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The big problem with XRP, and why you'll be waiting (a very long time)


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Yawn

Full maturity (whatever that means) might take a decade. But I don't see why we couldn't crush ATH in the next 6 months to 5 years. Even if mainly speculative.

I don't think Ripple wants to **** around and take their sweet sweet time. They're pushing for regulation and already have MGI as their poster child, driving volume and new corridors.

I think that once we get a decent number of corridors open and some more volume between all of them, it won't be too long before more institutions start jumping on. Maybe not big banks right away, but possibly. Asia is heating up. Once the first big dominos fall, many more will jump on board.

We don't need full full maturity to potentially drive the price up to values that would be life changing to many hodlers here.

Your guess is as good as anyone's. Who really knows? We're all just guessing and have zero credibility.

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Can I just remind people here that XRP is the most used-in-business crypto out there? Here you go: https://utility-scan.com/#/dashboard Did we forget that? You think that counts for ZERO in a speculative bull run? It's converting $5M of fiat a day from one currency to another.  No other crypto is doing that. Forget about utility volume affecting price.  Think about speculation when the world's attention once again returns to the cryptospace in the next bull run.  The price has dragged people so down they forget the basics here.

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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2 hours ago, lysistrada said:

Ok, so first off.  Thank you for the topic. While I am going to play devil's advocate below, I want to say that don't really disagree with you.  And for those of us who aren't into XRP because we simply are trying to make some fast cash, your timeline is entirely acceptable and - in fact - in my case I accumulate gradually and HODL based upon literally the price projection you have suggested; $30 USD in a decade.  I suspect this is very conservative, but that's literally the number I use. I would be delighted to reach that.

And... I would like to first support your point by stating something that I have always said.  Most banks - save for some of the ones with truly speculative principal investing arms like Goldman - really just want to make money through usury.  That's it.  They make money by lending money at a higher rate of interest than they payout for those who put their money in their bank.  It's the age old formula for true wealth building.  At their core, this is who banks are.  Now... that said... They have to be able to send money domestically and internationally because that's what customers want/need, but in the end that's not their focused profit center.  Lending money is and so innovative new tech is really not that compelling to them even though being able to send money cheap and fast could be used by certain banks seeking to currying direct customer favor both on the consumer and business side.  But I agree that this is a value prop for them, but not one that's going to make their turtle pace really increase much.

Here's something you are not thinking about, it appears.  At least in this paragraph you've written.  I don't mean to suggest you are not aware of it.

But the value prop for ripple's software is not only that when used in tandem with ODL/XRP for settlement, nostro/vostro accounts become unnecessary... it's also an entirely superior bi-directional messaging system that drastically reduces their risk of loss from fraud and abuse.  This should not be disruptive tech, because it's so simple and basic, but it is because banks are so backward in their adoption of technology (to your point).  And this aspect - I believe - is in fact compelling enough to make banks move fast.  I will confine the remainder of this discussion to the domestic US ACH system for simplicity, but these concepts apply to international money transfers as well.

I own a small business that needs to move money relatively fast in order to be successful.  This is not a theoretical, by the way, this is true.  And in order to move money from my company to a recipient on a same-day basis, I have to use the current ACH system and I have to originate an ACH credit.  This system, as it presently stands and as it is in all US banks, is where I communicate to a central bank via a NACHA file to move money from a central bank to my intended recipients bank. Now, I do this through my company's bank, but in order for it to move fast, it literally is transmitted from me to the central bank immediately without my bank even noticing.  Here's the problem, the central bank has no idea if my account has sufficient funds to cover the settlement of this.  When I was first being underwritten to do ACH credits, I couldn't figure out why... like, dude... don't give me a full body cavity search in order to send money... just don't let me send more money than I have; simple... but it turns out that the system is not setup that way; there's no automated validation of funds in the originating account in place and it has to be done manually which is expensive and manpower intensive. So...at this point and after years of my moving lots of money safely and without issue upon settlement, my bank has underwritten me to be able to move $100K per day without any need for their oversight based upon my business account's average daily balance.  So... let's say that I fall on hard times and I am of the morally flexible sort... I could literally drain my business account and then conduct an ACH credit of $100K to an account I control and then drain that account before anyone notices.  Think this doesn't happen?  It happens via various iterations to the tune of billions of dollars of year.  There's a whole element of bank fraudsters who do this literal thing all the time.  Billions of dollars in loss annually to taking advantage of this system.

Enter Ripple's messaging software, which used to be called xCurrent.  It is bi-directional so rather than an overnight domestic payment simply being a matter of a bank trusting someone that they won't move money they don't have, there's an actual two-way validation process in place.  So, as it is now, uf I want to move money from my account on an overnight basis via domestic ACH credit, it's a matter of being like, "yo, central bank... move this" and it happens because I am simply trusted which is inherenty flawed and insecure... with Ripple's messaging software, however, its like, "yo... central bank, move this" and the central bank is like, "hey bro... sure, but let me just make sure you have funds to cover this.  Ok, you do. Cool, green-lit"... 

Let's be clear. This is not amazing technology. This is not machine learning/AI sort of stuff.  The only amazing aspect is that it's taken until now to do this.  So think about this value prop in terms of the ultimate agenda of banks.  They want to be usurists, but they ALL want to not be defrauded and lose money and they all get massively defrauded now.  If they're all on this system, they all will do better and they know it.  Banks don't love to cooperate, in general, but they have a legacy of cooperating around things like this which will benefit all of them entirely by cutting down on fraud and abuse.

I am suggesting that this factor will make them move faster than you might think.  Not fast.  No, banks don't move fast.  But perhaps faster than you think. 

So let's say they move fast to adopt this tech... and this tech just so happens to be pre-packaged to work well with XRP-based settlment via ODL.  It's age old shoehorn strategy whereby this desperately needed tech is the shoehorn and ODL is the shoe. 

Thank you for the topic.  It's a really good one.  And I don't see what you've written as anti-XRP at all.  I see it as being a realist and I wish there was more realism in the pro-XRP world.

Cheers.

 

 

Hi Lysistrada, thank you for the detailed response.

I am delighted with your response. Our brains think very much the same, it seems, with our similar thought processes and identical price estimation. I am even more happy to see you bring up the term usury, a word that seems to have been lost as far as modern vocabularies go, which now goes by the term "interest". I am fully aware of usury being the primary driver of wealth for banks, and did not highlight this in my posts or thought process because my original post was designed to be easily understood by a modern mind, I didn't want to add too many layers of complexity or research... hence its brevity.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, except the point about a more expedited adoption of XRP technology than usual when you started talking about nostro/vostro accounts becoming unnecessary in paragraph 4. Indeed I am not anti-XRP at all, but at the same time I am not even pro-XRP (though my stance is), I am just a realist. I simply take the presented facts of which I can obtain, and try to organize and then reorganize them into a form where there is little to no alternative interpretation.

On a related note, I am an automation/DevOps engineer in charge of an automation project for one of the largest networking organization in the world, and I can tell you, stuff moves slowly even here; however, the outcome is completely worth it. Gone are the days where you would manually configure each and every networking component on an individual basis. Enter DevOps, where you can configure hundreds of networking components at will within a fraction of the time. This field is still in its infancy - for example, Cisco are going to release new automation certifications next month (previously they had none), and cloud certifications are relatively recent (Google Cloud have just released the beta version of their DevOps certificate) and are constantly being reviewed - it's almost a new sub-industry. Automation is a long, drawn out process, and XRP's motivation is rooted in automation - you would need to create new jobs, new training schemes, recruit new people, in order to support mass adoption of blockchain technologies. Given the state of cloud/DevOps, and to then infer that banks are going to adopt the XRP ledger anything inside of 5 years from now... Ha. Haha. 

facts dispenser.

Edited by facts_dispenser
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41 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

I am an automation/DevOps engineer in charge of an automation project for one of the largest networking organization in the world, and I can tell you, stuff moves slowly even here;

Appreciate the personal nature of your post.  Thanks for sharing. I would add to your logic - that at one of the largest networking organizations in the world stuff especially moves slowly.  Not nimble, bureacratic in nature, organizational culture slow moving.  No doubt about it.

Same with SWIFT, and some of the largest banks.  Incumbent lumbering bohemoths I agree. Slow to change. And the USA, hegemonic banking incumbent that it is, is the laggard worldwide, yes.

That's exactly why start ups and countries who are leapfrogging the technological gaps in their societies are moving so quickly.  (Remember the acquisition of the cell phone by Asia and Africa where most folks didn't even have landlines ever?)  It's happening the same way with money transfer.  People are not waiting for the largest banks to get on board, or the largest networking companies. When that happens yes skyrocket.  Until then the bulk of the progress will have already happened.  It's a big world.

Across the globe regulatory frameworks have been built for an entity like XRP to flourish, and in fact, in several countries the tech portion of that change has been tested and installed.  They are the innovators.

We are waiting- but I believe the base case on which your opinions rest are only part of the story, by no means the entire story.

Yet I agree with your ultimate point- the slowest moving, largest, and least agile orgs will be last to the buffet table, yes. 

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52 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

Hi Lysistrada, thank you for the detailed response.

I am delighted with your response. Our brains think very much the same, it seems, with our similar thought processes and identical price estimation. I am even more happy to see you bring up the term usury, a word that seems to have been lost as far as modern vocabularies go, which now goes by the term "interest". I am fully aware of usury being the primary driver of wealth for banks, and did not highlight this in my posts or thought process because my original post was designed to be easily understood by a modern mind, I didn't want to add too many layers of complexity or research... hence its brevity.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, except the point about a more expedited adoption of XRP technology than usual when you started talking about nostro/vostro accounts becoming unnecessary in paragraph 4. Indeed I am not anti-XRP at all, but at the same time I am not even pro-XRP (though my stance is), I am just a realist. I simply take the presented facts of which I can obtain, and try to organize and then reorganize them into a form where there is little to no alternative interpretation.

On a related note, I am an automation/DevOps engineer in charge of an automation project for one of the largest networking organization in the world, and I can tell you, stuff moves slowly even here; however, the outcome is completely worth it. Gone are the days where you would manually configure each and every networking component on an individual basis. Enter DevOps, where you can configure hundreds of networking components at will within a fraction of the time. This field is still in its infancy - for example, Cisco are going to release new automation certifications next month (previously they had none), and cloud certifications are relatively recent (Google Cloud have just released the beta version of their DevOps certificate) and are constantly being reviewed - it's almost a new sub-industry. Automation is a long, drawn out process, and XRP's motivation is rooted in automation - you would need to create new jobs, new training schemes, recruit new people, in order to support mass adoption of blockchain technologies. Given the state of cloud/DevOps, and to then infer that banks are going to adopt the XRP ledger anything inside of 5 years from now... Ha. Haha. 

facts dispenser.

There have been reports from banks that have adopted Ripplenet that the process has been very fast (3-6 months).  Ripple have pre-packaged their software for easy adoption.  At Swell there was a lot of talk about the problem of banks not having common systems, this causes companies like Visa to have hundreds of staff integrating their software with the multitude of different APIs of other banks.  Ripplenet is solving this problem which is huge, cumbersome and wasteful of money.

But the main problem for "slow" moving banks is that their customers no longer feel the same loyalty they felt just a decade ago.  I have been banking with HSBC since 1970, and I used to have a local branch and a bank manager, now I have no local bank and speak to an automated voice on the phone.  I owe the HSBC zilch.  If I see another service by another provider that is superior, I use it.  I am not interested in the problems, or reasons, HSBC have for being slow in a fast moving world.

Cross border payments is not a side issue for businesses that send money across borders.  We meet other businesses like ourselves at trade shows and we talk about these sorts of things.  An FI that is set up with ODL and an API will simply steal the customers of big banks if they think they have a right to be slow because they are big and part of the establishment. 

Big banks have 2 -3 years to provide comparable services to companies like Flash FX.  If they can't do that they better close their FX departments because they will not have any customers.

 

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23 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Appreciate the personal nature of your post.  Thanks for sharing. I would add to your logic - that at one of the largest networking organizations in the world stuff especially moves slowly.  Not nimble, bureacratic in nature, organizational culture slow moving.  No doubt about it.

Obliged to share my own background as he did so his own. I agree largely with what he said as none of it was unreasonable even if it errs slightly on the optimistic side of things, and I appreciate the time it took to write his message and share his knowledge.

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I'm convinced the price will run up once regulatory clarity is solidified whether that takes 5 or 10 years who knows but I think it will be under 5 years.  Once we get a clear definition on what XRP really is it's off to the races.  Even if it is declared a security there will be gains.  I mean it will probably plunge in the short term in that scenario but the come back will more than likely be epic.  You guys go ahead and continue to debate and I'll continue to accumulate at a substantial rebate.

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You apply fundamentals to a speculative market. You are right , it will take a while , but speculative markets don’t care too much about fundamentals . Btc doesn’t have any fundamentals yet it is a very good investment . More than 100% up from the bottom at 3k
 

tesla is worth more than vw for example , while it’s an awesome company most of the valuation is pure hype. Same with beyond meat . 

Edited by Zerp_Legend
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7 hours ago, facts_dispenser said:

I never said banks like SWIFT. Compare the banks to stubborn grandparents. Grandparents might not like LASIK to fix near/short sightedness, but at the same time they do not like wearing big old glasses. A bank behaves very similarly to a stubborn grandparent, they dislike the innovations that are meant to be helping them. This is why fintechs struggle.

This attitude is slowly changing. And I emphasize slowly, hence the reason for this post. I didn't say XRP will not take off, just that you'll be waiting 10+ years for the money you're seeking.

Non XRP related, but you're factually wrong. 

You're confusing Near / Shortsightedness / Myopia with Presbyopia. Grandparents don't have a reliable LASIK option to fix Presbyopia which is what ALL old people have by default. There are other surgical options to consider, but none as clean and compromise free as LASIK for Myopia/Hyeropia in younger patients.

Once in a while give some credit to grandparents and don't assume they're just old stubborn gits.

 

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4 hours ago, LungiDevil said:

Non XRP related, but you're factually wrong. 

You're confusing Near / Shortsightedness / Myopia with Presbyopia. Grandparents don't have a reliable LASIK option to fix Presbyopia which is what ALL old people have by default. There are other surgical options to consider, but none as clean and compromise free as LASIK for Myopia/Hyeropia in younger patients.

Once in a while give some credit to grandparents and don't assume they're just old stubborn gits.

 

And those are the facts... please keep dispensing.

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9 hours ago, JBW said:

I did not feel like he is anti XRP. He has a good point. I think it is true for most of the banks. Banks and insurance companies are very very slow to move to better (modern) tech. At least in my country.

The point is less relevant than the title. The way trolls typically operate is to tack highly negative titles onto moderate threads and generate conversation and arguing through sealioning and hypotheticals. The goal isn’t to create good conversation, it’s to keep a high-ranking thread with a negative title at the top of the list to scare away potential investors since titles are many many times more visible than thread content.

And... here I am contributing to that.

No way to tell if OP is a troll btw, but it’s a real tactic that’s deployed in misinformation campaigns, and it’s likely happening in XRPChat. There’s been an influx of trolls since January, which represents a new calendar year and probably fresh budgets for some organizations.

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