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MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price


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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

My hat is off to anyone with multiple languages

thanks, crypto wouldn't be the same if I couldn't read/write english

3 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

I can barely speak one

LOL

Quote

We had five currencies going in the quarter

This was a quote from MGI Q1 earnings call. I have understood it to mean: USD, EUR, MXN, PHP and AUD

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/05/01/moneygram-international-inc-mgi-q1-2020-earnings-c.aspx

That does leave us with the conundrum what's in the AUD-USD transactions. Is it MGI, or is it FlashFX ?

3 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

Have you seen the thread with Nicolas from FlashFx?

I have

This is one of the strangest things he said:

Quote

We have been running a Ripple gateway for years

what could this mean for their outgoing transactions ? Any idea ? Could it be that they have their own wallet, that's different from that of BTC markets ?  @mouradski any idea?

3 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

My ‘research’

mine is not very much more sofisticated I'll tell you, I just have a lot of time on my hands and this is all fascinating, since it will eventually lead to my investment getting worth more I hope. That might also be a lot sooner than ppl think.

 

2 reasons:

1. reported volumes are about 10x the actual volumes. Try comparing Cryptocompare (+ their top tier) to cmc and others. Cryptocompare's volumes are also more in tune with https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/xrp-markets  Not to mention the piece from last year where they found that 95% of reported volumes are fake

2. if you take a more conservative approach to those volumes and multiply ODL volume by 4, the picture drastically changes and IMO Moneygram's ODL volume alone will be higher than the entire actual global volume

Why do I multiply ODL volume by 4 ?  Simple: eg an MGI transaction USD-MXN leads to:  MGI buying XRP on Bitstamp AND Market Maker buying XRP on Bitstamp to replenish his stash of XRP. In Mexico, on Bitso, the same thing happens, but the other way around. Another 2 XRP transactions. = 4 XRP transactions from 1 ODL transaction.

So, I think things move at least twice as fast than others might think  :D

Edited by Frans
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I think it's a bit presumptious to think that your opinion is desired by others, no?  Maybe leave this thread if you don't like it.  It's not what you're saying, it's the rude way in which you are say

Even tho Molten has bowed out, I'm guessing a few "ODL Watchers" remain here with me, and remain interested... With the BS/Bitso trade activities I've been monitoring all these months, I'm noting

Just FYI: December is starting to look interesting from the ODL traffic point of view. These numbers should not be taken too seriously as some might not be ODL directly, but the trend is very pos

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On 7/2/2020 at 2:54 PM, Columba said:

@JASCoder I would really be interested in an update of your earlier analysis using the most recent data if you can acknowledge spreads are tightening or maybe you have some conclusions you'd like to share based on your data crunching.

 

Hey friend, i saw your mention (sorry i'm way behind on discussions heh)

The main block impeding my "scanning" efforts might have just been improved. At last, IG has contacted me to assist in beta testing their APIs for US imprisoned devs like myself :)

So hopefully soon I have more research to report here.

BTW - IMHO - The massive drop in ODL is most likely due to shifting to a new phase of deployment. Think about this, if you were an FI, and were about to commit your company to make a radical change and disruption to operations, you would want PROOF a new system will handle both spikes and sustained loads.

IMHO Ripple proved it with the various ways we saw them gaming their process patterns.

These dudes quite possibly know WTF they are doing, and are keeping the details internal "need-to-know" basis, why help potential competition eh ?

Cheers m8 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Frans said:

That does leave us with the conundrum what's in the AUD-USD transactions. Is it MGI, or is it FlashFX ?

Can't it be both? As MGI has clients sending money from A to B, that requires also an up ramp (for A) and an off ramp (for B). So on the one hand you have clients that are connected, but on the other hand on a more technical part, the rails (up - and off ramp) are also there to be used.

The idea in the end is that ILP is used in the proces, so you can make a chain of payments and exchanges. It could be that FlashFX makes use of the rails and technically only provides the up ramp AUD->USD. The receiving-client could be MXN, so USD->MXN is the next part of the chain. That part is technically provided by MGI. 

The issue that's left to be solved is how can the sending client (A) from FlashFX be known and connected with the receiving client (B) from MGI. That might be solved by an overall sort of phone book where RippleNet-enabled clients are listed and possible routings can be determined.

As usual, of course guessing(tm) 

edit: actually I think the rails are not provided by FlashFx and MGI, but are provided by the exchanges (BTC_Markets, Bitstamp and Bitso), market makers and the Ripplenet software, and both FlashFX and MGI are sort of the end-users of the rails

Edited by jn_r
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Posted (edited)

Hi @mouradski

Rewrote this post, was a mess.

Turns out Flash FX has a shitload of wallets.

This one is used on a daily basis:

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rKXMpSMHuu36eEpGoJcdeBmwfkoy9pewAJ

amounts look very much like ODL

 

This wallet is used for Flash-fx (ODL?) transactions to BitSTamp:

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rU9wmmETrgD36tP29V68WKnyWnku8F6bRH
 

But this is also the wallet that engages with BTC-markets

Edited by Frans
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Posted (edited)

Does anyone here know how gateways work ?

I see that FlashFX, via their wallet rU9wmmETrgD36tP29V68WKnyWnku8F6bRH sends USD (bitstamp) to this wallet: rvYAfWj5gh67oV6fW32ZzP3Aw4Eubs59B

but that ends up as an order on Bitstamp, see below:

How is this even possible ?  :dthinking:

 

FlashFX_001_2020-07-05_004010_bithomp.com.png

FlashFX_002_2020-07-05_004206_bithomp.com.png

Edited by Frans
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Hi @mouradski,

I have done some digging to help you start, near the bottom I give an example of ODL from AUD to USD, where the role of some wallets becomes a little clearer:

Main wallets:
ODL wallets: (imo)

rU9wmmETrgD36tP29V68WKnyWnku8F6bRH - on flash-fx's gateway

rGFuMiw48HdbnrUbkRYuitXTmfrDBNTCnX, SOURCE TAG: 894407 = Flash-fx's dollar account on Bitstamp ?

rvYAfWj5gh67oV6fW32ZzP3Aw4Eubs59B, Destination Tag: 18259445 = Flash-fx wallet on Bitstamp


rKXMpSMHuu36eEpGoJcdeBmwfkoy9pewAJ - on flash-fx's gateway
(this wallet's transactions are Rippling payments between next 2 wallets)
(example tx:  2D8A70FD1B241FE8E8CB273A0107569984F5185BCB7BAF87509DEDD652417386 )

rhA7U1DMvSkmrnrVsJPaiZUMwFZFfy81bZ - on flash-fx's gateway
rpccqtgbBngpLYgBMjzyX85wzkbG3BsJZX - on flash-fx's gateway
(might be intermediairy wallets from eg treasury to trade department or something like that)


Flash-fx / owners wallets:

Flash-FX = rKUGYSfeGBZEurkJYtpr1N4yzn3KZ42oFm
(this looks like main accounting/treasury wallet)

Nicolas Steiger = rHVfnroETRm6UMQsLuptsHKUCbvTMHAQ5Y


TX HASHES OF EXAMPLE OF ODL FROM USD to AUD:

tx: 809F0E797CCDF72B93CDE59E81459F545B038D324B896B26738F5D80617FE282

  --  wallet rU9wmmETrgD36tP29V68WKnyWnku8F6bRH acts as intermediairy in this instance

tx: 0C7DD65C9CA21FE202F48D951229E8646873E8E0E91F978E87535F4B88CE9A20
 

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On 6/16/2020 at 10:24 AM, mouradski said:

** 6) We also do a manual analysis on xrpl based on a CSV which is generated every day and which lists the most frequent DT, it is a research base for us  ::) here is the last generated

 

SOURCE EXCHANGE;SOURCE ADDRESS;DESTINATION EXCHANGE;DESTINATION ADDRESS;TAG;REPEATED

;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;;rLNaPoKeeBjZe2qs6x52yVPZpZ8td4dc6w;1;540

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;255577;440

;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;;rwpTh9DDa52XkM9nTKp2QrJuCGV5d1mQVP;1;197

btc_market;rU7xJs7QmjbiyxpEozNYUFQxaRD5kueY7z;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;58871619;140

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;255406;140

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;25370527;139

;rKdDdrbU3MedsG7VtBAir4RjC35tzjDZnr;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;1;96

;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;108190700;93

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;1111;83

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;160728;46

coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;48170618;41

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;47175592;40

;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;cex.io;rE1sdh25BJQ3qFwngiTBwaq3zPGGYcrjp1;59482;38

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;252037528;37

;rEVrb2XPMxs3Wq1zKgFaYZers9nKCWUNd5;bithumb;rDxfhNRgCDNDckm45zT5ayhKDC4Ljm7UoP;1000831653;28

;rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;36427656;28

;rrn44FwKVZw9rWUXZPMzobpYvEu1guVKmF;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1031167542;27

;rwHFUMNftumg4nNAd3R8pYSPMN8E6PoUzu;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;107749210;27

bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;;rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR;2769899242;26

;r9Be4diPqgUcdPNPvzY1rFTTATLFhFeKSF;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;102021532;25

bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;109624440;24

;rDgDuTLEtNXKhGHPZPwYN9LjZcJXCbyCEz;;rJRY3nFzxZY1Xjw4qDz91hh3zekbx6mJga;2783293434;24

;rrn44FwKVZw9rWUXZPMzobpYvEu1guVKmF;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1088663242;23

;rpinhtY4p35bPmVXPbfWRUtZ1w1K1gYShB;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1004795521;23

;rLNaPoKeeBjZe2qs6x52yVPZpZ8td4dc6w;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100994718;23

;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;;rK7LSKygRUu9y9xcuhkWbcMRKRF5HVWwVL;8372574;23

;r3a44BXpsPN7z6dKLgsCzjodkzREpsqotT;;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;6628;21

;rK7LSKygRUu9y9xcuhkWbcMRKRF5HVWwVL;;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;2868;21

bithumb;rsdd66csGZkTzk42NDpJun7PNrGsC7WJHv;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;104930855;18

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;raQwCVAJVqjrVm1Nj5SFRcX8i22BhdC9WA;2715200170;17

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;bithumb;rDxfhNRgCDNDckm45zT5ayhKDC4Ljm7UoP;1004982847;16

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;;rpE6gE8jEN1trDwQwe47VmgDL5y6m3XX2n;188288455;16

;rEVrb2XPMxs3Wq1zKgFaYZers9nKCWUNd5;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100922483;16

;rMNrj8UTFEKhEQJTDHoyY2EudhrUvAYsoT;;rPRquDmusgmcvvXkz56XYGZ1BuBaEKB3qN;3793968793;15

;rNgHXPviCpf5G11EUFCMs4YR33s3puBv8Y;btc_market;rU7xJs7QmjbiyxpEozNYUFQxaRD5kueY7z;100005900;15

novadax;rE8aDxrPzx5Xqeppy2hgSXKppwNwpyEMbB;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;569579;15

;ra81gY4HtLVHCu7AZe6cbtdbWx4YQB6rdw;;rpA4DmttTSEFaYmUTWyrQGBCjDb1WnforY;105049;14

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;1668181602;14

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;22794384;13

;rCoinaUERUrXb1aA7dJu8qRcmvPNiKS3d;kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;1238399764;13

;rnQutDUj5iWGMoeKJFmdhJt3Q3thcfMvxF;;rEpNmrCTsxnNnE9BYEcHB94QM4KiRdDepy;846768;13

;rLZSHHDSgiWcNiHiLoPJxPWPK3hLj31W1A;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100166017;12

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;r9Be4diPqgUcdPNPvzY1rFTTATLFhFeKSF;112167501;12

;rwU8rAiE2eyEPz3sikfbHuqCuiAtdXqa2v;;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;1869377392;12

bithumb;rsdd66csGZkTzk42NDpJun7PNrGsC7WJHv;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100922483;12

kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;;rNEygqkMv4Vnj8M2eWnYT1TDnV1Sc1X5SN;12380791;12

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;r8ibx8ywm6yT3QAKf6ADXBLZVfMj3kqky;111344;11

;rMdG3ju8pgyVh29ELPWaDuA74CpWW6Fxns;;rLpumSZQNJ6Cve7hfQcdkG9rJbJhkSV8AD;1310359941;11

kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;;rnv2ieSpSyuLxvKxvBdkB8Zea1phcJXzFp;200099;11

;ra81gY4HtLVHCu7AZe6cbtdbWx4YQB6rdw;;rBaVrBysyomRmVpfFy3ZBTxBTNFzs4AkRq;103283;11

;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;;rwpMvfxoodXggJ1g4qv6MWAPQqWDwQyHUW;1140638643;11

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rENMoQvSHtb8sZwsxfefSGNZ7RQ89pd93H;2254392;11

;rpE6gE8jEN1trDwQwe47VmgDL5y6m3XX2n;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;811717;11

;rNEygqkMv4Vnj8M2eWnYT1TDnV1Sc1X5SN;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;108402189;11

Hi @mouradski

If it's not too much to ask. Could you post a renewed version of this list ?

I am wondering if there's a new flow to be seen from Bitso. It used to be this address rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR, but that seems to have stopped being active begin june when MGI turned flows lower.

Regards, Frans

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