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tony71

This doesn’t look good for the economy

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The more the FEDs try to prevent the crash the harder the crash will be.   When you are pumping $60 billion monthly into the market just shows the liquidity has dried up and funny Ripple change their Xrapid to On Demand Liquidity   

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/22/fed-repo-worries-continue-over-the-efforts-to-fix-funding-issues.html?__twitter_impression=true

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It is inevitable. The dotcom bubble showed how the world was beginning to get smaller through digitisation. Hence after the dotcom bubble, companies like the FANG saw considerable gains. Payments and settlements on the otherhand have not evolved much to actually meet this new "instant everything" landscape. The economy is moving way too fast for SWIFT. I say, take it outside and shoot it so we can tokenise everything!

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35 minutes ago, tony71 said:

The more the FEDs try to prevent the crash the harder the crash will be.   When you are pumping $60 billion monthly into the market just shows the liquidity has dried up and funny Ripple change their Xrapid to On Demand Liquidity   

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/22/fed-repo-worries-continue-over-the-efforts-to-fix-funding-issues.html?__twitter_impression=true

Even if ODL is the solution to this problem by freeing up capital, I'm starting to doubt it's going to solve this coming crisis. Seems a little late for that. Perhaps the next one?

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1 hour ago, Caracappa said:

Even if ODL is the solution to this problem by freeing up capital, I'm starting to doubt it's going to solve this coming crisis. Seems a little late for that. Perhaps the next one?

Maybe it is setup to solve this upcoming crisis.  I mean why even change the name to ODL all the sudden? Do they even have the liquidity??

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Shortly after the election in Nov 2020, I think the patches to the economy finally give, with a much needed correction unfortunately impacting the middle class the hardest. I don’t expect it to be as ruthless as 2008.  We will get through it, but will have to confront the debt crises sooner than later. I don’t think it will be ignored as much as it is a decade from now.

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13 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

Shortly after the election in Nov 2020, I think the patches to the economy finally give, with a much needed correction unfortunately impacting the middle class the hardest. I don’t expect it to be as ruthless as 2008.  We will get through it, but will have to confront the debt crises sooner than later. I don’t think it will be ignored as much as it is a decade from now.

How confident are you a major correction won't happen prior to the election?  Anything specific to support that?  Why do you expect the next correction to be less impactful overall than 2008?

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48 minutes ago, tony71 said:

Maybe it is setup to solve this upcoming crisis.  I mean why even change the name to ODL all the sudden? Do they even have the liquidity??

it seems that way. Incoming liquidity crisis...well ripple offers "on demand liquidity, let's tap into that...

Seems set up to me...

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6 minutes ago, XRPLearner said:

it seems that way. Incoming liquidity crisis...well ripple offers "on demand liquidity, let's tap into that...

Seems set up to me...

Ripple plays into market demand. That doesn't mean the crisis is a setup. Or do I misread your comment?

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1 minute ago, SquaryBone said:

Ripple plays into market demand. That doesn't mean the crisis is a setup. Or do I misread your comment?

not a setup but its certainly coming, with or without the existence of ripple and xrp. IMO ripple and xrp have been the answer since the 2008 recession where we've seen a highly overbought market that is due for a violent correction... perhaps delaying a crisis until there is something ready to fix or prevent it...

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1 hour ago, aavkk said:

How confident are you a major correction won't happen prior to the election?  Anything specific to support that?  Why do you expect the next correction to be less impactful overall than 2008?

It’s political, Trump and the feds know if the economy will stay strong, the likelihood of his re-election significantly increases. So they will continue to cut rates as necessary, bond buybacks, fire up the printing presses, infrastructure bills, etc. This of course will make things hurt more down the road, and this is a partisan issue.

Real estate bubble was the main driver last decade, can’t see anything that would devastate the economy short of a geopolitical conflict, i think public debt will one day but that is further down the road.

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Didn't someone report recently that student loan debt delinquencies in the US has for the first time surpassed mortgage debt delinquencies?  I really don't see the housing market imploding again like it did in 2007-2008.  For example,. if the US / global economy falls into a recession you can almost certainly bet when people have to choose between paying their student loans vs paying their mortgage they are going to choose their mortgages.  This will subsequently cause the student loan delinquency rate to skyrocket similar to the mortgages during the last recession, but with limited damage to the broader markets since student loan debt is not liquid in any way.  It's not like in 2008 when people owned something of tangible value in a home which lost 40% of it's value almost overnight.  There's nothing for the lenders to offload like foreclosed homes or short sales.  It's just debt obligations tied to individuals with nothing they can reclaim.  I doubt there is much the banks and lenders can do to offload the bad debt except forgive most of it and overhaul (regulate) their lending practices to prevent such a bubble in student loans from ever occurring again.

The only other major debt item I see barreling down on the US economy in the next decade are vehicle loans.  New vehicles are prohibitively expensive, yet people are still purchasing them with 7 year car loans.  If they trade in and roll their loan over within that 7 years, probably around the 3-4 year mark, the second note is going to be absurdly high for the value of their second new car.  People will walk from these bad loans.  This combined with the rise of ride sharing services rapidly on the rise should lead to a big overhaul of the automotive sales industry in the US.

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