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MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price

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OK, so please indulge me for a minute here.  Those of you that have put up with me on this board probably know I'm not much of a conjecture guy... to the point of being kind of a curmudgeon when it comes to speculation.  I prefer verifiable facts.  However, something occurred to me while I was on my morning jog and the seeds were planted by @dr_ed,@Julian_Williams, @Mpolnet , @Tinyaccount and others.  I want to run this by all of the excellent minds on this forum for input.

So, my theory, starting with facts:

1)  Ripple purchases a stake in MoneyGram in June, presumably as a means to jumpstart in earnest the usage of xRapid (now On Demand Liquidity = ODL) to the Latin American corridor.

2)  Fast forward a few months, and MGI's CEO is making glowing comments about the use of XRP in their transfers and the price of MGI's stock starts to rise.  This coincides with rising liquidity on the BItso Index that we have been tracking here.

3)  Fast forward to this week, and Ripple announces that they have invested in Bitso and placed a member on the executive board.

Now, the important question: why did they do this?  This is where a bit of speculation comes in.  I don't think they invested in Bitso because they saw a really good investment opportunity.  I think they have essentially told us the answer: they need more liquidity.

I think that MGI is ramping up the usage of ODL and it probably has become clear that the main limitation of continued growth is liquidity.  In other words, somebody needs to be on the other end of the trade to purchase the XRP in pesos, rial, whatever local currency. 

So, they will probably use their new position on the Bitso board to try to ramp up their customers, advertise, etc.  But what would be the most important and crucial component to enticing someone to purchase XRP and support ODL's liquidity?  Perceived value.  Namely, a rising price. 

Is it coincidence that the price of XRP has been rising steadily for the past month, in a way that we have really never seen?  There seems to be a rising floor underneath us that we haven't ever had before... XRP wants to go up.  Ripple has radically reduced their sales of XRP. 

Is it possible that we are seeing utility based growth?  That Ripple is now trying to engineer the price north to entice buyers?  The behavior of XRP has changed in the past month or so and I'm not so certain that all of these things are coincidental.

Thoughts? 

Edited by Guest

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@Molten Excellent points. You have voiced what we are all thinking. That this rise in price is due to the MGI Mexican bitstamp-bitso corridor opening. I want this to be true. I hope it is. 

But every Swell season there has been a PnD. The price goes up. We all think “this is it!!!” And then it collapses. 

We will know for sure after Swell. If there is still this steady increase in price then i might get cautiously optimistic. Until then, my excitement is being kept firmly in check. 

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Guest

Agree, we shall see.

I guess, to out my thought succinctly, what if Ripple has identified a rising price of XRP as a key and necessary feature that enables it to work?

They would be compelled to help support the price not for their own financial gain but for the very utility of XRP.

 

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6 minutes ago, Molten said:

Agree, we shall see.

I guess, to out my thought succinctly, what if Ripple has identified a rising price of XRP as a key and necessary feature that enables it to work?

They would be compelled to help support the price not for their own financial gain but for the very utility of XRP.

 

A higher price of XRP = greater liquidity. Nobody in here is arguing against that. 

Ripple has been supporting the price and liquidity since day one, and will likely continue to do so until the ecosystem is self-sustained 

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What would be interesting to me is to track the combined USD/MXN exchange rate through this corridor.
 

If the majority of the flow is into Mexico, I would expect the exchange rate to be less favorable to MGI. What they need is someone on the other end to counter balance the flow, i.e. businesses. Businesses might actually see a better exchange rate compared to other corridors if this is the case. 
 

Bitso just needs a little help to find those customers and make those deals. 

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8 minutes ago, EasterBunny said:

What would be interesting to me is to track the combined USD/MXN exchange rate through this corridor.
 

If the majority of the flow is into Mexico, I would expect the exchange rate to be less favorable to MGI. What they need is someone on the other end to counter balance the flow, i.e. businesses. Businesses might actually see a better exchange rate compared to other corridors if this is the case. 
 

Bitso just needs a little help to find those customers and make those deals. 

Agree very much with that.

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If there is a high volume of bi-directional flow, market makes will see higher profits. Higher profits will increase competition between market makers. More market makers mean more people holding positions in XRP. More demand for XRP means prices go up. 
 

We’re not there yet, but it’s starting. 

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This maybe true with ripple trying to entice the customers with the rising price only if we see the price still going up after SWELL.    
 

The price maybe just going up on anticipation of SWELL then it will drop. 

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21 hours ago, Molten said:

Is it possible that we are seeing utility based growth?  That Ripple is now trying to engineer the price north to entice buyers?  The behavior of XRP has changed in the past month or so and I'm not so certain that all of these things are coincidental.

Ripple has clearly tried to reduce selling pressure by reducing sales and pointing OTC buyers to exchanges themselves. But I think crypto markets are still mostly moved by speculation and the big players; I mean the people with big pockets who manipulate all markets. They are still the main reason that suddenly the price will jump up IMO.

Furthermore I don't think XRP going up is a surprise; we are at the bottom and we have been in a very long period of consolidation. I agree that how we are going up is interesting: there is continual buying pressure without it being FOMO. Are we seeing huge buys that would before have been OTC now being pushed onto exchanges? Institutions spreading out huge orders that are just continually beating out exhausted bears? Perhaps. The Bitso liquidity index graph is incredibly encouraging, a clear uptrend and it is sharp too. 

We talked before about not particularly wanting a huge pump and dump to happen. I would like us to do a BTC: rise well to about the middle of the range and then hang about there for a while. No more bumping along the bottom.

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All I know is much of the fintech world will have all eyes on Moneygram's Q3 / Q4 reporting to see how ODL utilization is affecting their bottom line.  I think we'll see a number of partnerships announced shortly afterwards if things are going well for MGI.  Also, I no longer really know how the price of XRP will react if/when utilization of ODL ramps up across the globe, but I think whatever happens it will be happen pretty quickly.  For now I'm just thrilled to see XRP getting utilized for cross-boarder payments.  It's very promising technology and Ripple has become kind of the the tip of the spear.

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On 10/19/2019 at 3:49 PM, Molten said:

 Is it coincidence that the price of XRP has been rising steadily for the past month, in a way that we have really never seen?  There seems to be a rising floor underneath us that we haven't ever had before... XRP wants to go up.  Ripple has radically reduced their sales of XRP. 

Thoughts? 

Have you been living under a rock for the past 2 years or perhaps you’re oblivious to the number of times the price has steadily gone up and come back down just as fast if not faster?

Jeeze, even your useless TA charts that God knows how much time and effort you’ve put into clearly shows the price going up and coming back down. These silly charts have shown give or take a 5 cents movement either side of 0.30 for the past year or so and there’s absolutely no signs of this changing in the near future.

Give it a rest, sit back for 4 or 5 years and see how this pans out rather than wasting your time with silly posts like these as they’re not fooling anyone other than yourself.

Edited by Moonraker

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Firstly I agree that Ripple are actively attempting to rise the price of XRP.  I think they made this decision about three months ago.  I think they are doing this because a higher price will give more ODL on the exchanges for XRapid customers

I am sure that they bought Bitso for a strategic reason

I would like to draw your attention to this screenshot Bitso liquidity index today. 

I have been watching this closely and thought I saw a pattern whereby the volume rises from about 23 of the month and peaks about the 14th of the following month and then rapidly drops off.  I thought this pattern represented a bulge of end of month pay-cheques being sent home on XRapid.

This month the volume started to rise on about 23rd and reached new peak on the 14th, but instead of dropping off it went on rising and rising, and it now on the 20th seems to be accelerating to new highs.  Today is not finished, so the final figure for today might be even higher.  This is very interesting and unexpected.

live Liquidity index link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pZ2POpljERK-oV3rusaCmq58U2badn5i9WOCIP9Wtmg/htmlview#gid=1888946776

Screenshot_2019-10-20 liquidity-index.png

Edited by Julian_Williams

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1 hour ago, Moonraker said:

Have you been living under a rock for the past 2 years or perhaps you’re oblivious to the number of times the price has steadily gone up and come back down just as fast if not faster?

Jeeze, even your useless TA charts that God knows how much time and effort you’ve put into clearly shows the price going up and coming back down. These silly charts have shown give or take a 5 cents movement either side of 0.30 for the past year or so and there’s absolutely no signs of this changing in the near future.

Give it a rest, sit back for 4 or 5 years and see how this pans out rather than wasting your time with silly posts like these as they’re not fooling anyone other than yourself.

Yet you waste time reading this part of the forums? Got it 👍

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