Scenario: Ripple Goes Public

[Hodor]

Blog URL:  https://coil.com/p/Hodor/Scenario-Ripple-Goes-Public/3vhbFKIWB

Should Ripple 'go public?'  I analyze some basic pros and cons in my latest blog on Coil, and include a hint about the next 'scenario' I'll be analyzing, which may surprise some people.  

I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so!  

My blog announcement links on other platforms:

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• Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread

[Wandering_Dog]

Doesn't produce any goods or services, billion dollar valuation. 

 

[LiquidGoat]

1 hour ago, Wandering_Dog said:

Doesn't produce any goods or services, billion dollar valuation. 

 

So the 200+ banks on ripplenet dont receive a service?

Great blog @Hodor, would only critisise the assumption that MGI are able to save money and thrive...we don't know yet, but i'm also hopeful

[ADingoAteMyXRP]

This is a great think piece. I'm sure Ripple staff have had these conversations before, whether or not they pursue going public.

My only concern with an IPO (and it's a big one) is that public investors wouldn't have the same vision for the company. If you're trying to maximize stock price in the short term, it could lead to huge longterm failures of imagination. Right now Ripple have the right people in charge making the right decisions. Going public feels like it risks that major strategic advantage, and could perhaps bungle the IoV by putting it in the hands of (pardon me) normies. There's a reason why many crypto investors don't see the longterm potential of something like XRP -- and why most investors think crypto is a scam. It questions too many premises in global finance, and requires stretching the imagination a bit.

[iLeeT]

I think Ripple doing an IPO would be very, very bad news for XRP - one could argue that in a matured market this could be seen as a good thing, but crypto is far from a market that makes sense. I would imagine *a lot* of holders and speculators will be selling XRP in order to buy Ripple stocks. I can also picture the FUD that will immediately start - 'now that Ripple is super well funded and stopped sales of XRP would they even bother trying to increase the value of XRP'. 

Imo, as soon as Ripple announces an IPO the price of XRP will tank a lot, probably more than 20% in 24h, I don't think Ripple will do this. Also, going public they'll need to obey a lot of rules etc. and constantly trying to please investors. Currently, the crypto is a bit of a grey area and they can still sell on the market and OTC without giving any explanations or promises - and they have the supply to do this for the next 10-20 years, can't imagine they'll give up on that.

[Julian_Williams]

WOW - that was fascinating.

My worry is that too much money can cause a company to get wasteful and lose focus.  Sometimes having to scratch around for money helps keep the company focused..but there are such obvious advantages to reciving so much money too.

[Guest]

I think that this won't happen any time soon and quite frankly I hope that it doesn't happen any time soon for some obvious reasons that you mentioned in your blog post as well. Billions of XRP gifted to Ripple by the founders should be wisely spent, although the opinions are divided on what and how fast this should be done. Speaking of founders. Your sentence "My guess is that some of the initial Ripple founders would become fantastically wealthy, based only on the value of their original shares in the company." made me smile, thanks for that ;). One could argue that they are already wealthy with just the amount XRP that they already have (gifted to themselves).

[xrpmeplease]

2 hours ago, iLeeT said:

I think Ripple doing an IPO would be very, very bad news for XRP - one could argue that in a matured market this could be seen as a good thing, but crypto is far from a market that makes sense. I would imagine *a lot* of holders and speculators will be selling XRP in order to buy Ripple stocks. I can also picture the FUD that will immediately start - 'now that Ripple is super well funded and stopped sales of XRP would they even bother trying to increase the value of XRP'. 

Imo, as soon as Ripple announces an IPO the price of XRP will tank a lot, probably more than 20% in 24h, I don't think Ripple will do this. Also, going public they'll need to obey a lot of rules etc. and constantly trying to please investors. Currently, the crypto is a bit of a grey area and they can still sell on the market and OTC without giving any explanations or promises - and they have the supply to do this for the next 10-20 years, can't imagine they'll give up on that.

one could argue that every investor in Ripple would have a vested interest in seeing the price of XRP maximized seeing how much of it Ripple currently holds...i have no idea if Ripple as a public company is the best framework for that to happen, but it would surely open the XRP marketplace to new batch of motivated investors.

in any event, i'd be surprised to see this happen, but interesting to think about.

[Hodor]

5 hours ago, Wandering_Dog said:

Doesn't produce any goods or services, billion dollar valuation. 

 

Still trolling in my threads, right? 

Be brave and create your own threads, @Wandering_Dog - you never know who may agree disagree, and the topic can be about whatever you want it to be - negative or positive. 

[Hodor]

4 hours ago, LiquidGoat said:

So the 200+ banks on ripplenet dont receive a service?

Great blog @Hodor, would only critisise the assumption that MGI are able to save money and thrive...we don't know yet, but i'm also hopeful

Thanks, but that comment was reflective (paraphrased) of statements from MGIs CEO. 

However, you are correct in that I don't have the results of their POCs / trials or their earlier runs; perhaps MGI will share that eventually. 

[Hodor]

2 hours ago, iLeeT said:

they have the supply to do this for the next 10-20 years, can't imagine they'll give up on that.

There's no rule that says a public company can't sell digital assets.   I would assume that anything a private company can do, a public company can do as well in terms of laws / rules. 
 

The biggest pitfall would be financial reporting, IMO.  That's where the differences are profound, because essentially you're selling shares of your company to the public. 

[Hodor]

1 hour ago, crypto_deus said:

One could argue that they are already wealthy with just the amount XRP that they already have (gifted to themselves).

Yes.   Even with their private company, it's currently valued at levels that would be ... very nice if some of the executives retired. 

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2018/09/04/ripples-trillion-dollar-man/

[XRPboi]

"A post-IPO company normally has access to a wider array of credit than a private company, and may have more options to raise cash than merely to 'increase sales' of either services or XRP.

So I think XRP programmatic sales would either decline or cease entirely."

Why on earth would public investors want Ripple to stop programmatic sales to the retail markets? That is the easiest cash flow for the company, and only increases as XRP's value grows. I think it is far too early to jump to this conclusion and base an opinion of Ripple going public being good for XRP holders on this premise. I think Ripple going public would worry a lot of XRP holders. Retail has already funded over a billion in XRP sales, and Ripple has "set plans to grow the ecosystem" with all the money they've been gifted. I think we should see some real world usage in several corridors before we start pondering on how to make accredited investors even more money. The last thing Ripple should have is a cash problem - no company in history has had access to the kind of capital they've been provided. 

Great write up nonetheless. 

 

[Mellontes]

8 hours ago, LiquidGoat said:

 

 

8 hours ago, LiquidGoat said:

So the 200+ banks on ripplenet dont receive a service?

Great blog @Hodor, would only critisise the assumption that MGI are able to save money and thrive...we don't know yet, but i'm also hopeful

Ripple is betting $30 million on Moneygram.  Paid triple for their initial shares.  Ripple knows Moneygram will benefit.  To me, when Moneygram reports on Q4 (mid-February 2020) is when the world realizes the impact of RippleNet using XRP.  The consequences of such knowledge will be a magnitude of magnificence.  Also, if results are poor, XRP fails...not gonna happen since it is already setup...

Edited September 8, 2019 by Mellontes
Grammar

[dr_ed]

Haven't even read it yet...but the comments here are worth the price of admission. It's an interesting hypothetical because it's inevitable, in my view, that Ripple will go public at some point. 

I'd own the private placement stock  if I could. People think MGI is a good stock. Ripple could give the best returns of all time.

I can't wait to read your piece.