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The Case For XRP by Galgitron

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38 minutes ago, minicuzzo said:

I love you but why so pessimistic on price here?? Market makers would load up, no?? 

Not necessarily pessimistic. I’m what I call a fact based thinker, but that’s impossible with crypto as there are no real fundamentals or historic precedents. So it all comes down on “ believes, speculation, cripple comparaisons, false extrapolations, magic crystal balls, black box algo’s and self proclaimed prophets”.  Not much factual to work with sadly.   

We can’t have both: a highly efficient mature and liquid market as well as market makers loading up to manipulate the price for massive gains later. 

So I’m in the dark here, like everyone else. A very high price ( let’s say above $ 10) is certainly possible for XRP ( as is a very low price of less than cents), but thinking in probabilities is hard to do.  I give XRP a chance of 20%  to reach a price between $ 5 and $ 10 between now and 3 years.   Based on nothing really. 

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin
A 20% chance of 5000% gains already is fabulous compared to the lottery.

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2 hours ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

For the record: I’m counting / gambling / hoping on a rise of XRP’s price purely by retail or professional speculation. 

Once utility kicks in on a big scale ( agreed, even 5% marketshare would be big) and price will gravitate towards utility value like Galgitron calls it, I’m not so sure of a very high price for XRP.  So I’m hoping for an irrational speculative anticipation of utility for the price to rise ( please at least one more time, lol). 

A container costs a couple of thousand dollar, but can carry millions of value ( trillions if stocked up with daimonds or gold bars), so no real correlation there. Market Liquidity by definition is the (non-) ability to manipulate prices> high market liquidity = price doesn’t move much when big amounts are bought/sold. 

You can make a new container for a few thousand bucks, so an old container will never be worth more than a new container.  XRP is limited to a 100 billion tokens and lost tokens are never returned to the system.

If you have 100 billion a day flowing through the system, 50 billion in circulation strategically available at pinch points, you have have less than an hours supply of XRP.  It just takes a few marketmakers to slow down their systems for the whole system to cease up, however efficient the flow of XRP?

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1 hour ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

Not necessarily pessimistic. I’m what I call a fact based thinker, but that’s impossible with crypto as there are no real fundamentals or historic precedents. So it all comes down on “ believes, speculation, cripple comparaisons, false extrapolations, magic crystal balls, black box algo’s and self proclaimed prophets”.  Not much factual to work with sadly.   

We can’t have both: a highly efficient mature and liquid market as well as market makers loading up to manipulate the price for massive gains later. 

So I’m in the dark here, like everyone else. A very high price ( let’s say above $ 10) is certainly possible for XRP ( as is a very low price of less than cents), but thinking in probabilities is hard to do.  I give XRP a chance of 20%  to reach a price between $ 5 and $ 10 between now and 3 years.   Based on nothing really. 

Wow you really are pitching it low! My amateur brain pitches it at 90% of reaching 100 within ten years :acute:

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32 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

If you have 100 billion a day flowing through the system, 50 billion in circulation strategically available at pinch points, you have have less than an hours supply of XRP.  It just takes a few marketmakers to slow down their systems for the whole system to cease up, however efficient the flow of XRP?

These kind of calculations have been made several times on this board last 3 yrs.  Not going to repeat the whole calculation but daily cross-border volume divided by # of XRP available divided by transaction/settlement speed of XRP comes down to a price of a few cents per XRP ( if I recall it correctly about $ 0.06 or even less). 

The other $ 99.04 must be market friction  and speculation then .  Lol.  So much for a highly efficient mature liquid market. 

Sorry to be somewhat sarcastic, I mean no harm though.  

Not going to argue, as I really have no clue  and we all have our own believes. But that’s just what they are: believes with no or at most a very thin fact based motivation. 

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin
My predictions come from the darkest place of my body, lol

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11 minutes ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

These kind of calculations have been made several times on this board last 3 yrs.  Not going to repeat the whole calculation but daily cross-border volume divided by # of XRP available divided by transaction/settlement speed of XRP comes down to a price of a few cents per XRP ( if I recall it correctly about $ 0.06 or even less). 

The other $ 99.04 must be market friction  and speculation then .  Lol.  So much for a highly efficient mature liquid market. 

Sorry to be somewhat sarcastic, I mean no harm though.  

Not going to argue, as I really have no clue  and we all have our own believes. But that’s just what they are: believes with no or at most a very thin fact based motivation. 

I think that is for a system that works 100% efficiently and is not asymmetrically distributed

It seems to me that Susan Athey's methodology is more realistic https://www.allinxrp.com/Calc/

But as you say XRP has no fundamental value without utility and the unknowns are too complex to model (like climate).  We are all guessing, and it the speculators guessing that will probably trump utility once it starts to hit the attention of the mass media.  I think we are going to have that speculative bubble you are hoping for, XRP I simply too sexy not to attract the attention of the small time get rich quick mob.

 

Edited by Julian_Williams

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21 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

It seems to me that Susan Athey's methodology is more realistic https://www.allinxrp.com/Calc/

 

She’s  ( and in my previous post myself included) assuming a 1 on 1 correlation of XRP’s price and value to move. So at this very moment 1 XRP can only transfer about $ 0.2.  Why is that again?  If this isn’t mandatory then her ( and my theorethical) calculations are nonsense ( not to say they otherwise aren’t:  try to make a formula for the price of a gallon of gasoline......crazy). 

Edit: lol, realistic numbers in her formula gives a price of $ 7.50 per XRP !!  I was right on target!!! 

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin
Grammar

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I think you can make reasonable arguments for all the values mentioned by my fellow members above.  It’s great to see you guys laying out excellent thoughts like that.  Thanks.   I think we all agree somewhat...   It really is an unknown.

IF major adoption happens and then many commentators say on mass media that there is a trillion dollar market with only a fixed supply of tokens,  and some being lost all the time,  then if we DONT have a giant run based on fomo by Joe Average WORLDWIDE then I would be somewhat surprised.

So now let’s consider how the air was let out of the market last time.  First up,  there were apocalyptic rumours and articles about how it was all going to be illegal and that China was banning it etc.  Next up the run had been massively influenced by one single country, Korea, and that country had some very bad articles and an arrest come out at a critical moment.  Then also consider that there was no utility flow happening and no real prospect in the immediate future.  

I think things would be significantly different this time around if fomo (based on XRP real world adoption) happens.  In this postulated run I don’t think the air could let out as much as it has this last time,  Also all the on ramps are much fatter and better prepared than last time.  
The other complication here is that there is a real possibility of a crypto-wide run and collapse before ODL and other use cases gets that utility fomo triggered.

Its all very complicated and impossible to predict.  But I’m pretty sure the balance of probabilities is that 20c is a low ultimate price.

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4 minutes ago, JASCoder said:

Note: I am archiving the solver's sample data, and plan to chart that for future review and analysis. 

Mate I reckon you are one of this communities unsung heroes...   thanks so much for doing this work.  As more becomes clear over time,  the older data is going to be very valuable for reverse engineering what was happening.

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