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Thoughts on the BTC Halving...


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Afternoon Everyone...

I've been off of XRPChat for a while (still holding the Zerps having been invested since mid-17') and I wanted to hear what peoples thoughts were on the Halving and what potential impact that may or may not have on the XRP Price.

I know the two should not be associated but regrettably we are (as this week is showing). 

Do any of the wiser, more knowledgable Crypto investors on here have any thoughts? @Chewiecoin I would be interested to hear your thoughts... 

Thanks all,

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I disagree From Q2 2019 XRP Market Report, Click on the image to access the document Ripple was referring to. ________________________________________________________________

I think crypto is dominated by a type of investor with a narrow mindset that is deeply embedded in BTC values.  XRP will flounder until a new sort of investor enters the market.  These investors are a

The rest of the crypto market is still mostly tethered to the performance of BTC.  1,800 btc are created everyday and sold onto exchanges to make-up for the cost of mining.  That means at current pric

29 minutes ago, RipplePiercing said:

Afternoon Everyone...

I've been off of XRPChat for a while (still holding the Zerps having been invested since mid-17') and I wanted to hear what peoples thoughts were on the Halving and what potential impact that may or may not have on the XRP Price.

I know the two should not be associated but regrettably we are (as this week is showing). 

Do any of the wiser, more knowledgable Crypto investors on here have any thoughts? @Chewiecoin I would be interested to hear your thoughts... 

Thanks all,

I do think S2F (stock to flow) is an interesting theory when implemented with Bitcoin, as Plan be has been mentioning. His math behind bitcoin-S2F is pretty solid.

My only issue with Bitcoin is you cant really do anything with it (utility), thus its tag of digital gold / store of value, but that has been tested of late.

The run up now seems totally fake imo. There was yet another USDT print-off and like clock work everything goes up.

The halvening will restrict mining output further, but then it all boils down to what Bitcoin is. 

Digital gold or digital fools gold?

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Exchanges will try to FOMO the **** out of everything, including this. After the halving something else will be the focal point so we can move the goal post. In the end it's simple supply and demand. How many people will require bitcoin to survive when great depression #2 is in full swing? It seems the mining of bitcoin will be fine, Chinese miners are SAFU to speak in crypto terms. And the big players are still well equipped to move the market however they want, but it always needs new blood. I think a lot will depend on whether real investors (not crypto related) will start seeing bitcoin as a safe haven. You'd have to be okay with your assets doubling and halving every now and then, so it's not for everyone.

But Bitcoin moves with US stocks, not with gold. So either it is or isn't a place to park your money while everything else is dying. I'll leave that conclusion to you.

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First off, XRP prices are strongly correlated to BTC prices as we have all seen. However, the people that are expecting BTC prices to go up just because BTC rewards are going to be cut in half, could be sorely mistaken. I understand that is generally what has happened historically, but we don't exactly have a long track record to go off of. I could see the exact opposite scenario happening. What if there is not enough new money coming in? In that case, there would simply be less incentive for mining BTC. That could lead to the price falling off the cliff. Obviously, BTC can't continue to double forever. At some point, this expectation is going to be proven false. 

Edited by xrp_sea
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The rest of the crypto market is still mostly tethered to the performance of BTC.  1,800 btc are created everyday and sold onto exchanges to make-up for the cost of mining.  That means at current prices, approximately 14 million dollars is required daily to buy into the market exchanges daily just to sustain those prices.  Next month, btc generation will be halved to 900 daily meaning only 7 million dollars will be required daily to sustain prices. 

If net daily purchasing continues to average 14 million daily, BTC price should go up and xrp price would have a high likelihood of following.  I think in part why xrp didn't follow during last year's BTC pump is that XRP was blindly overhyped more so than most and all the moon boys got wrecked who have noticeably capitulated into other cryptos since then.

If XRP ever appreciates in price based of its utility performance, I speculate that is a much more long-term effect when compared to the next bitcoin cycle.

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14 hours ago, ManBearPig said:

I think in part why xrp didn't follow during last year's BTC pump is that XRP was blindly overhyped more so than most and all the moon boys got wrecked who have noticeably capitulated into other cryptos since then.

I disagree

From Q2 2019 XRP Market Report,

2c36281dc385486448cd50b5f329db60.png

Click on the image to access the document Ripple was referring to.

a6485f7ecd3574947d36daf68e8ff9b7.png

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

4bc23a8bf8d5db92c487c61a9fedd43a.png

 

a53524fdffc3b17e034b1c12a0523afd.png

 

Below is a comparison by quarter of the XRP sales by Ripple with the XRP/BTC evolution

 

ESH0jcp-Ws-AMTHub.jpg

 

Ripple started significantly selling XRP in Q4 2017 and peaked the sales during the run in Q2 2019.

The moment Ripple started to drastically reduce their sales, XRP/BTC remained flat, no matter what BTC was doing.

 

Ever since Ripple was selling XRP, they were reducing its price against USD, but it is easier to realize this effect when you compare XRP to BTC, for a few obvious reasons:

  • BTC leads the market
  • BTC gaining value relatively means alts gaining value

If you chose to compare XRP to USD you would not be able to tell whether or not the price was being reduced by Ripple' sales.

  • If BTC was going up, XRP was slightly going up
  • If BTC was staying flat, XRP was slightly moving down
  • If BTC was going down, XRP was significantly moving down

 

RESULTS

BTC
18 Dec 2018: 3,160
26 Jun 201914,000
Increase: 443%

ETH
18 Dec 2018: 83
26 Jun 2019: 363
Increase: 437%

XRP
16 Dec 2018: 0.283
22 Jun 2019: 0.506
Increase: 78%

Edited by JannaOneTrick
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1 hour ago, JannaOneTrick said:

Ever since Ripple was selling XRP, they were reducing its price against USD, but it is easier to realize this effect when you compare XRP to BTC, for a few obvious reasons:

Wait what?   Your graph there shows the exact opposite of that.

Look at the price action during and after the drastic reduction in sales.  If your theory was correct there would have been a big rebound after this ‘selling pressure’ was removed.  Flatline.

Anyone that still believes the nonsense that Ripple sales were the reason price went down or underperformed hasn’t looked at the beautiful real world experiment results.

Sales stopped.  No effect.  Case closed.

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9 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

Wait what?   Your graph there shows the exact opposite of that.

Look at the price action during and after the drastic reduction in sales.  If your theory was correct there would have been a big rebound after this ‘selling pressure’ was removed.  Flatline.

Anyone that still believes the nonsense that Ripple sales were the reason price went down or underperformed hasn’t looked at the beautiful real world experiment results.

Sales stopped.  No effect.  Case closed.

Although I'm still of the opinion the Ripple sales are used as FUD to a full extend Janna's graph shows a point. As did Ripple confess they used the wrong metrics to determine their sell percentage.

She is showing the comparison to BTC, not the USD. So once the sell pressure stopped it indeed flatlined meaning it copied BTC one on one.

On the other hand, imo the reason XRP did worse in the market was because it grew exceptionally higher and thus corrected harder. Even on the XRP/BTC chart it's XRP growing a couple of times and then correcting compared to BTC. Now it's back to an equilibrium so it will start copying BTC again untill the next pumps of one or the other.

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14 hours ago, ManBearPig said:

If net daily purchasing continues to average 14 million daily, BTC price should go up and xrp price would have a high likelihood of following. 

This I can agree with... 24hour volume has increased 50% since the beginning of April (66BN as of the last 24 hours, from 40BN on 01/04/20) 

Based on the required purchases reducing by 50% (and the volume being sustained) I would suggest that any price increases occurring now and simply due to hype? 

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Posted (edited)

The halfing will lead to miners dumping less on buyers. This is what led to higher demand and prices. Will it happen again? Based on the historical evidence I'm going to say yes. Some will say two data points are not significant to count as evidence. Fine, make your bet. Either call or drop you have to make a decision. 

If you are holding onto zerps you are making an even steeper gamble because the XRP price depends on BTC succeeding AND the mania spillling onto alt-coins. I still think this is an asymmetric bet and worthwhile. 

Hedgefund managers I listen to are bullish on post-halfing bitcoin. They predict 20k price although their time-frames differ. Some are saying  6-9 months while others think 18-24.

Needless to say I own both. I don't believe in the utility of bitcoin or XRP. Instead I know that human greed doesn't change and I can rely on the Fed to keep printing. People will chase bigger gains with more risk. Miners will be forced to dump less bitcoin onto exchanges and Ripple is already doing a good job of not dumping their coins. Barring any disasters, things are looking good.

Edited by Gamblord
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25 minutes ago, Gamblord said:

I don't believe in the utility of bitcoin or XRP. Instead I know that human greed doesn't change and I can rely on the Fed to keep printing. People will chase bigger gains with more risk.

Wanted to pick out this quote.. You are of course entitled to your opinion but I cannot fathom how you do not see the utility of XRP. If you read up it's hard not to see, in my opinion. Since you gamble on the greed of people and then invest in BTC and XRP, I wonder why you also picked XRP since to you it's just another altcoin without utility. Better focus on BTC only, since that's the herd coin, right?
 

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3 hours ago, Caracappa said:

She is showing the comparison to BTC, not the USD. So once the sell pressure stopped it indeed flatlined meaning it copied BTC one on one.

 

With respect that is not actually correct.  Look again at the graph.  The periods are offset by one quarter in terms of vertical alignment but if you look you can see that the Bitcoin dominance (the direct correlation between XRP price and BTC price) had started while the sales were still ongoing.

Furthermore,  if there had been a pressure on XRP price from sales that was having an effect,  and that pressure was lifted,  then the expectation would be that there would be a resurgence after being held down.  That didn’t happen no matter which way you priced XRP...  in Satoshi or in dollars.

There was a very direct, real world experiment carried out:   “Ripple keep the price down by sales“,  stop the sales, expect some resurgence.  If no resurgence then there could not have been the price suppression effect that so many loud voices kept proclaiming.

I know that all those voices don’t appear to want to admit they were totally wrong,  but you can’t argue with reality...  the sales stopped and there was no effect.  Which means they never were a significant effect.

 

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3 minutes ago, Dogowner5 said:

With respect that is not actually correct.  Look again at the graph.  The periods are offset by one quarter in terms of vertical alignment but if you look you can see that the Bitcoin dominance (the direct correlation between XRP price and BTC price) had started while the sales were still ongoing.

Furthermore,  if there had been a pressure on XRP price from sales that was having an effect,  and that pressure was lifted,  then the expectation would be that there would be a resurgence after being held down.  That didn’t happen no matter which way you priced XRP...  in Satoshi or in dollars.

There was a very direct, real world experiment carried out:   “Ripple keep the price down by sales“,  stop the sales, expect some resurgence.  If no resurgence then there could not have been the price suppression effect that so many loud voices kept proclaiming.

I know that all those voices don’t appear to want to admit they were totally wrong,  but you can’t argue with reality...  the sales stopped and there was no effect.  Which means they never were a significant effect.

 

I think there is both a delay in the effect as not a fully true effect as the main part of the bad performance is harder correction after bigger growth but mainly manipulation.

It started correlated in 2017 with the bearmarket corrections, then lost it's correlation to pick it back up with a delay in Q2 to Q3 2019.

Discussed the same point with Janna earlier that I think the 'Ripple selling' argument is for the biggest part manipulated and used as a narrative for FUD
-Ripple sells: 'please stop doing that Ripple   
-Ripple stops: 'See, there is no demand for XRP'.

Imo it did have effect, but not the effect we've seen. Ripple stopped selling, whales stopped mimicking and amplify the effect with a delay but kept suppression just enough to make sure it won't outpace BTC just yet, hence the flatliner. BTC is the asset needed to kickstart this market.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, JannaOneTrick said:

I disagree

From Q2 2019 XRP Market Report,

2c36281dc385486448cd50b5f329db60.png

Click on the image to access the document Ripple was referring to.

a6485f7ecd3574947d36daf68e8ff9b7.png

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

4bc23a8bf8d5db92c487c61a9fedd43a.png

 

a53524fdffc3b17e034b1c12a0523afd.png

 

Below is a comparison by quarter of the XRP sales by Ripple with the XRP/BTC evolution

 

ESH0jcp-Ws-AMTHub.jpg

 

Ripple started significantly selling XRP in Q4 2017 and peaked the sales during the run in Q2 2019.

The moment Ripple started to drastically reduce their sales, XRP/BTC remained flat, no matter what BTC was doing.

 

Ever since Ripple was selling XRP, they were reducing its price against USD, but it is easier to realize this effect when you compare XRP to BTC, for a few obvious reasons:

  • BTC leads the market
  • BTC gaining value relatively means alts gaining value

If you chose to compare XRP to USD you would not be able to tell whether or not the price was being reduced by Ripple' sales.

  • If BTC was going up, XRP was slightly going up
  • If BTC was staying flat, XRP was slightly moving down
  • If BTC was going down, XRP was significantly moving down

 

RESULTS

BTC
18 Dec 2018: 3,160
26 Jun 201914,000
Increase: 443%

ETH
18 Dec 2018: 83
26 Jun 2019: 363
Increase: 437%

XRP
16 Dec 2018: 0.283
22 Jun 2019: 0.506
Increase: 78%

I think xrp was overbought and manipulated emotionally to have high expectations too soon. Programmatic/OTC sales probably affected the price in some way but I don’t think the sales based on the volume of xrp was enough to drastically lose momentum against xrp/btc.

Additionally when Ripple was criticized for sales Brad Garlinghouse noted that when you compared the inflation rate to circulating supply of xrp versus bitcoin, it was always less every quarter.
 

As others have already noted it is my belief that xrp is more at equilibrium after the past year’s shakeout which coincidentally has me excited for a potential bitcoin driven bull run in the years ahead. If XRP adoption sneaks in sooner then I will be elated.

 

Edited by ManBearPig
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