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Great write up. Interesting point about declined RV sales being tied to an economic turndown - don't consumers cut out many discretionary large ticket items when a recession looms? I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of RV's are purchased with the intention of becoming the owners new primary residence (opposed to just 'another large ticket item').

Anyway.. I love the xrp diagram you posted in your blog. The fact that it includes 'Cash' under 'Banks' and 'Wallets' makes me think about possible solutions that align with the new PayLocal initiative struck between WesternUnion and Amazon.

Your article also touches on some common quotes regarding "fiat and cryptocurrency co-existing." While this may be true in the near term, I think this kind of language is more geared towards regulators and skeptics of digital assets than anyone else. Because the truth is, as more fiat enters from different systems into XRP to be transferred (remittances, P2P, ATM's, e-commerce plugins, etc.), a lot of that fiat is gong to remain in XRP and the ecosystem. And the only way I see this not having an effect on sovereign currency is if it continues to be printed in abundance as well. Or maybe I am looking at this the wrong way..

I find the Mozilla and Grant For the Web to be very exciting news. I would love to know if a timeline exists on establishing WM/ILP with the W3C, and pushing it out to all major browsers. I know ILP hasn't had any additional changes for at least 2-3 quarters; the project seems to be coming along well with Kava and others growing on it. But at the same time, it's community posts like this one that leave me wondering if it is actually anywhere near ready.. I'd be interested on your take on all of this.

You mention that we are edging closer to the 'delivery point' for a wide variety of Xpring projects including Xumm. Do you have any idea when the initial version of Xumm may be available to the public? Also, you've mentioned that Xumm is far more than just a crypto wallet, because it will eventually integrate with banks, and it is seen by the team as a cornerstone of their overall go-to-market strategy for the other tools and applications they're building. I am very interested in learning how how the signing application they are building might fit into other applications, and what kind of applications those might be. Perhaps large, international banks (and smaller FI"s) may be interested in adding this tech as a layer to their current mobile banking apps? Or would that be thinking too small?

I've seen many members of the community express concern about the projects Xpring has invested in. But I've also noticed that Xpring partners with some pretty wide-ranging projects, like Blockchain Capital, whose portfolio consists of many impressive projects (including Ripple). The question I have not seen asked yet is this: Is it possible that the investments Xpring makes in other projects/companies allows for the enablement of those projects (as well as the portfolio of projects that fall under each) to access ILP in any way that they might not have otherwise (i.e running validators, or running connectors directly to ILP)? Or is that a stretch?

A strategy resembling above would make a lot of sense to me. Because we often hear about how actual, real utility is what is going to ultimately determine a digital assets value and price discovery. However, there are very few other projects on the charts today that have production ready products ready for live use. Wouldn't this mean that if XRP volume in each corridor began to scale quickly, XRP would continue to grow in price exponentially while other coins remained largely unaffected (or even negatively effected as holders of all of those coins jump ship into the only growing asset)? While most of us in this forum would love for that to happen, I don't see the powers that be letting that happen - DS has said numerous times that there can't just be one winner; many projects need to grow together to bring maturity to this space. Maybe this is the true goal of the Xpring investments, as mentioned in the preceding paragraph.. Just a thought. I look forward to any input you can provide!

 

Edited by XRPboi

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@Hodor thanks again for the great work and spreading the word. 

( an inverse relation can also be a direct one, but that’s grammar ). 

Will there be a positive or a negative correlation for crypto in an economic downturn?  ( or will it be zero?). 

Sadly enough correlations can only be determined in hindsight, when there’s enough history. History which crypto lacks ( 10 yrs isn’t quite enough). 

Maybe it ( the economic downturn as well as a possible correlation) varies per country, except when talking about a worldwide apocalyptic crisis ( The Reset, hello MaxEntropy), but I’m not hoping for the latter, even a negative correlation with XRP won’t be enough to fix the massive damage. 

The negative intrest rates ( we already have them for retail and corporates in the Netherlands) don’t trigger investors to turn to crypto (yet!), and to be honest, I can’t blame them.  The track record is relatively short and not very predictable ( understatement of the year).

But who knows? 

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On 9/19/2019 at 6:19 PM, Hodor said:

Blog URL:  https://coil.com/p/Hodor/The-Crypto-Mystery-Direct-or-Inverse-Relationship-/-bJ9H7mq1

How does the cryptomarket react to the world's economy?  Learn the answer in today's blog, along with all of the important news impacting XRP:

𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Ripple publishes a fact sheet about xRapid; the OECD publishes video content from its recent conference and I cover the panel discussions with Breanne Madigan, Liz Chien, and Marjan Delatinne;

𝐂𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Coil announces the Grant for the Web, a $100 million dollar fund designated for content creators; and I provide my latest Coil author recommendations.  

𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Wietse Wind provides an update on Xumm; A new account splitter is in the works, this one for community-supported sites and applications; XRP Forensics continues to track suspected scammers targeting XRP owners; @SincerelyGeorge organizes the XRP Community Choice Awards, scheduled for mid-November; The LINE Application, which has almost a billion users, integrates Bitmax, which lists XRP; @_JonnyLawrence publishes a new GIF for XRP fans; and XRP The Standard Productions publishes a new video about the basics of the XRP Tip Bot;

I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so!  :JC_coffee2:

My blog announcement links on other platforms:

More happy  talking, little substance.

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19 hours ago, XRPboi said:

Great write up. Interesting point about declined RV sales being tied to an economic turndown - don't consumers cut out many discretionary large ticket items when a recession looms? I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of RV's are purchased with the intention of becoming the owners new primary residence (opposed to just 'another large ticket item').

Anyway.. I love the xrp diagram you posted in your blog. The fact that it includes 'Cash' under 'Banks' and 'Wallets' makes me think about possible solutions that align with the new PayLocal initiative struck between WesternUnion and Amazon.
Your article also touches on some common quotes regarding "fiat and cryptocurrency co-existing." While this may be true in the near term, I think this kind of language is more geared towards regulators and skeptics of digital assets than anyone else. Because the truth is, as more fiat enters from different systems into XRP to be transferred (remittances, P2P, ATM's, e-commerce plugins, etc.), a lot of that fiat is gong to remain in XRP and the ecosystem. And the only way I see this not having an effect on sovereign currency is if it continues to be printed in abundance as well. Or maybe I am looking at this the wrong way..
 

RV Sales may include some number of people who don't have a choice about scaling down, but most of the time when somebody loses their house, it doesn't include an option for 'getting a smaller one;' the bank just takes the house and that's the end of the story. 

Instead, RV sales are primarily linked to the strength of the overall economy in their role as a luxury purchase; a big one. 

 

Quote

I find the Mozilla and Grant For the Web to be very exciting news. I would love to know if a timeline exists on establishing WM/ILP with the W3C, and pushing it out to all major browsers. I know ILP hasn't had any additional changes for at least 2-3 quarters; the project seems to be coming along well with Kava and others growing on it. But at the same time, it's community posts like this one that leave me wondering if it is actually anywhere near ready.. I'd be interested on your take on all of this.

Good question about the timeline.  I don't know if there's a lot of precedents for that. 

FYI - Interledger Connectors did go through an upgrade in the first quarter of this year.  if you're under the impression that 'ILP hasn't had any additional changes for at least 2-3 quarters,' you may want to check out 'Rafiki:'

https://medium.com/interledger-blog/introducing-rafiki-e3de4710d3de


 

Quote


You mention that we are edging closer to the 'delivery point' for a wide variety of Xpring projects including Xumm. Do you have any idea when the initial version of Xumm may be available to the public? Also, you've mentioned that Xumm is far more than just a crypto wallet, because it will eventually integrate with banks, and it is seen by the team as a cornerstone of their overall go-to-market strategy for the other tools and applications they're building. I am very interested in learning how how the signing application they are building might fit into other applications, and what kind of applications those might be. Perhaps large, international banks (and smaller FI"s) may be interested in adding this tech as a layer to their current mobile banking apps? Or would that be thinking too small?

 

Yes; Wietse Wind indicated that the first version of Xumm will be available this year.  I'll flag him in case he wants to comment further: @xrptipbot

Honestly, I had never visualized banks using Xumm.  Again, Wietse can comment.  In all the discussions and examples, it's always been about retail payments or transfers.  Basically, situations where a retailer can send Xumm a 'request for payment' via API. 

 

 

Quote

I've seen many members of the community express concern about the projects Xpring has invested in. But I've also noticed that Xpring partners with some pretty wide-ranging projects, like Blockchain Capital, whose portfolio consists of many impressive projects (including Ripple). The question I have not seen asked yet is this: Is it possible that the investments Xpring makes in other projects/companies allows for the enablement of those projects (as well as the portfolio of projects that fall under each) to access ILP in any way that they might not have otherwise (i.e running validators, or running connectors directly to ILP)? Or is that a stretch?

I don't think that's the goal of Xpring.  Xpring states its goal as higher-level than that; that does sound like a component part of an individual strategy, however.  I do not know the answer, as I don't have insight about the full process for on-boarding new Xpring projects. 

 

Quote

A strategy resembling above would make a lot of sense to me. Because we often hear about how actual, real utility is what is going to ultimately determine a digital assets value and price discovery. However, there are very few other projects on the charts today that have production ready products ready for live use. Wouldn't this mean that if XRP volume in each corridor began to scale quickly, XRP would continue to grow in price exponentially while other coins remained largely unaffected (or even negatively effected as holders of all of those coins jump ship into the only growing asset)? While most of us in this forum would love for that to happen, I don't see the powers that be letting that happen - DS has said numerous times that there can't just be one winner; many projects need to grow together to bring maturity to this space. Maybe this is the true goal of the Xpring investments, as mentioned in the preceding paragraph.. Just a thought. I look forward to any input you can provide!

Well, I don't comment on price, as there are too many unpredictable components that go into price discovery. 

However, I can definitely talk about demand or volume; I would say that currently, even though ILP can handle any currency, and xRapid can settle in any currency, XRP is the one digital asset that possesses the base-layer characteristics and capabilities out-of-the-box that are needed for payment streaming.  (Payment Channels + ILP + STREAM)

So yes, XRP *should* be the primary digital asset benefiting from xRapid volumes.  :JC_thinking:

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12 hours ago, Capone said:

More happy  talking, little substance.

 

Get specific.  Comments like this are not only disrespectful to blog authors that have put enormous effort into their writing (like me), they also disrespect other forum readers who are wondering why you are making a blanket statement like this one. 

Unless, of course, you are intentionally trolling me.

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19 hours ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

The negative intrest rates ( we already have them for retail and corporates in the Netherlands) don’t trigger investors to turn to crypto (yet!), and to be honest, I can’t blame them.  

I wouldn't be too sure. 

I haven't seen any studies that track this recently; it would definitely be useful market information. 

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53 minutes ago, Hodor said:

I wouldn't be too sure. 

I haven't seen any studies that track this recently; it would definitely be useful market information. 

I’ve seen a recent internal study of my employer ( top 3 banks of the Netherlands) which indicates so (no real higher interest for crypto) , but don’t know if the researched population is representative for the whole Dutch population, let alone any international validation. 

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6 hours ago, Hodor said:

Instead, RV sales are primarily linked to the strength of the overall economy in their role as a luxury purchase; a big one.

 

Great write up as always.

What's interesting is that I forsee this metric no longer being an economic indicator (at the very least a major one) in the future. In North America (especially in HCOL areas), many people are either selling their homes, leaving their home (foregoing rent), and buying vans / RV's to live in full-time. The trend of paring down is definitely "hot" right now, but many are having to do it out of necessity, or they're financially pushed to the point of "enough" in regards to paying 50%+ of their take home pay on rent. Many people are definitely opting out of traditional paradigms to reclaim their lives, which is great. 

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On 9/21/2019 at 9:26 AM, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

I’ve seen a recent internal study of my employer ( top 3 banks of the Netherlands) which indicates so (no real higher interest for crypto) , but don’t know if the researched population is representative for the whole Dutch population, let alone any international validation. 

 

There's a gap currently between organized banking's reaction to negative interest rates, and the general public. 

The general public has no patience for this concept.  However, they've grown accustomed to 'almost-zero' interest.  I think 'going negative' will happen soon for retail banking, but they'll disguise it with a label like 'liquidity fee' or some nonsense.  It's the only way they can get away with it (to disguise it and call it something else). 
 

That's my guess.  Eventually retail banking customers will begin to switch, but because banks will be cagey about negative rates, it won't be apparent until people start noticing their bank accounts literally shrinking by large percentages. 

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1 hour ago, Hodor said:

That's my guess.  Eventually retail banking customers will begin to switch, but because banks will be cagey about negative rates, it won't be apparent until people start noticing their bank accounts literally shrinking by large percentages. 

True, people will only really wake up when they see the hard consequences of negative intrest rates , looking at their shrunken savings-account. 

Still:  a fall of nearly 6% in just one day, like XRP suffers today, isn’t exactly  heartwarming either.  

All in all I think crypto as a whole, and XRP specifically, has yet a long way to go before it can act as a safe haven or even a reasonable alternative for more than some daredevils like us in an economic downturn. ( of which we see no sign here at all given the governmental budget for 2020 that was presented traditionally last tuesday). 

What I see more and more happen last months is that people reduce debts ( extra downpayments on mortgages) . 

Anyway:  I’m not hoping for an economic downturn, but when it happens let it please have a negative correlation with XRP of 1.0. 

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin

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On 9/22/2019 at 9:50 PM, Hodor said:

 

There's a gap currently between organized banking's reaction to negative interest rates, and the general public. 

The general public has no patience for this concept.  However, they've grown accustomed to 'almost-zero' interest.  I think 'going negative' will happen soon for retail banking, but they'll disguise it with a label like 'liquidity fee' or some nonsense.  It's the only way they can get away with it (to disguise it and call it something else). 
 

That's my guess.  Eventually retail banking customers will begin to switch, but because banks will be cagey about negative rates, it won't be apparent until people start noticing their bank accounts literally shrinking by large percentages. 

If bank A has some funds in bank B (nostro account), do the funds earn interest? And if the interest rate is going negative, then the funds held in bank B are charged accordingly? It seems to me, that in the environment of negative interests this could be one more reason for banks and FI-s to lean towards holding digital assets like XRP (theoretically rise in value as we hope) instead of (large) nostro accounts. So it could be motivation not only for retail, but also for banks.

Fast google search found an article from 2016: https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/julius-baers-singapore-branch-to-impose-negative-interest-rates-on-some-deposits

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