC values.  XRP will flounder until a new sort of investor enters the market.  These investors are already here but not in the sort of numbers required to decouple from BTC algorithms built into the markets.

An interesting paragraph of the Q1 report mentions that Ripple believed XRP was beginning to decouple before the markets were hit by the corona virus crash.  I am not sure if this was happening, but you can see it happening in the profiles of Etoro investors who overwhelmingly choose to invest in XRP rather than BTC, ETH or any other coin.  Etoro are by and large newbies looking for good investment opportunities and not so interested in crypto cultural values.

It will be very interesting to watch what happens when XRP decouples.  People, many very seasoned investors on this forum, have become very emotional, disillusioned (and I think irrational) because of XRP's poor price performance since Dec 2017.   What happens when that is replaced with optimism about XRP's future?

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Ripple is very careful with news releases. I notice they do it either to hold the price level when the price is tanking or when they need to push it like during the '17 bull market. OfCourse sometimes news just has to come out based on timelines. End of last year Brad mentioned that they were going to release some news in Q1 but nothing major has come out and I guess if this might have to do with the bearish climate in Q1. 

There seems to be tons of hints on possible connections which other users have found. Even if I a minor part of this comes true, then I expect another blast at some point. I would expect that to occur during an overall bull market. So I think we would have to wait for the crypto market to turn proper bullish. Until such time, we bide our time. 

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I understand the proposition of price being affected by supply and demand.  And in edge cases or major sentiment moves I can see the effect in price action.

But if you look right now at the market I do not know how one can estimate the supply.  How many XRP are available for sale right now?  The supply.  Sure you can look at order books but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  Some, maybe most of that supply side will adjust itself upwards if price moves that way.  Sure you know the “available supply” but that’s not a real ‘ready to sell’ supply.

So how does anyone know what the supply is?

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@Gamblord Not quite sure what you are asking, but 'exhibiting signals' is speculative. When the total value of all mail being sent is greater than the total value of available postage stamps, then the price of postage stamps will have to increase. Currently, there are more postage stamps than mail being sent. More mail depots are being built which will increase demand for postage stamps.

The above is value from utility. The greater the volume and value of payments being sent, the greater the demand for XRP.

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@Dogowner5 If only we knew. The market making side of things we know very little about. But seeing how slowly the infrastructure takes to install and on-board customers, I doubt we'll ever see utility's value over speculative movements towards the upside. (Galgitron's jumping monkey analogy). Hopefully, some global regulatory clarity around holding digital assets may speed this up a little.

With greater volume from ODL in the future, I would expect speculative movements, up and down, to be dampened and for the price to become more stable. 'The Decoupling' if you will.

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On 4/30/2020 at 8:00 PM, ManBearPig said:

1,800 btc are created everyday and sold onto exchanges to make-up for the cost of mining.  That means at current prices, approximately 14 million dollars is required daily to buy into the market exchanges daily just to sustain those prices.  Next month, btc generation will be halved to 900 daily meaning only 7 million dollars will be required daily to sustain prices. 

I seem to be missing the point here. Rewards are halved, but why would mining costs be less? If it takes 18 million dollars to cover the cost of mining won't the amount of BTC sold stay the same (if BTC prices stay the same)?

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On 5/3/2020 at 4:59 PM, Magickarp said:

I seem to be missing the point here. Rewards are halved, but why would mining costs be less? If it takes 18 million dollars to cover the cost of mining won't the amount of BTC sold stay the same (if BTC prices stay the same)?

"Next month, btc generation will be halved to 900 daily meaning only 7 million dollars will be required daily to sustain prices. " 

What he's referring to is not the mining costs, but the money required to buy all the new BTC produced

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18 hours ago, Dario_o said:

"Next month, btc generation will be halved to 900 daily meaning only 7 million dollars will be required daily to sustain prices. " 

What he's referring to is not the mining costs, but the money required to buy all the new BTC produced

Do we have an idea of the value of BTC traded daily? 

Trying to find the information from CMC but it's not clear... If anybody has a source that would be great :dance4:

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