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Charting the course of XRP


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11 minutes ago, hsc said:

I understand for some people 3 USD are enough. It is reasonable to cash out if one can get the life changing money. The question is, many people believe 3 USD is the top, not the 2.5, nor the 5. How do they come with such a conclusion? 3 USD is just close to the ATH, that's all. However, other cryptos and history shows that previous ATH is not important to this bull run.

Because after holding XRP at $0.35 for 3 years, we are all scared to shit that the last ATH $3.5 is just a one off reality. 

However, with the expectation being so low, does it mean that we are no where near the top when we "insiders" is so scare and the general market still think XRP is a shit coin?

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XRP still never even gets mentioned with bitcorn and ether when it comes to funds/institutional investment/corporate holdings/etc. With the prominent American crypto company behind it, with some form of regulatory clarity around the corner, that type of exposure is still out in front of us. 

If Ripple continues opening more corridors with ODL, and as the volume of transactions starts to really turn heads, the runway just keeps getting longer.

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Usually markets always do the opposite of what people expect for some strange reason.

The sentiment in here, among XRP "insiders" is of one caution and scepticism of this current move. People are even writing that it's going up too fast and that is the opposite of 2017 / early 2018 where everyone got caught with their pants down and almost no one took profit around $3. Based on that, because you know, life has a tendency to kick us in the nuts for shits and giggles, I think we'll see the opposite happen. The price won't come down violently this time and lots of XRP holders will sell too early unfortunately.

Secondly, this run is different than the previous one in 2017, the fundamentals/sentiment are really negative. Despite that the price is rocketing up, this is super strong and to me this indicates like people in the know buying and/or it's a coordinated whale pump. Furthermore, price is going up smoothly, and this is despite XRP being in the dog house by the SEC and being unlisted and generally hated among big parts of the crypto community.

So, this time I'm not going to sell early as I think there's a fair chance we'll blow past ATH so fast that it'll make our heads spin. I might take a little off the table here and there but after 4 years XRP has become personal for me and it just wouldn't feel right to sell for some odd reason. That's of course if I don't need the money. I don't mind riding it up to whatever amount and down to $0.20 again. I'm used by now.

So I guess I'll predict $5.21 this bull run and then I have no idea :lol:

Lastly, this is not based on any serious analysis whatsoever, just sharing my thoughts for fun.

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Recently I've done some quick study of the top 500 coins by market cap, throwing away projects that are clearly dead, over 90% (I didn't do the exact math, may be over 95%) of coins reached NEW ATHs in this bull run.

Now I'm not saying XRP will do that, nor I'm saying it won't. I know my wife and in-laws are telling me to take out up to half of my stack now and I'm hesitant to do so.

My current plan is to sell 5 to 8% of whatever my stack is at certain intervals. I'm still debating what the intervals are though.

😐

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1 hour ago, hsc said:

As a long time hodler from October 2017, I really have a question to ask. Why are people so pessimistic in this bull run? Many people believe 3-4 USD are quite dangerous and wish to cash out if XRP reaches 3 USD. In 2017, XRP reached 3 USD when BTC was hovering around 15000 and ETH was less than 1000. Now BTC is 60000 and ETH is more than 2000. Many ALTs value several times more than their 2017 ATH. I am wondering why most people don't believe XRP can double or triple or even more its ATH which means 6 USD, 9 USD or 12 USD just like many other cryptos. XRP reached more than 20000 Satoshi in last two peaks in 2017. Why are there so few people believe history  can repeat itself ?I am not trying to convince people that XRP can reach 12 USD or so. I just would like to understand how you guys think about this so I may make better decisions. Thank you very much.  

experience. we are careful 

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If cryptocurrency is something that is here to stay (and it certainly seems so now), then all we have to do is be patient. It just means more and more money is going to shift from other asset classes into crypto. Which means we don't have a clue how high the market caps can go yet. Trillions have already become the new billions. 

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Another thing to ponder is;

Which of the 2 following scenarios do you think is the worst.

1) Selling early, taking a profit, say at XRP $2.4 (you made x5) but then having to watch XRP go to $20.

2) Being greedy (or fanboi) holding too long or having too high expectations. Let's say it goes to $20, but you don't take profit and then you ride it down to $0.50 again.

I think scenario 1 is worse because sitting on the sidelines watching price keep going up probably hurts more than loosing the initial capital.  

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1 minute ago, Warg said:

Another thing to ponder is;

Which of the 2 following scenarios do you think is the worst.

1) Selling early, taking a profit, say at XRP $2.4 (you made x5) but then having to watch XRP go to $20.

2) Being greedy (or fanboi) holding too long or having too high expectations. Let's say it goes to $20, but you don't take profit and then you ride it down to $0.50 again.

I think scenario 1 is worse because sitting on the sidelines watching price keep going up probably hurts more than loosing the initial capital.  

lol you really think 5x gains are worse than losing your initial capital?

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