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MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price

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hmm, BTC Markets' claim seems to indicate AUD-PHP is very much alive

maybe it just run AUD -> USD -> PHP ?

Is that what your tweet is about @mouradski ?

Good to see USD - MXN and AUD - USD are picking up in volume again

And the 20k sending client seems to send those batches everyday now, cool

 

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Posted (edited)

Hi @mouradski

I might have some ideas to solve some of the problems with the partial ODL transactions David Schwartz mentioned.

David described 3 scenarios:

1- sender already has XRP = ODL  (because receiver must exchange XRP into FIAT)

2- receiver accepts XRP = ODL    (because sender must exchange FIAT into XRP)

3- if sender already has XRP ánd receiver accepts XRP it's not ODL, but XRP payment


Possible solutions:


Scenario 1:

Sender already has XRP

He sends it to the foreign (other) exchange, there it gets sold into FIAT. For simplicity, let's let's first look at transactions where both exchanges are in different coutries and NEED the XRPL to send those XRP

The only thing visible on the XRPL would be the sending of those XRP, on the receiving exchange there is a sell into FIAT

Since we know this is controlled by Ripplenet, that has almost instant access to the orderbooks and the XRPL, you might want to look at the timestamps. The one of the XRPL transaction (the movement of XRP) and the one of the sell on the receiving exchange.

Those timestamps should be really, really close, less than a second, maybe even milliseconds, since it's all automated by Ripplenet. A person could not be that fast

Maybe the lists with transactions you have in the API outputs can give some insight as to how much time elapses between the sending and selling ?

Not sure how to do it for Bitstamp that has more FIAT pairings, thereby eliminating the need for sending via the XRPL, yet


Scenario 2:

Receiver accepts XRP

Sender needs to buy XRP that is sent to receiver's wallet

Simplest way is to look at how many transactions end up in the same wallet (DT)

Since here too, the XRPL is used to send XRP just a couple of seconds after the buy (consensus mechanism) checking the diffence in timestamps between the buy and the sending of XRP gives you another layer of certainty, since  a couple of seconds would be impossible for normal users whose transactions through the exchange's vetting process, 


Scenario 3:

If sender already has XRP ánd receiver accepts XRP it's not ODL, but XRP payment

This would be visible on the XRPL, but the only thing that would probably stand out would be the number of transactions into the same receiving wallet (DT), no sane person will send more than a couple of times a day, given the fees


I am not sure what you have implemented already, so hope this helps, but maybe you already have it solved

Edited by Frans

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Frans said:

Hi @mouradski

I might have some ideas to solve some of the problems with the partial ODL transactions David Schwartz mentioned.

David described 3 scenarios:

1- sender already has XRP = ODL  (because receiver must exchange XRP into FIAT)

2- receiver accepts XRP = ODL    (because sender must exchange FIAT into XRP)

3- if sender already has XRP ánd receiver accepts XRP it's not ODL, but XRP payment


Possible solutions:


Scenario 1:

Sender already has XRP

He sends it to the foreign (other) exchange, there it gets sold into FIAT. For simplicity, let's let's first look at transactions where both exchanges are in different coutries and NEED the XRPL to send those XRP

The only thing visible on the XRPL would be the sending of those XRP, on the receiving exchange there is a sell into FIAT

Since we know this is controlled by Ripplenet, that has almost instant access to the orderbooks and the XRPL, you might want to look at the timestamps. The one of the XRPL transaction (the movement of XRP) and the one of the sell on the receiving exchange.

Those timestamps should be really, really close, less than a second, maybe even milliseconds, since it's all automated by Ripplenet. A person could not be that fast

Maybe the lists with transactions you have in the API outputs can give some insight as to how much time elapses between the sending and selling ?

Not sure how to do it for Bitstamp that has more FIAT pairings, thereby eliminating the need for sending via the XRPL, yet


Scenario 2:

Receiver accepts XRP

Sender needs to buy XRP that is sent to receiver's wallet

Simplest way is to look at how many transactions end up in the same wallet (DT)

Since here too, the XRPL is used to send XRP just a couple of seconds after the buy (consensus mechanism) checking the diffence in timestamps between the buy and the sending of XRP gives you another layer of certainty, since  a couple of seconds would be impossible for normal users whose transactions through the exchange's vetting process, 


Scenario 3:

If sender already has XRP ánd receiver accepts XRP it's not ODL, but XRP payment

This would be visible on the XRPL, but the only thing that would probably stand out would be the number of transactions into the same receiving wallet (DT), no sane person will send more than a couple of times a day, given the fees


I am not sure what you have implemented already, so hope this helps, but maybe you already have it solved

Thanks @Frans

It's what we are doing :) 

Our algorithm in 5 steps

1) Search all ODL TRX between exchanges that providing API for new corridors basing on trades sum matching on both exchanges (when found, we store information about DT/SOURCE/DESTINATION for step 4)

2) Search all ODL TRX between all exchanges, that are followed by a sell in the local currency (in case source exchange not providing API (when found, we store information about DT/SOURCE/DESTINATION for step 4)

3) Search for all ODL TRX from exchanges with API to all exchanes (in case destination exchange not providing API) (* when found, we store information about DT/SOURCE/DESTINATION for step 4)

4) Search all ODL TRX between exchanges that providing API, basing on confirmed destination tag

5) Search offledger ODL, within the same exchange when it has more thn one fiat pair, for exemple EUR->USD, XRP buy trades grouped by the same timestamp are found on the EUR market and a few seconds later, XRP sell trades with the same amount grouped by the same timestamp are found on the USD market

 

** 6) We also do a manual analysis on xrpl based on a CSV which is generated every day and which lists the most frequent DT, it is a research base for us  ::) here is the last generated

 

SOURCE EXCHANGE;SOURCE ADDRESS;DESTINATION EXCHANGE;DESTINATION ADDRESS;TAG;REPEATED

;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;;rLNaPoKeeBjZe2qs6x52yVPZpZ8td4dc6w;1;540

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;255577;440

;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;;rwpTh9DDa52XkM9nTKp2QrJuCGV5d1mQVP;1;197

btc_market;rU7xJs7QmjbiyxpEozNYUFQxaRD5kueY7z;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;58871619;140

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;255406;140

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;25370527;139

;rKdDdrbU3MedsG7VtBAir4RjC35tzjDZnr;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;1;96

;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;108190700;93

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;1111;83

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;160728;46

coin.ph;rU2mEJSLqBRkYLVTv55rFTgQajkLTnT6mA;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;48170618;41

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;47175592;40

;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;cex.io;rE1sdh25BJQ3qFwngiTBwaq3zPGGYcrjp1;59482;38

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rw2ciyaNshpHe7bCHo4bRWq6pqqynnWKQg;252037528;37

;rEVrb2XPMxs3Wq1zKgFaYZers9nKCWUNd5;bithumb;rDxfhNRgCDNDckm45zT5ayhKDC4Ljm7UoP;1000831653;28

;rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR;bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;36427656;28

;rrn44FwKVZw9rWUXZPMzobpYvEu1guVKmF;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1031167542;27

;rwHFUMNftumg4nNAd3R8pYSPMN8E6PoUzu;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;107749210;27

bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;;rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR;2769899242;26

;r9Be4diPqgUcdPNPvzY1rFTTATLFhFeKSF;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;102021532;25

bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;109624440;24

;rDgDuTLEtNXKhGHPZPwYN9LjZcJXCbyCEz;;rJRY3nFzxZY1Xjw4qDz91hh3zekbx6mJga;2783293434;24

;rrn44FwKVZw9rWUXZPMzobpYvEu1guVKmF;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1088663242;23

;rpinhtY4p35bPmVXPbfWRUtZ1w1K1gYShB;bitkub;rpXTzCuXtjiPDFysxq8uNmtZBe9Xo97JbW;1004795521;23

;rLNaPoKeeBjZe2qs6x52yVPZpZ8td4dc6w;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100994718;23

;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;;rK7LSKygRUu9y9xcuhkWbcMRKRF5HVWwVL;8372574;23

;r3a44BXpsPN7z6dKLgsCzjodkzREpsqotT;;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;6628;21

;rK7LSKygRUu9y9xcuhkWbcMRKRF5HVWwVL;;rQL3rmtijDT33ytPXdJd41bG3Rpa2ZyfqN;2868;21

bithumb;rsdd66csGZkTzk42NDpJun7PNrGsC7WJHv;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;104930855;18

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;raQwCVAJVqjrVm1Nj5SFRcX8i22BhdC9WA;2715200170;17

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;bithumb;rDxfhNRgCDNDckm45zT5ayhKDC4Ljm7UoP;1004982847;16

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;;rpE6gE8jEN1trDwQwe47VmgDL5y6m3XX2n;188288455;16

;rEVrb2XPMxs3Wq1zKgFaYZers9nKCWUNd5;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100922483;16

;rMNrj8UTFEKhEQJTDHoyY2EudhrUvAYsoT;;rPRquDmusgmcvvXkz56XYGZ1BuBaEKB3qN;3793968793;15

;rNgHXPviCpf5G11EUFCMs4YR33s3puBv8Y;btc_market;rU7xJs7QmjbiyxpEozNYUFQxaRD5kueY7z;100005900;15

novadax;rE8aDxrPzx5Xqeppy2hgSXKppwNwpyEMbB;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;569579;15

;ra81gY4HtLVHCu7AZe6cbtdbWx4YQB6rdw;;rpA4DmttTSEFaYmUTWyrQGBCjDb1WnforY;105049;14

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;1668181602;14

bitstamp;rDsbeomae4FXwgQTJp9Rs64Qg9vDiTCdBv;bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;22794384;13

;rCoinaUERUrXb1aA7dJu8qRcmvPNiKS3d;kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;1238399764;13

;rnQutDUj5iWGMoeKJFmdhJt3Q3thcfMvxF;;rEpNmrCTsxnNnE9BYEcHB94QM4KiRdDepy;846768;13

;rLZSHHDSgiWcNiHiLoPJxPWPK3hLj31W1A;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100166017;12

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;r9Be4diPqgUcdPNPvzY1rFTTATLFhFeKSF;112167501;12

;rwU8rAiE2eyEPz3sikfbHuqCuiAtdXqa2v;;rNEBHRf9UYJRVeu6q7qcDV2tM7bM4EDf2B;1869377392;12

bithumb;rsdd66csGZkTzk42NDpJun7PNrGsC7WJHv;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;100922483;12

kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;;rNEygqkMv4Vnj8M2eWnYT1TDnV1Sc1X5SN;12380791;12

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;r8ibx8ywm6yT3QAKf6ADXBLZVfMj3kqky;111344;11

;rMdG3ju8pgyVh29ELPWaDuA74CpWW6Fxns;;rLpumSZQNJ6Cve7hfQcdkG9rJbJhkSV8AD;1310359941;11

kraken;rLHzPsX6oXkzU2qL12kHCH8G8cnZv1rBJh;;rnv2ieSpSyuLxvKxvBdkB8Zea1phcJXzFp;200099;11

;ra81gY4HtLVHCu7AZe6cbtdbWx4YQB6rdw;;rBaVrBysyomRmVpfFy3ZBTxBTNFzs4AkRq;103283;11

;rMvo4VQoutQm3P1eMXghcXrTdHNxxUTU3X;;rwpMvfxoodXggJ1g4qv6MWAPQqWDwQyHUW;1140638643;11

binance;rJb5KsHsDHF1YS5B5DU6QCkH5NsPaKQTcy;;rENMoQvSHtb8sZwsxfefSGNZ7RQ89pd93H;2254392;11

;rpE6gE8jEN1trDwQwe47VmgDL5y6m3XX2n;;rHWcuuZoFvDS6gNbmHSdpb7u1hZzxvCoMt;811717;11

;rNEygqkMv4Vnj8M2eWnYT1TDnV1Sc1X5SN;binance;rEb8TK3gBgk5auZkwc6sHnwrGVJH8DuaLh;108402189;11

 

 

image.png

Edited by mouradski

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7 hours ago, mouradski said:

** 6) We also do a manual analysis on xrpl based on a CSV which is generated every day and which lists the most frequent DT, it is a research base for us  ::) here is the last generated

that's done here I think ?

public class DestinationTagRest {

Took me some time to figure out github  :D

Too bad I don't speak Java, but fun to look around nevertheless

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2 hours ago, Frans said:

that's done here I think ?

public class DestinationTagRest {

Took me some time to figure out github  :D

Too bad I don't speak Java, but fun to look around nevertheless

yep :) 

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Posted (edited)

Oh, it just ocurred to me that on an exchange like Bitstamp, that has more FIAT pairs and therefore does not even have to use the XRPL, the maximum number of transactions is NOT the 1500 we know the XRPL can do, but the MAX number of transactions Bitstamp can handle.

Isn't that interesting  :D

Edited by Frans

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Posted (edited)

@mouradski do you still use the pyhton code ?  like seach.py ?

 

 

On 6/16/2020 at 10:24 AM, mouradski said:

Our algorithm in 5 steps :

I was looking through github, but couldn't find this algorythm you mentioned.

Yesterday I found the python piece, but also that when I use the "go to file" button in github (xrapid alert/src/main), it doesn't show everything. Accidentally found that out when using a highlighted method and running through the list :D

Suddenly found a ton more code. Things are starting to make a little more sense now  :D

Yesterday something strange happened btw, there was an ODL, that said it was from THB, but turned out to come from coins.ph  Exchange name field was also empty

tx hash:  3BC659D3CB23BB97E78DC5C4B123C9F545CD69813A5A29295329B356A825F084

Edited by Frans

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Posted (edited)
On 6/16/2020 at 10:24 AM, mouradski said:

SOURCE EXCHANGE;SOURCE ADDRESS;DESTINATION EXCHANGE;DESTINATION ADDRESS;TAG;REPEATED

bitso;rLSn6Z3T8uCxbcd1oxwfGQN1Fdn5CyGujK;;rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR;2769899242;26

 

On 6/16/2020 at 10:24 AM, mouradski said:

rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR

Hi @mouradski

I was wondering how the rebalancing of Bitso was done. I looked through your list above and Bitso sent 24 times to the address above:  rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR

I wanted to know whose wallet this is and something is really strange.

Up till today, Bitso sends batches of XRP there, that are then 5 minutes later forwarded to Bitstamp again.

You can see that in this link, it's crazy.

https://xrpscan.com/account/rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR

This wallet has been activated by Bitso, so it might be just a cold wallet, but it is just strange that it seems to only be used to send their own XRP to Bitstamp.

And it is still going on today.

Might be Market Maker's wallet, just found a very big XRP payment from Coins.ph to this same address

You any idea whose wallet this is ?

regards

Strange wallet.png

Edited by Frans
added example coins.ph big payment

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12 hours ago, Frans said:

 

Hi @mouradski

I was wondering how the rebalancing of Bitso was done. I looked through your list above and Bitso sent 24 times to the address above:  rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR

I wanted to know whose wallet this is and something is really strange.

Up till today, Bitso sends batches of XRP there, that are then 5 minutes later forwarded to Bitstamp again.

You can see that in this link, it's crazy.

https://xrpscan.com/account/rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR

This wallet has been activated by Bitso, so it might be just a cold wallet, but it is just strange that it seems to only be used to send their own XRP to Bitstamp.

And it is still going on today.

Might be Market Maker's wallet, just found a very big XRP payment from Coins.ph to this same address

You any idea whose wallet this is ?

regards

Strange wallet.png

this address is clearly involved in ODL, but we do not yet know how, probably related to market makers

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Posted (edited)

Huh ?  Seems Moneygram stopped sending entirely now.

I might have to go all in on XRP, something is up. Silence before the storm I hope  :D

 

PS just checked, they stopped at 7 am our time, their normal time to start and to stop

Edited by Frans

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42 minutes ago, Frans said:

Huh ?  Seems Moneygram stopped sending entirely now.

I might have to go all in on XRP, something is up. Silence before the storm I hope  :D

 

PS just checked, they stopped at 7 am our time, their normal time to start and to stop

That sound a bit ominous! I hope your suggested reason is right.

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