Jump to content

MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price


Guest
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, JASCoder said:

That link above ( https://bitso.com/alpha/markets ) - If you have the time, maybe monitor the volumes of XRP trades and see if we see any changes over the months to come.

I will look into it, but I know that current trading volumes are higher because we are in a bullmarket, which makes it harder to single out MGI's trades.

I wrote this months ago, based on the volumes of existing corridors: https://coil.com/p/FransZoveel/Why-I-think-Moneygram-s-moneyflow-through-ODL-was-already-impacting-XRP-s-price/TLk5rJBMe

..  so it wouldn't be the first time looking at it like this

Regards, Frans

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Frans said:

I agree, but since the ledger and the apis are open, the streams of sent XRP should be visible somewhere. Problem is finding where  :D

Yes that’s true but how do you match them?  A buy in Europe and a sell in Thailand.  By the amount?  What if they are blended with other trans or have random amounts added in and later subtracted and balanced over the 24 hours.  

The tags?  What if there is a random rolling tag scheme?

There are ways they could obfuscate them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

Yes that’s true but how do you match them?

same way they do now, that's one of the things they have built into utility-scan

 

4 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

What if they are blended with other trans or have random amounts added in and later subtracted and balanced over the 24 hours

1.  that would cost someone money probably, XRP is not a free product

2. why would they ?  everyone can see how the volumes on ODL enabled exchanges has been impacted since MGI went live

3. if they somehow find a way to keep up out of the loop, we are just out of luck, we are unfortunately entitled to absolutely nothing in this regard

That said, I hope we can keep following these volumes, but if not, then we're just out of luck and will have to resort to educated guesses

There comes a time when so many clients are sending over tons of corridors that there will be no keeping up with certain clients anyway, because the speed at which Ripplenet can do transactions will make utility-scan look like fiatleak, streams and streams of tx flowing over our screens

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Frans said:

same way they do now, that's one of the things they have built into utility-scan

 

1.  that would cost someone money probably, XRP is not a free product

2. why would they ?  everyone can see how the volumes on ODL enabled exchanges has been impacted since MGI went live

3. if they somehow find a way to keep up out of the loop, we are just out of luck, we are unfortunately entitled to absolutely nothing in this regard

That said, I hope we can keep following these volumes, but if not, then we're just out of luck and will have to resort to educated guesses

There comes a time when so many clients are sending over tons of corridors that there will be no keeping up with certain clients anyway, because the speed at which Ripplenet can do transactions will make utility-scan look like fiatleak, streams and streams of tx flowing over our screens

I agree with your overall view and share your hope that we can continue to track.

As for points....  

1.   If Ripple were asked by a client to surpress the public tracking they could allocate a pool of XRP and change amounts at either end of the corridor by feeding some XRP in and out as required semi-randomly and rebalancing (perhaps via different corridors looped) later.  That would cost them practically nothing.  Not saying it is happening now or will happen later.  Just saying it’s possible.  I often see people saying “they can’t hide ODL” but I believe they could if motivated to.

2.  If the client demands more privacy in the corridor traffic amounts.

3. yes agreed.  It’s good that we can see it now (although maybe masking has begun??) but we are not entitled to it.

Overall of course the volumes should show up if they become big enough.  Some already are.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I agree with your overall view and share your hope that we can continue to track.

As for points....  

1.   If Ripple were asked by a client to surpress the public tracking they could allocate a pool of XRP and change amounts at either end of the corridor by feeding some XRP in and out as required semi-randomly and rebalancing (perhaps via different corridors looped) later.  That would cost them practically nothing.  Not saying it is happening now or will happen later.  Just saying it’s possible.  I often see people saying “they can’t hide ODL” but I believe they could if motivated to.

2.  If the client demands more privacy in the corridor traffic amounts.

3. yes agreed.  It’s good that we can see it now (although maybe masking has begun??) but we are not entitled to it.

Overall of course the volumes should show up if they become big enough.  Some already are.

 

I understand that some clients want to hide their transactions.  This is easily done by mixing the transactions from different clients in shared corridors.

I do not understand why Ripple would want to hide the success of ODL growing on a corridor.  In fact I would expect as corridors grow Ripple will make announcements to broadcast their success , as they do.  They have told us that nearly 10% of Mex US remittances are now on Ripplenet.  For many reasons Ripple want the media to know that ODL works.

Ripple told us why the ODL crashed 6 months ago.  They gave a full explanation, telling us they were no longer putting "treasury payments" through ODL corridors.  We then watched SME payments build, and this was enough for Ripple to squash the FUD rumours that ODL did not work.  Ripple often try to counter FUD because Ripple know that FUD is causing them to lose traction in the investment markets. FUD will also damage their valuation in an IPO.

I am noticing the lack of information from Ripple about the crash in ODL which started ten days ago and we are talking about on XRP chat and I expect it is being talked about elsewhere too.  No one from Ripple has come out and denied ODL has crashed.  Why not? 

Edited by Julian_Williams
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

That would cost them practically nothing

I agree. Only thing would be that they'd have to code it and that poses a risk for something that's been stable for so long, but if they'd want, they could do this certainly.

13 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

2.  If the client demands more privacy in the corridor traffic amounts

also true, I remember an amendment that's in the pipeline where the Ledger would cryptographically obscure the DT, which would increase privacy for their clients.

MGI was first and the biggest, so we have an idea of their DT's, clients that have come online later, like the '20k sender' have been a mistery from the beginning and maybe that's why they are plugging along in plain sight. Could be Azimo, Viamericas or Ripple (LOC) itself even.

Ah well, maybe Asheesh gives us an idea what's going on like in june, we'll see.

Maybe just some reorganising having to do with new corridors about to come live would be nice  :-D

@JASCoder I did look at XRPMXN on Bitso via Tradingview and played a little with MA's and it seems like volume in dollars is lower, but not in the extreme. Not a lot of datapoints though, since MGI never sends in the weekends until now

Fun times people !  :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I understand that some clients want to hide their transactions.  This is easily done by mixing the transactions from different clients in shared corridors.

I think perhaps that would not be as easy as it might appear because of commercial contractual aspects.

Right now the separation of concerns works because Ripple supply the software, the client uses it and the exchange and the client have a commercial contract concerning the usage of the exchange api and trading.

Under what you propose then Ripple would have to add in a meta layer of temporary ownership of funds as they move.  That’s a whole different thing than what exists now.  I don’t think that is ever part of Ripple’s modus operandi to be the operator of the ODL process.

But it’s all unclear and I am simply waiting for some word from Ripple.  I hope it comes soon.

 

6 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I do not understand why Ripple would want to hide the success of ODL growing on a corridor.

 

I agree.  But they must respond to the client needs and it’s likely that some if not all clients prefer as much obfuscation of their trading as possible.  So although they want to speak of their success and want details out they probably are very limited in what they can say.

I agree that this is not a good look so they really should indicate something and soon.  The one thing I fear is that the news is in truth bad and hence there is no upside to letting it out.  I don’t really believe that,  but I must consider it possible,

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Frans said:

I remember an amendment that's in the pipeline where the Ledger would cryptographically obscure the DT, which would increase privacy for their clients.

‘Blinded Tags’

Have not heard any updates regarding that proposal. I did a search of XRPL Docs a couple months back, but nothing back then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/17/2020 at 3:41 PM, Frans said:

I will look into it, but I know that current trading volumes are higher because we are in a bullmarket, which makes it harder to single out MGI's trades.

I wrote this months ago, based on the volumes of existing corridors: https://coil.com/p/FransZoveel/Why-I-think-Moneygram-s-moneyflow-through-ODL-was-already-impacting-XRP-s-price/TLk5rJBMe

..  so it wouldn't be the first time looking at it like this

Regards, Frans

Howdy Frans - I've been meaning to share with you an old post related to your topic quoted above, fortunately XRPChat's got a great search option :)
( The first half of my old post is related to your coil post )

As I wrote in my old post, I too had some (apparent) misconceptions as to how the logistics of ODL worked, and I now believe quite differently today. 

One key point not emphasized enuf in my old post, is the impracticality of expecting all users of ODL to perform the mechanics of what is essentially arbitrage trading operations. The hiring, training, maintaining of a staff for every user of ODL for such operations, would be effectively an insurmountable barrier to embracing ODL, not to mention a waste of capital and the company's focus.

But for Ripple to maintain the 24/7 capital transfer operations of ODL - as a service for all their ODL customers - makes total sense. And just leaving the customers to do what they do best. Only requiring that they simply transfer and receive fiat value at each of all the desired corridors.

Here is my old post on this:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi @JASCoder !

4 hours ago, JASCoder said:

As I wrote in my old post, I too had some (apparent) misconceptions as to how the logistics of ODL worked, and I now believe quite differently today.

I am not sure what you mean, language issue perhaps, I am not a native english speaker/writer. If you're saying that I have misconceptions about how ODL works, can you point out where I may have sounded like that ?

 

I hope the next part explains a little better how I understand ODL to work, but if I a missing something, I'd love to know and dig deeper.

4 hours ago, JASCoder said:

But for Ripple to maintain the 24/7 capital transfer operations of ODL - as a service for all their ODL customers - makes total sense. And just leaving the customers to do what they do best. Only requiring that they simply transfer and receive fiat value at each of all the desired corridors

Yep, I never thought otherwise. I have spent a ton of hours with some success, working through the patents Ripple holds. That was prompted by me reading literally all Bob Way's posts that are still on this forum thankfully. Man, he dumped a knowledge bomb here, unbelievable.

The main 2 components of ODL are Ripplenet, which is essentially one giant hyper intelligent tradingbot, and the other part is/are Market makers.

Ripplenet does all the moving, buying and selling, administration, atomic (rippled) payments/settlement, prompted by manual/automatic input.

 

Market makers provide liquidity and also do arbitrage. From what I remember, I read/saw @Nicolas (Nicolas Steiger from FlashFX) state as much, either in an interview with @CryptoErior in the interview he gave on this forum that those Market Maker's funtions are also highly automated, incl. the arbitrage. Interview with Nicolas Steiger here: 

 

One of the most interesting developments surrounding SBI, next to SBI VCTrade now opening up as a corridor, has been the acquisition of B2C2 imo, which is an experienced Market Maker in the crypto space.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200630006130/en/Financial-Conglomerate-SBI-to-Acquire-30MM-Stake-in-Digital-Asset-Firm-B2C2

SBI actually holds 90% or more of B2C2 atm, according to their last quarterly report, as reported on/translated by @CryptoEri

This all seems like more and more integration of all components of ODL.

 

To get back to MGI tx not appearing on utility-scan: I am not sure, but judging from the intervals with which MGI has been sending until now, there seems to be some manual intervention, since the time intervals differ, even though the numbers per day essentially ended up at the same amounts.

One thing that has come to mind as an explanation for the current situation is that we know that MGI might at some point want to shift from the bigger payments like they have been doing until now, that are probably still backoffice payments, to actual, live payments. That is when the client does the manual stuff and MGI does not need any hands on anymore.

They have probably refrained from doing so until now because if the system somehow fails, in the current situation, the clients are not confronted by those problems if they'd arrise.

Adjusting MGI's systems to make this a reality probably takes some doing. I hope that's what is happening in the background, but it could just be maintenance again, some change in Ripplenet/ODL, or not. Any guess is as good as mine :D

Sorry if this post is a little wonky  :D  so many ideas bubbling to the surface when thinking all this through, it's hard to write something structurally coherent  :D

 

What are your numbers showing atm ? Would you say MGI has temporarily suspended their sending of payments into MXN ?

regards, Frans

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Frans said:

What are your numbers showing atm ? Would you say MGI has temporarily suspended their sending of payments into MXN ?

Great post Frans !
Thanks for all your effort to share your discoveries, observations and opinions. 

My previous post was responding to your coil blog where you said this...

Quote

What actually happens imo is this:

- 1: MGI buys XRP (from Market Maker) with dollars (on exchange BitStamp)

This appears inconsistent with what you just posted.
Or I'm really confused, and need to back off on my medications :)

BTW - The Bitso volume only ran hot for two days, then it went back down for Friday.
Could be result of discovered issues, or just a planned delay. 

The watching game continues...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.