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How would a recession in 2021 affect xrp and Ripples strategy?

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So, the US 2 year yield curve crossed the 10 year curve indicating that a recession is coming in the next 22 months. Usually that means that investors will withdraw from high risk investments and bubbles and try to safe their money. So, in your opinion, how would the next recession affect the market, the banking sector and Ripples strategy? 

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Posted (edited)

Nothing about crypto's 10 year history suggests that it is safe.  Have you seen how volatile this **** is?  Don't get me started on use case or tradition. In fact, we've been on a grand bull run since 2008 and many crypto enthusiasts grew up in this unicorn generation. To suggest that anything but a tiny fraction of the population will 'store value' into crypto is laughable.

Edited by mrhat75

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That's a good question. It would be interesting to see how the market will react - I think the narrative that BTC is digital gold and a safe haven might be pushing it a bit, e.g. when the yield curve got inverted all markets tanked, especially BTC, so at the moment it doesn't seem to act completely like gold. If people start seeing it as a safe haven it would mean that crypto/XRP will do OK-ish (at least not lose much value in terms of USD), but otherwise - I expect a significant price drop due to lack of buying power.

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1 minute ago, NightJanitor said:

Personally, I don't think there's a recession in the US...  and I think Goodhart's law applies to the yield curve inversion, due to all the funny business in other countries.

We'll see.  Meantime, I prescribe Douglas Adams' advice.

People have cried about recessions being around the corner since I started following the markets in 2011. They'll be right eventually, but have cried wolf for a long time and may continue for a long time. Even so, it isn't like recessions aren't a natural part of the cycle.  They happen all of the time. The student loan 'crisis' is tiny compared to the housing crisis before 2008. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, mrhat75 said:

People have cried about recessions being around the corner since I started following the markets in 2011. They'll be right eventually, but have cried wolf for a long time and may continue for a long time. Even so, it isn't like recessions aren't a natural part of the cycle.  They happen all of the time. The student loan 'crisis' is tiny compared to the housing crisis before 2008. 

Yes. But the indicators get stronger. The yield curve is but one indicator. The unemployment rate can't be any lower, the Fed recession probability is climbing, the market is at a all time high, the LEI is stagnating. The first countries start to develop recession strategies (Germany) and we have a US that goes nuts on the World market, making it unreliable at best and insane at worst. A recession is a normal part of the cycle and the question is not if it's coming, but how bad will it be. 

EDIT: Predicting recession is a fools game and the question is not if it's coming but what the implications would be for this new market. 

Edited by TheyLive

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9 minutes ago, NightJanitor said:

Tell you what:  you figure out what your real question is - ask it in such a way that you can stick to your question - and you'll probably find your own answer and not have to ask.

" So, in your opinion, how would the next recession affect the market, the banking sector and Ripples strategy?"

What's your problem?

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Just now, TheyLive said:

" So, in your opinion, how would the next recession affect the market, the banking sector and Ripples strategy?"

What's your problem?

I guess that I find it to be an incredibly huge question with an inordinate amount of supposition and therefore find it to be one of those questions that certain types of teachers say do not exist:  the mythical "stupid question."   (This could just be because I have some sense of the scale and scope of the three tiny areas for which you want a forecast...)

Frankly, also, it annoyed me that when I didn't go along with your "a recession is imminent" bit, you changed the question by proclaiming that "predicting a recession is a fool's game" --- but, hey, let's predict what the entire market, banking sector, and then Ripple would do, you know, in the event of one.

Idjit.

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19 minutes ago, NightJanitor said:

I guess that I find it to be an incredibly huge question with an inordinate amount of supposition and therefore find it to be one of those questions that certain types of teachers say do not exist:  the mythical "stupid question."   (This could just be because I have some  of the scale and scope of the three tiny areas for which you want a forecast...)

Aha

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, NightJanitor said:

 

Frankly, also, it annoyed me that when I didn't go along with your "a recession is imminent" bit, you changed the question by proclaiming that "predicting a recession is a fool's game" --- but, hey, let's predict what the entire market, banking sector, and then Ripple would do, you know, in the event of one.

Idjit.

Id prefer that if you quote me, you'd quote me correct but that would indicate that you're capable and reading and understanding context. You're an arrogant prick that's so high up his own ass that he assumes discussing a hypothetical scenario is an attack on his personal belief. You add nothing to the discussion except hatred, arrogance and spite. 

Edited by TheyLive

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Posted (edited)

I don’t think we should focus on the US debt or wait for the next full-scale recession to find this out. The FED is playing wait-and-see game and pushing back on Trump’s attempts to introduce Quantitative Easing for a simple reason - the ECB is in even bigger trouble and they need to find a new approach to kick-start the economy. According to Olli Rehn, the ECB "will announce a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should overshoot investors' expectations”. Overshoot or not, there are two interesting questions to answer:

1. Where will all those billions of euro per month from corporate purchases be re-distributed? (By no means I suggest it’ll all be in crypto)

2. What other options the ECB has if/when QE does not work this time? Bear in mind that current negative rates already brought the financial system of Europe to the brink of collapse. 

My guess - there will be an attempt to introduce a new asset class by European authorities in 2020, it’ll be connected to CBDC/DA/crypto and comes hand-in-hand with a new crypto regulation. If they are fast enough in this endeavor - we might see a huge inflow of new money. And by huge I mean HUGE. Otherwise crypto market will stay what it is (for a period of time) - manipulated pump and dump casino.

Edited by Lamberth

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4 minutes ago, TheyLive said:

Id prefer that if you quote me, you'd quote me correct but that would indicate that you're capable aid reading and understanding context. You're an arrogant prick that's so high up his own ass that he assumes discussing a hypothetical scenario is an attack on his personal belief. You add nothing to the discussion except hatred, arrogance and spite. 

Would you like to hear my position on the Oxford comma?

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