Jump to content

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, automatic said:

The pace of adoption is picking up quickly.  This is probably a good time to remind everyone that network-effect based expansion takes place exponentially rather than linearly:  already quick pace should only pick up from here.

True. If Ripple keeps dumping XRP, however, XRP may be limited to geometric price growth. :prankster2:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, GoldenGoose said:

True. If Ripple keeps dumping XRP, however, XRP may be limited to geometric price growth. :prankster2:

Thanks @Hodor for the great read per usual. 

@GoldenGoose - Ran a quick analysis on XRP supply relative to the worlds total population. Happy to receive any feedback people want to provide on why this back of the envelope exercise might be flawed but I feel like I built in some metrics to help the analysis remain conservative to account for assumptions not included, primarily transaction velocity. Below shows total population as of 2019 (link provided) and assumes 10% of the total population will use XRP daily in transactions. The right side takes today's supply and assumes the % of total supply that's on exchanges or in wallets that people are holding thus, it is not available for everyday use.

Note, this doesn't factor in velocity, which is a huge assumption but I built in two backstops. One is the assumption that the future total supply of XRP is available today, when likely this won't be the case for many years (and also doesn't assume a declining supply). Secondly, no population growth is assumed, which will not be the case in reality. Long story short, if 10% of the world's population use XRP daily (note, Facebook has more monthly active users than 770MM people) then that equates to roughly 110 XRP needed per person on a daily basis (not assuming velocity of transactions). This is a back of the envelope approach but pretty telling in terms of what's needed to hit mass adoption to drive prices. I don't think we've even hit 100MM people invested in crypto so we're still in the early days. 

image.png

Edited by Mpolnet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, automatic said:

The pace of adoption is picking up quickly.  This is probably a good time to remind everyone that network-effect based expansion takes place exponentially rather than linearly:  already quick pace should only pick up from here.

Exactly. Metcalfe's law.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dr_ed said:

And then there was this other fellow....always positive, always up-to-date on the latest news out of Ripple, always steadfast in his commitment to the XRP story. A more prolific writer than the first guy, and a good one.

His name, as you might have surmised by now, was Hodor. I haven't missed a blog of yours since, I don't believe.

 

 

Wow - what a kind way of providing feedback, @dr_ed!        

That post was a ray of positivity on a Thursday afternoon. 

D4q05D-X4AA1_DD.thumb.jpg.ce502369858e76c4d63d7e98cd9bc253.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mpolnet said:

Happy to receive any feedback people want to provide on why this back of the envelope exercise might be flawed but I feel like I built in some metrics to help the analysis remain conservative to account for assumptions not included,

It's a fun way to look at supply.  Your measurement doesn't take into account escrow, human behavior patterns like hording, speculation, etc.., but if it's just meant to help people understand different numbers then it's just plain fun

And why not make crypto and analysis fun in between when we're aiming for perfection? :yes3:

Quote

The right side takes today's supply and assumes the % of total supply that's on exchanges or in wallets that people are holding thus, it is not available for everyday use.

This particular measurement or assumption assumes that there will be very little speculation even as XRP is recognized as the defacto 'standard' for payments.  In reality, speculation will be like an all-consuming fire if this happens, and demand will spike considerably at times before new plateaus of stability are reached. 

Edited by Hodor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Hodor said:

It's a fun way to look at supply.  Your measurement doesn't take into account escrow, human behavior patterns like hording, speculation, etc.., but if it's just meant to help people understand different numbers then it's just plain fun

And why not make crypto and analysis fun in between when we're aiming for perfection? :yes3:

This particular measurement or assumption assumes that there will be very little speculation even as XRP is recognized as the defacto 'standard' for payments.  In reality, speculation will be like an all-consuming fire if this happens, and demand will spike considerably at times before new plateaus of stability are reached. 

Correct, escrow, holding, speculation, XRP locked up earning interest on exchanges, etc. are all dynamic assumptions so they will always be changing. Total supply being available today was assumed to mainly offset not accounting for transaction velocity. More of a gut check to counter the "ripple keeps dumping XRP and suppressing price" argument :good:. Purposes of including full supply available today was to remain conservative in the BOE analysis. h

Speculation can be accounted for (on a BOE basis) by changing the % of total supply not available trading or on-chain transactions. If you're speculating then you're buying and waiting to sell at some point so this is inherent in the % assumption. But this will change as people sell when price/if price hits there target but new buyers will also come in. Again, this is a dynamic assumption. I added to your "The starting number for utility-based price estimation" thread where these assumptions are made dynamic :D.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"You explored Coil's technology for web content monetization and were able to apprehend what this might mean for adoption of digital assets and XRP. "  I believe you meant to say "comprehend"  Autocorrect is a pita sometimes....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WuWei said:

"You explored Coil's technology for web content monetization and were able to apprehend what this might mean for adoption of digital assets and XRP. "  I believe you meant to say "comprehend"  Autocorrect is a pita sometimes....

No, apprehend works perfectly well in that context. See Definition 2 below.

Apprehend.png

Edited by GoldenGoose
Added screenshot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hodor said:

This particular measurement or assumption assumes that there will be very little speculation even as XRP is recognized as the defacto 'standard' for payments.  In reality, speculation will be like an all-consuming fire if this happens, and demand will spike considerably at times before new plateaus of stability are reached. 

What exactly do you mean by this? Are you referring to an event like the escrow being gifted to the IMF, or XRP being labeled as part of a new reserve currency model?

I ask because it feels like retail speculation and awareness has only continued to increase since 2017/2018, judging by the overall community engagement and ever-increasing number of Youtube videos centered around XRP (and potential price predictions). This long bear market has me questioning how much 'speculation really plays into the overall trends and patterns of crypto assets. It often feels like it is all easier explained by a few large players controlling the market as they please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, dr_ed said:

I was just trying to remember how I found out about XRP.  

Must have been just about a year ago.

I was going to write something about cryptos.....I already knew Bitcoin was a horrible energy hog, and that it had a bubble in 2017 and it was crashing hard. I didn't take it seriously. I wondered if it was ready to go to zero. I had deliberately ignored the 2017 bull run. I was not a believer in BTC. I knew its days were numbered. 

As soon as I looked at some charts though, my investor spider sense kicked in. It was obvious the whole crypto market was already extremely oversold....and I began to look at other coins....I began to try to understand what this new tech --- blockchain ---- really amounted to....Bitcoin was not the whole story. Not even close.

It probably took me a day or so to figure out that there were many other protocols and that there were 2nd and 3rd generation coins that had apparently solved the issues associated with mining. I got more excited. 

I read the Maxi FUD about XRP being a "bankers coin" and all the negative stuff.....and figured immediately it was mostly crap. I went to the blogosphere to see if I  could get some more perspective.

I ran across a couple of really good bloggers.

One was a real curmudgeon, name of Galgitron. He had the online demeanor of a grizzled combat vet, and he obviously didn't suffer fools gladly. But he said a lot of things that made me more interested in XRP.

And then there was this other fellow....always positive, always up-to-date on the latest news out of Ripple, always steadfast in his commitment to the XRP story. A more prolific writer than the first guy, and a good one.

His name, as you might have surmised by now, was Hodor. I haven't missed a blog of yours since, I don't believe.

These times of a sideways market with big drawdowns can test the patience of the most serious investor. It's really good to read that the story is still positive, and the tech is still the best, and the ecosystem is growing fast.

It's been an interesting year for me...in terms of learning. I like to make money, but I love to learn even more. There is nothing more true than that ancient saying :

"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear."

Thanks for being one of my best teachers.

 

 

 

Hang in there dude , it also took me a while to see the difference between Bitcoin and the rest. 

The light will come. :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Capone said:

Hang in there dude , it also took me a while to see the difference between Bitcoin and the rest. 

The light will come. :) 

No...the light will go out, for BTC miners. 

And your snark will die without any help from me, in the fullness of time.

 Energy and the consequences of its overconsumption are the biggest problems facing mankind on this planet, and in a few years the very idea that we ever wasted 70 terrawatts a year mining BTC will seem totally absurd.

I knew that bitcoin was doomed before I ever bought my first coin, and that opinion is unlikely to change. Unsustainable practices simply cannot be sustained. What is it about that, that is so hard to understand?

In the short term...maybe up to 5 years, BTC might make a lot of people wealthy. I don't dispute that. It doesn't change anything about the fundamental flaws that can't and won't ever be fixed.  

Reminds me....one of the coins I stake pays me income in BTC, and I have a small stash as a result. Think I'll flip it for some VET and XRP.   :)

 

 

Edited by dr_ed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...