Jump to content

Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all


Recommended Posts

Recent discussion about bridging CBDCs and the looming global debt crisis got me thinking. How do you shock the global economy out of a descending spiral of high debt and low (or negative) interest rates that has seen us circling the drain for the past decade?

What if XRP is being considered not just as a (the?) global bridge digital asset, but also as a way to address the astronomical, and ever-increasing, cost of global debt? What if, in exchange for nations giving up a portion of their sovereign reserves, as required to create a centralised/IMF global reserve of XRP, those same nations were given the chance to forgive their sovereign debt?

If this were the case, you wouldn't calculate potential XRP value based on transaction flows, but on the realised value of debt forgiven. So I ran the numbers... assuming all 100 billion XRP are available to the market (now we know this isn't strictly true, but the alternative only pushes the $/XRP higher) and using today's Global Debt Clock figure of $59,507,840,000,000 ($59.5 trillion), we come out with a figure of $595 per XRP. Sure, it's a little more than the bear's prophetic $589+ but it's awful close, and besides, that was a year ago and the debt increases daily.

 

What if this was the hint all along?... What if?

 

#xrpthebridge

https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Edited by JoelMcD
typo
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 48
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

CBDCs will be stable coins backed by their national banks, which will not advance the cause of not using the dollar or Euro as an international reserve currency.  The Triffin paradox does not go away.

Riiiiiighhht.  Lets start with, what if XRP was actually used by more than a very small number of financial institutions (which may possibly be only Moneygram), or, what if XRP was used by more than a

Recent discussion about bridging CBDCs and the looming global debt crisis got me thinking. How do you shock the global economy out of a descending spiral of high debt and low (or negative) interest ra

Riiiiiighhht.  Lets start with, what if XRP was actually used by more than a very small number of financial institutions (which may possibly be only Moneygram), or, what if XRP was used by more than a tiny fraction of a single percent of the current total cross border remittances amount.

Sure, its nice to dream, but I haven't seen very many optimistic signs that XRP is being adopted in its designed arena of cross bordered remittances.  I'm not about to believe that it is currently on the road to replace sovereign currencies.  But I'm just some schlub listening to news reports and watching trade volumes, I'm clearly not as well connected as a cartoon bear.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Zerpple said:

Riiiiiighhht.  Lets start with, what if XRP was actually used by more than a very small number of financial institutions (which may possibly be only Moneygram), or, what if XRP was used by more than a tiny fraction of a single percent of the current total cross border remittances amount.

Sure, its nice to dream, but I haven't seen very many optimistic signs that XRP is being adopted in its designed arena of cross bordered remittances.  I'm not about to believe that it is currently on the road to replace sovereign currencies.  But I'm just some schlub listening to news reports and watching trade volumes, I'm clearly not as well connected as a cartoon bear.

Fair point. I suppose everything has to start somewhere. There's the MXN/PHP/USD corridors in play already, and soon XRP will underpin the world's second largest non-bank money transfer company's operations. Sure, it's small change compared to the big picture, but it feels a decent start to me.

I'm not hung up on the figure so much, nor do I kneel at the alter of BG123, but I thought it was interesting when I ran those numbers that it came out so close.

Do I think we have a global debt problem?... yes

Do I think the IMF and central banks want to solve it?... yes, or at the very least contain it

Do I think they'd consider adopting an appreciable asset, that doesn't currently sit on any nation's balance sheet, and could be allocated then increased in value to repay debt, at the same time as providing liquidity to the cross-border payments market and promoting financial inclusion (through low cost financial services)... yes, I sure do.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, captainjack said:

Here's my take on how much science there was behind the prediction: None.

Did he use these metrics to calculate the price? Maybe... Who cares? It was all nonsense anyway. In the history of predictions being made, few people have been as wrong as the bear was.


 

Well, to be fair I only said 'maybe' ;)

I'm less worried about the bear, and more focused on the possibility that addressing global debt might increase the value of XRP. Every time new facts come to light I find myself looking back over past announcements / theories / suggestions to see if it sheds new light on where all this might be going. The recent IMF and BoE talk of the need for change and the idea of a common digital bridging asset got me thinking... why would nations 'buy in'?.... where would the money come from?... where's the fair exchange of value for giving up sovereign reserves?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Cooliozxrp said:

Do people really don't know how debt works or their too clouded by hopium and got lost in the definition of debt?

Not sure I follow.

A government either manages within its budget or it doesn't. When it doesn't for whatever reason, government raises money by selling debt as bonds and guarantees a % return to the buyer after a period of time (3m, 2y, 5y, 10y, etc). It's still debt and needs to be paid on maturity - it's a repayment obligation the same government (or their opposition) will need to make good on in future.

Government bonds are typically seen as a safe place to park cash, and are often required as a % of large investment holdings for institutions, retirement funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. Trouble is... the interest rates are falling through the floor and the debt keeps rising. The system isn't designed to work with negative interest rates.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WarChest said:

Well it’s a bit of fun to speculate as you have. It’s a bit far fetched, but stranger things do happen.

Fun? Far fetched?... It certainly is.

Am I mortgaging the house to 'go all in' for the opportunity... no, not a chance. Though I will be listening carefully to the language used by the IMF, BoE, ECB and others over the next 6-12 months, and taking note of who's sitting at the table.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, JoelMcD said:

Well, to be fair I only said 'maybe' ;)

I'm less worried about the bear, and more focused on the possibility that addressing global debt might increase the value of XRP. Every time new facts come to light I find myself looking back over past announcements / theories / suggestions to see if it sheds new light on where all this might be going. The recent IMF and BoE talk of the need for change and the idea of a common digital bridging asset got me thinking... why would nations 'buy in'?.... where would the money come from?... where's the fair exchange of value for giving up sovereign reserves?

There's been a few theories re: an impending global debt crisis armageddon and how this will be the best thing ever for crypto holders. I don't have any confidence in any of these theories.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m very sceptical because that’s my default position...  but also because I don’t think I could be so lucky.   :) 

I’m sure this thread enrages the negative folk on here...  I don’t think it’s likely,  but I think it’s not impossible.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, captainjack said:

There's been a few theories re: an impending global debt crisis armageddon and how this will be the best thing ever for crypto holders. I don't have any confidence in any of these theories.

I'm with you on that one. Armageddon is out of the question, and as crypto is a high risk asset class it will struggle like everything else if the markets head south and there's a flight to 'safety'.

What I think we will see, however, is more national economies slipping into recession over the next 2-3 quarters with some contagion throughout Europe in particular, and continued downward pressure on interest rates as nations try to kick-start local economic growth. The system is not designed to work with negative interest rates. Something will need to change.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

I’m very sceptical because that’s my default position...  but also because I don’t think I could be so lucky.   :) 

I’m sure this thread enrages the negative folk on here...  I don’t think it’s likely,  but I think it’s not impossible.

Haha, I'm not trying to enrage anyone, though maybe the bear reference in the topic/header was a bit inflammatory ;) 

I'd just ask people to keep an open mind as to where all this could possibly lead. I look back on what got me into XRP years ago (I stumbled across it in 2015 but didn't invest until late 2017), and it was first and foremost the potential of the problems it could solve (both locally and at a global scale) that got my attention. Since then it's been nothing but slow methodical progress in nailing the use case month after month for Ripple and all the others now in the ecosystem (R3, Temenos, Monegram, Central banks, commercial banks, etc). It might feel sometimes like all this is for nothing, and it'll never succeed, but that's the nature of delivering complex change with such a broad group of stakeholders and so many interconnected systems. I should know, I've been delivering technology programs with governments for the past 18 years... it ain't easy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.