The big problem with XRP, and why you'll be waiting (a very long time)

[facts_dispenser]

 

You will be waiting 10+ years for XRP to hit 30 USD. Why? Because of a specific buzzword you are sure to hear going around...

FINTECH.

Let's look at this word. It comprises of two parts: Fin - finance, and tech - technology. There is already a problem here. Finance moves incredibly slowly and is anti-innovation, technology moves very fast and is pro-innovation. Bang. And therein lies the fundamental problem when it comes to XRP: the clash of industries.

Let's look at cloud adoption as an analogy. Cloud really took off late 2000's, and are large corporations hosting critical processes in the cloud? Nope. Why? Because they're big and they move slowly. They may host non-critical workloads in the cloud, but on-premise private cloud is still a thing and it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Now with XRP. Banks, especially T1 Banks, are some of the slowest and most clunky of the large corporations, whereas XRP is some of the trendiest and most cutting-edge of technologies. What do you think will happen when these two contrasting worlds collide? I mean, good heavens, Banks have stuck with Swift for almost 50 years for a reason - they really do not like change. What makes you think they'll migrate their critical workloads over to the XRP ledger in 1, 2 or 3 years? Stop being silly.

A common criticism:

People like to bring up Facebook and Instragram adoption rates by the end user, and like to tout this as evidence that XRP will grow in a similar fashion. WRONG, and it really pisses me off when people present this reasoning, actually. XRP focuses its utility on the backend where no user is directly involved; Facebook, Instragram and the like are focusing on the front-end user. They are completely different beasts. If you want XRP's price to go up, its backend usage needs to increase, to hell with BitPay and small transactions from the front-end users, that isn't what you should be looking for.

[facts_dispenser]

Please approve my post. There is no disinfo therein, nor is there any slander. If I made an error, I am open to being corrected.

Edited January 24, 2020 by facts_dispenser

[Caracappa]

Welcome!

Some valid points, some not. Banks indeed are slow adopters, but to say the stay with Swift for 50 years because they don't like change. There simply was no other option.

Banks eventually will have to if competition around them can deliver the same services for a lot less. That is if they want to stay involved in international transfers. Eventually they need customers, and customers pick service vs cost.

[xrphilosophy]

1 hour ago, facts_dispenser said:

Banks have stuck with Swift for almost 50 years for a reason - they really do not like change. What makes you think they'll migrate their critical workloads over to the XRP ledger in 1, 2 or 3 years? Stop being silly.

You lost me here.  You say banks - as if all banks are the same.  There are many countries and many types of banks out there.  They all love SWIFT?  I didn't realize this. I feel silly.

[facts_dispenser]

11 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

You lost me here.  You say banks - as if all banks are the same.  There are many countries and many types of banks out there.  They all love SWIFT?  I didn't realize this. I feel silly.

I never said banks like SWIFT. Compare the banks to stubborn grandparents. Grandparents might not like LASIK to fix near/short sightedness, but at the same time they do not like wearing big old glasses. A bank behaves very similarly to a stubborn grandparent, they dislike the innovations that are meant to be helping them. This is why fintechs struggle.

This attitude is slowly changing. And I emphasize slowly, hence the reason for this post. I didn't say XRP will not take off, just that you'll be waiting 10+ years for the money you're seeking.

Edited January 24, 2020 by facts_dispenser

[Caracappa]

2 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

I never said banks like SWIFT. Compare the banks to stubborn grandparents. Grandparents might not like LASIK to fix near/short sightedness, but at the same time they do not like wearing big old glasses. A bank behaves very similarly to a stubborn grandparent, they dislike the innovations that are meant to be helping them, just like stubborn grandparents.

This attitude is slowly changing. And I emphasize slowly, hence the reason for this post. I didn't say XRP will not take off, just that you'll be waiting 10+ years for the money you're seeking.

I think 10+ years is just a random pick, but could very well be right. I think we'll have some speculative bubbles in the entire crypto market (including XRP) before utility bubbles and non-utility deaths.

[xrphilosophy]

10 minutes ago, facts_dispenser said:

I never said banks like SWIFT. Compare the banks to stereotypical grandparents. Grandparents might not like LASIK to fix near/short sightedness, but at the same time they do not like wearing big old glasses. A bank behaves very similarly to a stubborn grandparent, they dislike the innovations that are meant to be helping them, just like stubborn grandparents.

This attitude is slowly changing. And I emphasize slowly, hence the reason for this post. I didn't say XRP will not take off, just that you'll be waiting 10+ years for the money you're seeking.

Fair enough ok.  You said banks have stuck with SWIFT. And they are incumbent dinosaurs.  And things DO take time I agree, but-

You really don't know how much money anyone here is seeking, and you really don't know how long this market or XRP will take to mature in truth do you?  Predictions either way are a loose game. 

I'll add to this- CBDC's may take some time to set in- but global money flows are changing rapidly because tech companies are forcing the issue- and threatening the banking industry.  That's why they are responding.  Disintermediation will not happen overnight by a long shot, but many other alternatives to moving money are cropping up outside of the banking industry.

[elppir]

In Europe banks are struggling with low interest rates, so money does not come for free when they lend to (just an example) house buyers. I'd say they are very eager to save costs on transactions if this contributes to their overall profit. When it comes to profit or not....things could go rather quick I guess ;-)

[facts_dispenser]

8 minutes ago, Caracappa said:

I think 10+ years is just a random pick, but could very well be right. I think we'll have some speculative bubbles in the entire crypto market (including XRP) before utility bubbles and non-utility deaths.

Yes, it is mostly a stab in the dark, but a fair estimate going by previous models. But my point is, XRP will not "moon" in 2020, or 2021, or 2022, like over-zealous 20's something millennials desire. And some delusional YouTubers.

7 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Fair enough ok.  You said banks have stuck with SWIFT. And they are incumbent dinosaurs.  And things DO take time I agree, but-

You really don't know how much money anyone here is seeking, and you really don't know how long this market or XRP will mature in truth do you?  Predictions either way are a loose game. 

No argument in your post.

-------------------------------

So all in all, no solid arguments presented as of yet. My opinion is balanced and sticks to reality thus far.

Edited January 24, 2020 by facts_dispenser

[xrphilosophy]

1 minute ago, facts_dispenser said:

So all in all, no solid arguments presented as of yet. My opinion is balanced and sticks to reality thus far.

I did lay out reasoning.  You have an opinion, not an argument yourself.  So I suppose we're even in your mind?

[facts_dispenser]

1 minute ago, elppir said:

In Europe banks are struggling with low interest rates, so money does not come for free when they lend to (just an example) house buyers. I'd say they are very eager to save costs on transactions if this contributes to their overall profit. When it comes to profit or not....things could go rather quick I guess ;-)

My grandma is phobic to LASIK, she also hates wearing big old glasses.

The European banks are phobic to innovation (XRP), they also hate low interest rates.

[elppir]

I would be ok with XRP hitting $ 30 in 10 years ;-).  ...happy even!!

[Talinos]

So you are really into the assumption that banks use win 95 and disks? I dont think you mean a bank as whole. You mean certain services. For these(for you outdated services) there is simply no alternative or the alternative is not economical. For example in my bank we had some programm which gave us an overview over certain transfer purpose. Yes it was an 3270 emulation- yes you couldnt use a mouse BUT it was highly effective. You just had to press a certain code ( like F10- x-n-1-4-F10 - also for certain codes you had a bot  thats it. So yeah we could have upgraded it but it would have been much slower or the same speed. Also we would had to buy new server +new software +new support. I will give you another more up to date example: Sonos a music system. Sonos has an app on your handy which you can use to start playing it. But it also has a button to do the same. Yeah the app is new technology but you are just slower on it then pressing the old school button. People would go so far to buy a 99$ remote switch because it is still easier then getting your telephone open the app and press play. 

[rippledude]

So in 5 years xrp will be 15 dollars lets see that's 2025. Half of that is the year 2022 somewhere in June xrp is now 7.50. Half of that oh we're getting closer it's now the year 2021 march somewhere xrp will be 3.25.  So you are saying xrp will be approaching it's all time high in a little over a year? Facts dispenser person thank you for the hope you have brought back to xrp chat. 

[JBW]

30 minutes ago, rippledude said:

So in 5 years xrp will be 15 dollars lets see that's 2025. Half of that is the year 2022 somewhere in June xrp is now 7.50. Half of that oh we're getting closer it's now the year 2021 march somewhere xrp will be 3.25.  So you are saying xrp will be approaching it's all time high in a little over a year? Facts dispenser person thank you for the hope you have brought back to xrp chat. 

He never said that. If you think he said that why don't you read again. Please feel free to do that as many times as you need until you understand what you are reading. One more time. He never said that.