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CaligulazBaby

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22 hours ago, XRPboi said:

I recall seeing some of your comments in previous threads regarding tests in Japan on velocity and mathematical valuations. Are you able to provide an update on any of that?  :)

You will have to refresh my memory.  I do have mathematical valuations based on the velocity of the XRPL but I can't remember anything about Japan.

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6 minutes ago, CaligulazBaby said:

You will have to refresh my memory.  I do have mathematical valuations based on the velocity of the XRPL but I can't remember anything about Japan.

I would love to see your mathematical valuations based on velocity, as well as any associated timelines that might accompany such.

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@CaligulazBaby Thanks for elaborating. I can only imagine all the use cases. And with XRPL/ILP being the standard protocol for international value transfer moving forward, I'd imagine that the corridors may open and build much quicker at some point? 

I am surprised to hear that XRP at $20 would supply enough liquidity to support $5T a day. I've seen that banks will be able to hold crypto starting January 1, 2020. Perhaps this may add a multiplier to that $20 value sooner or later?

I see people on Twitter calling for $2k per Zerp in January. What is your outlook for the next 6-12 months, using current knowledge and mathematical valuations? 

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8 hours ago, XRPboi said:

@CaligulazBaby Thanks for elaborating. I can only imagine all the use cases. And with XRPL/ILP being the standard protocol for international value transfer moving forward, I'd imagine that the corridors may open and build much quicker at some point? 

Yep the corridor thing will be a cross between linear and exponential.  Mr Katz said they open a corridor and then just hang new corridors off the end.  So imagine you want to add Thai Baht to the current corridors.  That gives you USD/BHT, BHT/USD, PHP/BHT, BHT/PHP, MXN/BHT, BHT/MXN which is the 6 corridors.  This takes us back to the (n^2 - n).  With Thai baht that makes four currencies (4^2 - 4) = 12 which is the 6 new corridors posted plus the original 6 from my earlier post.  Using this model the corridor progression rate will be {2, 6, 12, 20, 30, 42, 56} for n={2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} and so on up until n=180.

Also XRP serves the "exotic" corridors with poor liquidity.  Having USD/XXX is an important first step so there is at least some liquidity to compete with current forex.  As things ramp up you will find the spread getting tighter and tighter for these exotic corridors which makes choosing XRP for currency exchange more attractive.  Once XRP fills the gaps in exotic corridors it will start moving to the more liquid ones.  Once USD/JPY or USD/GBP are being served by Ripplenet then we can start looking at walking/running.

8 hours ago, XRPboi said:

I am surprised to hear that XRP at $20 would supply enough liquidity to support $5T a day. I've seen that banks will be able to hold crypto starting January 1, 2020. Perhaps this may add a multiplier to that $20 value sooner or later?

It only needs to be $20 because XRPL settles almost instantly.  Once a transaction is complete, the XRP used is ready to be used again.  Have you got a source for banks holding crypto from Jan 1st, I've not seen anything.  I think the "multiplier" theory is vastly underestimated and will be priced into the market extremely quickly which leads me onto your last question!

8 hours ago, XRPboi said:

I see people on Twitter calling for $2k per Zerp in January. What is your outlook for the next 6-12 months, using current knowledge and mathematical valuations? 

$2,000 in the next 1-5 weeks?  If I'm being polite....it's optimistic.  As I always use to say, almost everything has a greater than zero percent chance of being true so it's just a case of weighing up how likely you think something is to happen.  How likely do you think $2k in 5 weeks, well how about $200, or $20 or $0.02?  You should have an answer for each of these scenarios plus others.

As for my personal opinion....the history of every XRP price movement has been an explosive move in a very short period of time so presumably that will be the case again.  There are two events in 2020 that I'm looking at very closely.  One will be when banks and FIs can hold XRP on the books.  At the moment it's just exchanges taking the big "whale alert" batches of XRP and the banks/FIs on Ripplenet are sourcing XRP through these exchanges.  I think this will continue for a while tbh.  I think it will take a long time until there is definitive global regulation.  Of course I'm happy to be proven wrong here.

The big second event in 2020 I'm looking at is the olympics in Japan.  If I wanted to showcase XRPL and I was Ripple/SBI then the olympics is the perfect place.  Literally every nation will come together in one place and literally every country has television access to all the events.  It's just too perfect.

MPC showed this a few months back

Untitled.thumb.png.20834c1c7f6124df5fddb5082c158265.png

It looks like a reasonable scenario given the history of XRP moves.  One splurge up from regulation and one splurge from the olympics?

As for the price, I have no idea.  The two splurges could take us to $2,000, they could take us to $220 like MPC thinks or it could just return us to ATH and things go from there or....nothing.  Like I said everything has a greater than zero percent chance of being true and it's up to us as investors to calculate that based on available information and act on it.

I have tried trading and price predicting and it was an unpleasant experience.  I prefer focusing on the technology and new use-cases.  I fully expect the price to go to $X and I don't enjoy trying to guess how high or when.

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4 hours ago, CaligulazBaby said:

Yep the corridor thing will be a cross between linear and exponential.  Mr Katz said they open a corridor and then just hang new corridors off the end.  So imagine you want to add Thai Baht to the current corridors.  That gives you USD/BHT, BHT/USD, PHP/BHT, BHT/PHP, MXN/BHT, BHT/MXN which is the 6 corridors.  This takes us back to the (n^2 - n).  With Thai baht that makes four currencies (4^2 - 4) = 12 which is the 6 new corridors posted plus the original 6 from my earlier post.  Using this model the corridor progression rate will be {2, 6, 12, 20, 30, 42, 56} for n={2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} and so on up until n=180.

Also XRP serves the "exotic" corridors with poor liquidity.  Having USD/XXX is an important first step so there is at least some liquidity to compete with current forex.  As things ramp up you will find the spread getting tighter and tighter for these exotic corridors which makes choosing XRP for currency exchange more attractive.  Once XRP fills the gaps in exotic corridors it will start moving to the more liquid ones.  Once USD/JPY or USD/GBP are being served by Ripplenet then we can start looking at walking/running.

It only needs to be $20 because XRPL settles almost instantly.  Once a transaction is complete, the XRP used is ready to be used again.  Have you got a source for banks holding crypto from Jan 1st, I've not seen anything.  I think the "multiplier" theory is vastly underestimated and will be priced into the market extremely quickly which leads me onto your last question!

$2,000 in the next 1-5 weeks?  If I'm being polite....it's optimistic.  As I always use to say, almost everything has a greater than zero percent chance of being true so it's just a case of weighing up how likely you think something is to happen.  How likely do you think $2k in 5 weeks, well how about $200, or $20 or $0.02?  You should have an answer for each of these scenarios plus others.

As for my personal opinion....the history of every XRP price movement has been an explosive move in a very short period of time so presumably that will be the case again.  There are two events in 2020 that I'm looking at very closely.  One will be when banks and FIs can hold XRP on the books.  At the moment it's just exchanges taking the big "whale alert" batches of XRP and the banks/FIs on Ripplenet are sourcing XRP through these exchanges.  I think this will continue for a while tbh.  I think it will take a long time until there is definitive global regulation.  Of course I'm happy to be proven wrong here.

The big second event in 2020 I'm looking at is the olympics in Japan.  If I wanted to showcase XRPL and I was Ripple/SBI then the olympics is the perfect place.  Literally every nation will come together in one place and literally every country has television access to all the events.  It's just too perfect.

MPC showed this a few months back

Untitled.thumb.png.20834c1c7f6124df5fddb5082c158265.png

It looks like a reasonable scenario given the history of XRP moves.  One splurge up from regulation and one splurge from the olympics?

As for the price, I have no idea.  The two splurges could take us to $2,000, they could take us to $220 like MPC thinks or it could just return us to ATH and things go from there or....nothing.  Like I said everything has a greater than zero percent chance of being true and it's up to us as investors to calculate that based on available information and act on it.

I have tried trading and price predicting and it was an unpleasant experience.  I prefer focusing on the technology and new use-cases.  I fully expect the price to go to $X and I don't enjoy trying to guess how high or when.

I see. Below are the links for reference:

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/48738/with-parliament-approval-german-banks-to-sell-and-custody-crypto-in-2020

https://ripple.com/insights/2020-the-year-of-the-digital-asset/

 

^Those are also some pretty bold claims from Ripple employees for 2020. 

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54 minutes ago, XRPboi said:

I see. Below are the links for reference:

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/48738/with-parliament-approval-german-banks-to-sell-and-custody-crypto-in-2020

https://ripple.com/insights/2020-the-year-of-the-digital-asset/

 

^Those are also some pretty bold claims from Ripple employees for 2020. 

That's all great but I'm still just hearing, "we're looking forward to this and that happening" or "CEO Brad Garlinghouse says this and that is going to happen very soon".  I don't give a **** about these people making optimistic statements about the companies they have some skin in.  I want to hear an official announcement from an established old school, brick and mortar bank has XRP on their balance sheet.  Until that happens we're still looking at the same market as we were in 2016 where exchanges are holding the XRP and facilitating transactions between two customers.

That might sound negative but after three years of hearing the same rhetoric....I just gets kinda old.

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1 hour ago, CaligulazBaby said:

That's all great but I'm still just hearing, "we're looking forward to this and that happening" or "CEO Brad Garlinghouse says this and that is going to happen very soon".  I don't give a **** about these people making optimistic statements about the companies they have some skin in.  I want to hear an official announcement from an established old school, brick and mortar bank has XRP on their balance sheet.  Until that happens we're still looking at the same market as we were in 2016 where exchanges are holding the XRP and facilitating transactions between two customers.

That might sound negative but after three years of hearing the same rhetoric....I just gets kinda old.

I completely agree - it wouldn't be the first time we've heard empty promises (caused by real delays or not). I suppose you don't agree much with the following posts?
 

 

 

Lastly, Ben Sharafian recently posted a blog detailing how Interledger will be 'Open' sometime in 2020 for access (for companies, wallets, etc.).

https://coil.com/p/sharafian/Interledger-2020-Access/ddUXfDobj

 

I try to separate hype from reality, but I think it is also beneficial to set accurate expectations of the next 12-24 months ahead. I am interested in hearing your take on all of this.

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3 hours ago, XRPboi said:

I completely agree - it wouldn't be the first time we've heard empty promises (caused by real delays or not). I suppose you don't agree much with the following posts?
 

 

 

Lastly, Ben Sharafian recently posted a blog detailing how Interledger will be 'Open' sometime in 2020 for access (for companies, wallets, etc.).

https://coil.com/p/sharafian/Interledger-2020-Access/ddUXfDobj

 

I try to separate hype from reality, but I think it is also beneficial to set accurate expectations of the next 12-24 months ahead. I am interested in hearing your take on all of this.

I'm not interested in the two price predictions but Ben Sarafian's post is really interesting.  The only thing it makes me think is TEACH US HOW TO DO THE XRPL THINGS!!!!

What he's suggesting is what I thought Bob Way was going to do.

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12 minutes ago, CaligulazBaby said:

  The only thing it makes me think is TEACH US HOW TO DO THE XRPL THINGS!!!!

What he's suggesting is what I thought Bob Way was going to do.

What exactly do you mean?

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