Jump to content
Molten

MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

Would you consider though that it’s perhaps more useful going forward to chart the dollar value rather than the number of XRP?

I would normalize everything now to USD, as it’s currently the most stable and widely recognized currency. You could localize all the data to the user specified currency, but that’s a lot of work...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, EasterBunny said:

I would normalize everything now to USD, as it’s currently the most stable and widely recognized currency. You could localize all the data to the user specified currency, but that’s a lot of work...

Yes that’s the dollar I referred to...  quite right though,  I should have used USD nomenclature because if for example, you use my puny dollar (AUD) everything is more expensive.  :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Tinyaccount said:

Would you consider though that it’s perhaps more useful going forward to chart the dollar value rather than the number of XRP?  Because what is at issue here is the value in dollars that can move through those books without undo slippage and at what spread. (valued in dollars at least until everyone in the world starts valuing things at heart in XRP :) )  

And if XRP appreciates in value significantly then your chart values will change dramatically downwards even if the underlying capacity doesn’t.

If you value it in dollars then any XRP price changes won’t affect the chart values overtly.  A price change will of course have effects on slippage and possibly spread from secondary and tertiary factors like market sentiment and volumes.  Just a thought.  Thanks again for sharing.

 

This is an excellent suggestion m8. I've been too focused on the trees, and not the jungle lol.

I'll make that change next - and the price action chart too, that should have been done as USD in the first place (damn lazy coders!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WOW - Monday has started off with a BANG !

We will be seeing a new all time volume record today, it's only 19:00 yet...

BTW - if you look at the price action chart below this, you'll see it crashed down right around the time after the Bitso sells. This is not the first time I've seen this paring of actions, there is something I'm missing here...

EDIT to add: Now it's obvious - BTC dragged XRP down, and ODL jumped on the window for some profitable trades at Bitso ?

png_download76822.png

Edited by JASCoder
See above

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:


Forgive me for mentioning but are there legends on the chart units?  To make clear what the axis is?

Thanks so much for sharing your excellent work.

SMDH - I thought I had already done that lol - it's fixed now:

https://wp.www-net.com/xrp2mxn-demo-test-page-01/

(but i'm planning to change it asap - actually coding the new class for it now lol)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/15/2019 at 6:37 PM, Tinyaccount said:

Would you consider though that it’s perhaps more useful going forward to chart the dollar value rather than the number of XRP?  Because what is at issue here is the value in dollars that can move through those books without undo slippage and at what spread. (valued in dollars at least until everyone in the world starts valuing things at heart in XRP :) )  

Here is the change I made: All the offer amounts (vert. axis) are multiplied by that offer's price, and I'm aggregating the cluster sums at each axis tic.
( all pricing is normalized to USD of course )

I'll include below both the chart and my "ODL FX" cost estimator's raw output (next task to fix lol): 

Sim results: 100 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 550.57 / 99.478 (0.005)
Sim results: 200 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 1101.14 / 198.956 (0.005)
Sim results: 500 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 2751.731 / 497.187 (0.006)
Sim results: 1000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 5502.308 / 994.166 (0.006)
Sim results: 5000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 27506.915 / 4969.992 (0.006)
Sim results: 50000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 274841.425 / 49618.606 (0.008)
Sim results: 100000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 549340.978 / 98986.307 (0.01)
Sim results: FX rate used: 18.928

png_download32526.thumb.png.610b39f4e49349bafe93e5672c77cb66.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

*UPDATE* wow - first time I've seen an arbitrage profit window for BS->Bitso ODL

Something is definitely going on with the MMs in this corridor, and with all the price smackdown on-going today - this is the FIRST TIME I've seen a PROFIT metric in the "ODL FX" Cost Estimator ...

Sim results: 100 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 538.271 / 100.099 (-0.001)
Sim results: 200 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 1076.542 / 200.199 (-0.001)
Sim results: 500 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 2691.355 / 499.84 (0)
Sim results: 1000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 5382.711 / 998.916 (0.001)
Sim results: 5000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 26913.554 / 4991.517 (0.002)
Sim results: 50000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 268783.748 / 49728.389 (0.005)
Sim results: 100000 buy(asks) / sell(bids) res = 536260.686 / 99107.854 (0.009)
Sim results: FX rate used: 18.928
-
date: Wed Dec 18 02:32:36 UTC 2019

Capturing for posterity ^^

And note, only 9/10ths of one percent for 100k XRP volume !

I know Brad G and DS were talking about frictionless - very interesting stuff.

BTW: Regarding the exchange's fees - I'd expect Ripple would have some Most Favored Client deal on a better rate than a typical customer... Company Confidential no doubt lol.

And, I am vowing to get script working live with the DoM chart by Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And another day at Bitso ended, with yet another ATH volume record (20m XRP bought with plenty of Pesos).

I made some live observations too, I'll capture them here:

  • The ODL FX costs I observed was ranging from 0.3% to 0.8%
  • Volume buy-trades at Bitso ranged in amounts of 2k to 50k XRP
  • These trades appeared to trigger only during periods when market was under 0.8% costs
  • Hourly trade totals ran hot and spikey, from 600k to 1m, with 3 bigger spikes

While not observable, it's looking highly probable that the MM's fiat account balances are the governing throttle holding back more voluminous trading activity. As we know, that capital has to come from somewhere, and its friction overhead is the key to building up this needed liquidity.

My intuition says it must be solvable, given the significant overhead that traditional process used by remittance companies cost. With all these services being deployed on an expanding global scale, it's no wonder they are not rushing it out. I mean, any fuckups along the way right now would be catastrophic to the surly nervous stakeholders. amirite ?

png_download54309.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Progress made on cleaning up the output of the "ODL FX Cost Estimator" scripts, unfortunately it's having render issues with FireFox.

As for the data, I noticed the spread at 1k USD dropping from 0.8 to 0.6 in ten minutes WHILE processing 100k volume - and it's looking like anytime it's under 0.8% it strikes.

Must be its sweet spot.

Screen Shot 2019-12-19 at 4.48.43 PM.png

Edit to add: Today's total XRP volume trades closed at 18 million (to yesterday's 20m).

Edited by JASCoder
added info at bottom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy crapballs Batman, check out the recent Bitso volume !! 

Another new ATH daily, and highest hourly levels too.

granted it's prolly a side effect of the global holidays, but still interesting...

(I'd post the two charts, except I've only my iPad right now, and the feature fails on this device. Someone pls feel free to click the download links and post them for posterity if you could).

 https://wp.www-net.com/xrp2mxn-demo-test-page-01/ 

edit to add: also the $10k transfer's spread is only 0.5% as well !

ODL is humming along nicely, ladies and gents.

Edited by JASCoder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Observation: Today's $0.015 price drop and Bitso trade action that followed...

For the handful of us ODL "Chart Watchers," I share the following observations in today's early events (19JAN2020, 11:00 UTC):

  1. At Bitstamp, precisely at time 11:00, 2.5m XRP was traded (see below). IMO, not the actions of profit maximization.
  2.  Prices at BS instantly descended from .245 to .232 and at Bitso the reaction exhibited some latency (see below).
  3. An unusual spike (for a Sunday) of XRP sells occurred at Bitso (see below).

Finally, after all this dust has settled, the current (19:00 UTC) DoM of the corridor's order books are showing a 25% higher reserve of bids at Bitso compared to the recent norms, almost like it's being primed for an active start of the coming work week (Monday) to follow ???
(We shall see what unfolds in the new week)

1084843144_ScreenShot2020-01-19at10_55_23AM.png.05bff6a11fe96d3508a2f82e5554b44a.png

1891671344_ScreenShot2020-01-19at10_57_24AM.thumb.png.d6d0018bc59d4ac360f96f0eef8100ac.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Greetings ladies !
And gents too.

I'm capturing here for posterity today's snapshot of the dual orderbooks, and its spreads; note it's back down to lower costs, but while Bitso bid book's depth is a bit shallow, it's VERY heartening that regardless we're seeing high volumes the last two hours - I'd love to see the XRPL transaction metrics of the last two hours too !

Note the Bitso's bid stack, the trade volume, and table of sample spreads - this seems to indicate some very responsive arbitration rates, or maybe ODL is doing bigger transfers - pls if anyone can check... DO post it :)

THE HOURLY VOLUME :

1052871649_ScreenShot2020-01-21at2_18_55PM.thumb.png.005ad497576a143ac21fbc992345f277.png

THE ORDER BOOKS RIGHT NOW :

130189601_ScreenShot2020-01-21at2_19_10PM.thumb.png.0ed331ac8daade927e7950e14373dd5a.png

THE SPREADS RIGHT NOW :

 161956026_ScreenShot2020-01-21at2_19_20PM.thumb.png.232538fc31c04b34bd23d875e2b1e94b.png

Edited by JASCoder
rewording

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...