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facts_dispenser

The big problem with XRP, and why you'll be waiting (a very long time)

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On 1/24/2020 at 5:01 PM, facts_dispenser said:

Hi Lysistrada, thank you for the detailed response.

I am delighted with your response. Our brains think very much the same, it seems, with our similar thought processes and identical price estimation. I am even more happy to see you bring up the term usury, a word that seems to have been lost as far as modern vocabularies go, which now goes by the term "interest". I am fully aware of usury being the primary driver of wealth for banks, and did not highlight this in my posts or thought process because my original post was designed to be easily understood by a modern mind, I didn't want to add too many layers of complexity or research... hence its brevity.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, except the point about a more expedited adoption of XRP technology than usual when you started talking about nostro/vostro accounts becoming unnecessary in paragraph 4. Indeed I am not anti-XRP at all, but at the same time I am not even pro-XRP (though my stance is), I am just a realist. I simply take the presented facts of which I can obtain, and try to organize and then reorganize them into a form where there is little to no alternative interpretation.

On a related note, I am an automation/DevOps engineer in charge of an automation project for one of the largest networking organization in the world, and I can tell you, stuff moves slowly even here; however, the outcome is completely worth it. Gone are the days where you would manually configure each and every networking component on an individual basis. Enter DevOps, where you can configure hundreds of networking components at will within a fraction of the time. This field is still in its infancy - for example, Cisco are going to release new automation certifications next month (previously they had none), and cloud certifications are relatively recent (Google Cloud have just released the beta version of their DevOps certificate) and are constantly being reviewed - it's almost a new sub-industry. Automation is a long, drawn out process, and XRP's motivation is rooted in automation - you would need to create new jobs, new training schemes, recruit new people, in order to support mass adoption of blockchain technologies. Given the state of cloud/DevOps, and to then infer that banks are going to adopt the XRP ledger anything inside of 5 years from now... Ha. Haha. 

facts dispenser.

I suggest you take a look at how industries evolve historically. Kodak thought no one would use digital photography, why change what works right? Not that they couldn't but they didn't and we know where Kodak is now. Sometimes the change is so fundamental and disruptive to the way business is done in an industry that the organization does not have a choice but to adopt and adopt fast or risk losing out to competitors.

Plus digital asset strategy is not going to be a choice for Banks, it will be an obligation. If you pay attention to ECB and Fed and other CBs, you will hear about the expedited approach to utilizing CBDCs. That's a top-down change, nobody will be asking a operations director at a bank like Santander as to whether he would like to update the systems or not, they will simply be telling the banks to do it. That's how it rolls. This does not mean XRP will be forced upon banks, but digital assets are coming in and coming in strong and regardless of whether they are CBDCs or other public or private issues they will be utilized in banking and much sooner than you think.

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3 hours ago, Eric123 said:

The window for Ripple's business is not that long.  If XRP does not have enough liquidity to be used for international currency transfers within I'd say 2 years then it will have failed and another token will fill the space XRP hoped to.  As far as reaching $30 - XRP will get dragged along in the next bull market which is starting now.  We won't have to wait 10 years to see XRP reach $30 - if it doesn't happen in the next two years or so, it never will. 

With your comment, I'm assuming you suggest concentrating investment into XRP for the 2020 bull market.

I myself was thinking of investing in bitcoin due to its inevitable rise with the halving-induced bull market, and then reinvest the gains into XRP as I don't believe XRP's price will increase much; and however long Ripple decide to take, I don't think XRP will ever be displaced due to their monopoly in the crypto liquidity market (unless stellar lumens develops more...).

On the flip side, I could be completely wrong and XRP could shoot up to somewhere in the $9 region in 2020 which is something I believe you are anticipating; another thing that supports your side is the fact that the bitcoin and XRP graphs generally correlate, implying that XRP must move..

Tough decisions.

Edited by facts_dispenser

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47 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

On the flip side, I could be completely wrong and XRP could shoot up to somewhere in the $9 region in 2020 which is something I believe you are anticipating;

Exactly.  Here is how I see it happening. I think Bitcoin and the ALTs begin to move up from here.  XRP which has basically lagged should get a big jolt which moves it's price around $5 - $ 10 about 6-8 months prior to Bitcoin making its parabolic run.  After Bitcoin tops out for this cycle -  XRP will then go parabolic 3-4x it's price.  I think this cycle brings Bitcoin above $300,000 and XRP above $30. 

Buying Bitcoin and putting the gains into XRP could work out great, but XRP can move suddenly and violently and those moves are easy to miss.  Literally XRP could be .75 tomorrow.  I myself wouldn't feel comfortable not owning some XRP and Bitcoin. 

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57 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

inevitable rise with the halving-induced bull market

I don’t get this 🤔 It’s only happened twice so it’s hardly a pattern. Although the halving adds scarcity, you still need demand and without a fundamental use case, I’m not sure where that demand comes from.

If it does happen, I think it may be its last. Best of luck to you 🙏

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31 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, facts_dispenser said:

With your comment, I'm assuming you suggest concentrating investment into XRP for the 2020 bull market.

I myself was thinking of investing in bitcoin due to its inevitable rise with the halving-induced bull market, and then reinvest the gains into XRP as I don't believe XRP's price will increase much; and however long Ripple decide to take, I don't think XRP will ever be displaced due to their monopoly in the crypto liquidity market (unless stellar lumens develops more...).

On the flip side, I could be completely wrong and XRP could shoot up to somewhere in the $9 region in 2020 which is something I believe you are anticipating; another thing that supports your side is the fact that the bitcoin and XRP graphs generally correlate, implying that XRP must move..

Tough decisions.

$9 in 2020 is wishful thinking IMHO. I don't see BTC breaking $20,000 this year. I expect it to top at $15,000. 2021 is when I expect BTC to pass $20,000. We are still in the beginning of a multi-year bullrun. $3,200 was the BTC bottom. The frenzy that everyone remembers from 2017 came at the end of a bullrun. This one is just beginning. My prediction is that XRP remains under $1 in 2020.

Edited by RippleFan4124

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6 hours ago, RippleFan4124 said:

 

$9 in 2020 is wishful thinking IMHO. I don't see BTC breaking $20,000 this year. I expect it to top at $15,000. 2021 is when I expect BTC to pass $20,000. We are still in the beginning of a multi-year bullrun. $3,200 was the BTC bottom. The frenzy that everyone remembers from 2017 came at the end of a bullrun. This one is just beginning. My prediction is that XRP remains under $1 in 2020.

I think more like you , I'd like XRP to get to 3$ or more this year but I'm sure we'll stay under the 1$ ; let's see 

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6 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Exactly.  Here is how I see it happening. I think Bitcoin and the ALTs begin to move up from here.  XRP which has basically lagged should get a big jolt which moves it's price around $5 - $ 10 about 6-8 months prior to Bitcoin making its parabolic run.  After Bitcoin tops out for this cycle -  XRP will then go parabolic 3-4x it's price.  I think this cycle brings Bitcoin above $300,000 and XRP above $30. 

Buying Bitcoin and putting the gains into XRP could work out great, but XRP can move suddenly and violently and those moves are easy to miss.  Literally XRP could be .75 tomorrow.  I myself wouldn't feel comfortable not owning some XRP and Bitcoin. 

I once read an analysts piece on the ATH histories of companies which went on to become successes. He identified a pattern whereby due to early speculation, a stock would shoot up and set an impressive ATH only to then suffer from a big pullback which would last a year or more. The interesting observation that really stuck with me, was that on average, when these companies would eventually enjoy another bull run, that the ATH would be about 3x higher than the first. If this analysts observations hold true for xrp; despite it not being a stock; then that would mean that our next ATH would reach $9 or more. I'm eager to see how this plays out as I think this is quite possible from the "tipping point" perspective that Ripple mentions in their latest markets report. I feel as if 2020 is going to be a year where those who've been on the fence about xrp, are going to look back saying "why didn't I buy it back when...."   

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You can't TA any of this. April 2017 happened because of tether and December 2017 happened because of heavy manipulation as well and ended according to the former CFTC Chairman because of the Trump administration. Mnuchin said he wouldn't touch Bitcoin and if a bull run is dependent on Bitcoin, being that there isn't a truthful economic movement pattern to scale out yet, this is all still very much air. The only thing keeping it from going to zero is the money in it already. Digital and bridge assets have a future but I think the landscape drastically shifts. The biggest TA for XRP is the MGI stock price/the 'testnets' of XRP will likely be in full swing soon and that is the first biggie. If that company folds it's not a positive indicator in my opinion.

Edited by 1776isHere

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6 hours ago, Eric123 said:

I'm pretty sure a lot of people on this board got into crypto during the hype of 2017 and have only experienced the brief euphoria followed by the long winter.  Because of that you guys really don't know what it's like to get in before the bull market and go for the ride of your life, basically all you have experienced is the pain of the long winter.  So it's understandable that your expectations are tempered with disappointment and the high projections for XRP and BTC look impossible.    But being in since (just) before the 2013 bull run I can tell you crypto always surprised to the Upside as well as the downside. But we are headed toward experiencing the Upside again. :)

Millennials - Gen X (myself) - Boomers - people are people, there is no difference.  Each generation has it's own challenges to overcome and the older generation always looks to the younger one and calls them soft -   this has been going on since Ancient times and it's not gonna stop (it's human nature).  Don't take it too seriously.   

This time, it may be a good idea to take some profit.

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17 hours ago, ed1 said:

This time, it may be a good idea to take some profit.

Taking profits is always a good idea but that being said.

There were a few reasons why I didn't take profits in the previous run up. 

For one my ALTS would have been short term cap gains (it still would have been dramatically better to sell and buy back later - in hindsight this makes a lot of sense but it is very hard to pick the top/bottom.)

Second in regards to Bitcoin - I am not so much waiting for price as I am waiting for the space to mature and bitcoin to go mainstream, here are a few things I want to see before I start to cash in/spend my Bitcoin.

ETF's, Institutional Investment in Bitcoin (ie. Hedge funds, Pension Funds, Mutual Funds) - Apps/Social Awareness that make spending/sending bitcoin easy ie. Boomers like Peter Schiff being able to use Bitcoin without losing it and yelling at their computer.  Governments using Bitcoin to settle trade agreements. ie Iran/Zimbabwe/Venezuela selling exports for Bitcoin.

Mind you these all don't have to occur but these are what I'm waiting for re: bitcoin. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Taking profits is always a good idea but that being said.

There were a few reasons why I didn't take profits in the previous run up. 

For one my ALTS would have been short term cap gains (it still would have been dramatically better to sell and buy back later - in hindsight this makes a lot of sense but it is very hard to pick the top/bottom.)

Second in regards to Bitcoin - I am not so much waiting for price as I am waiting for the space to mature and bitcoin to go mainstream, here are a few things I want to see before I start to cash in/spend my Bitcoin.

ETF's, Institutional Investment in Bitcoin (ie. Hedge funds, Pension Funds, Mutual Funds) - Apps/Social Awareness that make spending/sending bitcoin easy ie. Boomers like Peter Schiff being able to use Bitcoin without losing it and yelling at their computer.  Governments using Bitcoin to settle trade agreements. ie Iran/Zimbabwe/Venezuela selling exports for Bitcoin.

Mind you these all don't have to occur but these are what I'm waiting for re: bitcoin. 

 

Isnt bitcoin too slow to be used as a way to spend? And I can't imagine pension funds especially an American or Western fund would risk their money on an asset that's essentially controlled by a cartel of Chinese miners! That would be quite irresponsible of them to do that 

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