Will crypto rebound?

[Guest]

Seems like the global markets will be stabilized with QE measures in the short term. 

What are your long-term thoughts?

Will crypto projects like XRP thrive in this environment?

@KarmaCoverage

@Wandering_Dog

@Eric123

[KarmaCoverage]

 XRP and RippleNet are both still very young. I think on a human lifetime scale, I'd say they are both about 5-7 years old (literally and figuratively). Like most humans they will not reach their productivity stage, when they create a lot of value for others, until they hit at least "late 20s/early 30s". I'd expect it to take another couple 2-3-5 years for the network to really gain run away traction.

One of Brad's phrases was crawl > walk > run. I think the network is around the end of the crawling growth stage. I see nothing that worries me about Ripple or XRP. If anything this virus situation is shining a light on the global monetary system, and RippleNet is right there, as the hot new young monetary actress on the global stage.

I truly dont see anything to worry about re Ripple or XRP. This public market downturn was already expected, although the virus has both served as both a trigger for a correction, and exacerbated the correction's speed.

[Julian_Williams]

On 3/25/2020 at 4:59 PM, KarmaCoverage said:

 XRP and RippleNet are both still very young. I think on a human lifetime scale, I'd say they are both about 5-7 years old (literally and figuratively). Like most humans they will not reach their productivity stage, when they create a lot of value for others, until they hit at least "late 20s/early 30s". I'd expect it to take another couple 2-3-5 years for the network to really gain run away traction.

One of Brad's phrases was crawl > walk > run. I think the network is around the end of the crawling growth stage. I see nothing that worries me about Ripple or XRP. If anything this virus situation is shining a light on the global monetary system, and RippleNet is right there, as the hot new young monetary actress on the global stage.

I truly dont see anything to worry about re Ripple or XRP. This public market downturn was already expected, although the virus has both served as both a trigger for a correction, and exacerbated the correction's speed.

I agree 100% with that analogy, and would add the child is already allowed to work in the factory as a child labourer. a seven year old does not make much difference, but a ten year can contribute quite a lot.  Also at what point do the adults recognise the sense in investing in the child which is their future?  That can happen at any time.  This child is some savant!

[Wandering_Dog]

USD is making a big push for global settlement asset again via digital USD. They know they have to increase the resilience of the payment system, and having an open ledger is a part of that. Once the fed ledger is open, they don't have to bail out GSIB balance sheets, further, they could let the shadow banking system also fail. Currently, that's not possible. 

With a digital USD, you'll see opportunities for narrow banking, and local banking, if they get the right regulations in place. Essentially, the fed knows that if they don't make their ledger an open global settlement layer, then another layer will step in. In this case, the dollar will likely completely supplant BTC (and XRP) as a novel concept for global realtime settlement. The Americans are using this crisis to openly cement their position as World Central Bank. Digital USD on an open ledger negates the use case for crypto. It will probably continue to exist, but its future is most likely as an incorporated component of a global fiat settlement system under sovereign control not an independent system.   

[Summer2011]

2 hours ago, Wandering_Dog said:

USD is making a big push for global settlement asset again via digital USD. They know they have to increase the resilience of the payment system, and having an open ledger is a part of that. Once the fed ledger is open, they don't have to bail out GSIB balance sheets, further, they could let the shadow banking system also fail. Currently, that's not possible. 

With a digital USD, you'll see opportunities for narrow banking, and local banking, if they get the right regulations in place. Essentially, the fed knows that if they don't make their ledger an open global settlement layer, then another layer will step in. In this case, the dollar will likely completely supplant BTC (and XRP) as a novel concept for global realtime settlement. The Americans are using this crisis to openly cement their position as World Central Bank. Digital USD on an open ledger negates the use case for crypto. It will probably continue to exist, but its future is most likely as an incorporated component of a global fiat settlement system under sovereign control not an independent system.   

Meaning they will be no room for XRP?

[mrhat75]

Yep, even if millions die, this thing is a blip in humanity.  We will move on.

[Dogowner5]

2 hours ago, Wandering_Dog said:

The Americans are using this crisis to openly cement their position as World Central Bank. Digital USD on an open ledger negates the use case for crypto.

If Wandering dog is correct then we all should sell now.  XRP has no future.  It’s most unlikely that the US would be unable to implement a digital dollar,  so if he is right we are doomed.

So I wonder if there is a flaw in his argument.  I don’t know enough to say.

[Julian_Williams]

9 minutes ago, Dogowner5 said:

If Wandering dog is correct then we all should sell now.  XRP has no future.  It’s most unlikely that the US would be unable to implement a digital dollar,  so if he is right we are doomed.

So I wonder if there is a flaw in his argument.  I don’t know enough to say.

It seems to me that massive unlimited QE will devalue the dollar's position as a reserve currency, not enhance it.   To trade in digital dollars you still have to buy the digital dollars with pounds, yen, Euros or whatever.  For that you need some sort of bridging asset. 

Do you really think the EU will make digital dollars into the national currency of the EU?   No country will give up their national currencies to adopt the digital dollar.

[nakedzzrp]

5 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

It seems to me that massive unlimited QE will devalue the dollar's position as a reserve currency, not enhance it.   To trade in digital dollars you still have to buy the digital dollars with pounds, yen, Euros or whatever.  For that you need some sort of bridging asset. 

Do you really think the EU will make digital dollars into the national currency of the EU?   No country will give up their national currencies to adopt the digital dollar.

By that logic do you really think the EU will adopt a "bridge currency" from a private venture capitalist backed company in California?

[Dogowner5]

1 hour ago, nakedzzrp said:

By that logic do you really think the EU will adopt a "bridge currency" from a private venture capitalist backed company in California?

There is a difference here...  they are not ‘adopting’ it, they are merely using it as the bridge.  They still have their own currency...  they didn’t adopt anything.

[JA8]

In my opinion, crypto in general will probably see a safe haven bid. Particularly as the legacy financial system falls apart quite thoroughly over coming weeks and years.  Hedges in this respect have historically been the dollar, bonds and gold/silver. Let's take a look at the dollar (six month DXY chart):

 
As we can see, the USD has been pumping quite a bit. Precious metals have relatively underperformed and will probably keep underperforming until the USD begins to look top-ish. This could be unfolding right now... note the correction in USD above which is probably worth keeping an eye on.

A parallel for the USD may be BTC's blow-off top in 2017. As it started to look bloated, people started speculating more in other coins. Once BTC began plummeting in earnest, everyone rushed to the exits - and this is when we saw XRP launch like a rocket.

Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble.

A major crisis like this has never happened before in BTC's lifetime, so one cannot be absolutely certain that BTC will perform well. However, as an "escape route" from fiat currency and from the legacy financial system, it does have a sound argument. As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet.

Whilst XRP does not have the same characteristics as BTC, if the rush into BTC happens - as seems likely to me - then the wider crypto market will probably receive some speculative overflow bids.

Personally, I've lightened up on XRP (I already owned a fair amount) in order to buy more gold and silver. I think there's a pretty good chance that silver in particular will outperform crypto. I've also lightened up on bank deposits as I don't trust the banks to remain solvent either ($10trn global reserves, $300trn+ global debt, $1.2qdrn in derivatives). I'm telling everyone at the moment to at least consider the risks of bank defaults. Better safe than sorry.

I expect more deflation to come in the short to medium term, and the corresponding scramble for cash to affect all asset classes including safe havens. As investors in crypto, what we're looking for is the later inflationary effects - or the threat of inflation - to kick in.

Good luck all.

Edited April 2, 2020 by JA8

[Trisky]

1 hour ago, JA8 said:

Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble.

Do you understand why silver is still under performing? As it has been for a long time.

1 hour ago, JA8 said:

As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet.

Could that be done with silver as well? More importantly, would that make any sense at all in your opinion?

And if you buy gold, how do you (avoiding premiums) or do you buy it via PAXG or other means?

Just a thought; when this crisis thing ends sooner than expected and people will liquidate their Gold positions and get on with their lives creating the 'Gold bubble' to pop while silver is still under performing. Would that be a scenario to keep in mind? Perhaps hedge with 

 

 

Saw this chart of the Futures performance last 3 months with a 20% loss on Silver. Amazing to see the price of silver only 200% above 1975

 

 

 

If countries start buying up even more gold. Could that have an effect on the silver price as well in a positive way? 

Or maybe another Rhodium opportunity under 6k comes along ;-)

[JA8]

21 minutes ago, Trisky said:

Do you understand why silver is still under performing? As it has been for a long time.

Due to the illegal selling of non-existent silver in the paper markets... a major scam about to crumble in the wake of this crisis imo, as they're selling even more of it (the non existent stuff) to raise cash / cover margin calls. Real silver is scarce... can't really find any at the UK at the moment... even at the Royal Mint (last time I checked). People are buying real silver hand over fist.

I buy gold coins because it's CGT and VAT exempt. At least I was buying gold coins - quite difficult now. Shortages everywhere. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by JA8

[Julian_Williams]

I agree that silver might be a better short term buy, but I will just hold my XRP and wait for the flywheel effect to hit the markets.  The energy is building and I have no idea when investors will notice that they have an opportunity to get into something very early.  I am personally confident that over time XRP will become the standard for ODL, and ODL is destined to be very big indeed.

 

[Trisky]

4 hours ago, JA8 said:

Due to the illegal selling of non-existent silver in the paper markets... a major scam about to crumble in the wake of this crisis imo, as they're selling even more of it (the non existent stuff) to raise cash / cover margin calls. Real silver is scarce... can't really find any at the UK at the moment... even at the Royal Mint (last time I checked). People are buying real silver hand over fist.

Figures.

Will there be a price correction in the rate coming because the scarcity at the moment? 

Quote

I buy gold coins because it's CGT and VAT exempt. At least I was buying gold coins - quite difficult now. Shortages everywhere. 

Thank for the info. Appreciate it.

33 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I agree that silver might be a better short term buy, but I will just hold my XRP and wait for the flywheel effect to hit the markets.  

In any other situation I would have done the same. My interest came from having valuables to trade and prepare besides a lucrative/risky investment like XRP.

And if you don't spread any risk, isn't that a bit foolish if I may ask?