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Charting the course of XRP


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5 minutes ago, mihaisyblu said:

Mostly you had a fair comment. However, I think you're wrong about when BTC and XRP will hit the previous ATH.

The previous cycle of Bitcoin and XRP lasted 4 years. The penultimate ATH of the BTC began in December 2013 (1200 USD). This cycle ended with a new bubble in December 2017 (20,000 usd). That means 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 >> 4 YEARS.>> 

>> Unfortunately since the last bubble BTC has not even passed 2 years. The year when BTC and XRP will reach new ATH will be 2021 > 4 years from the last BTC bubble (2017). Everything I say can be verified on a historical XRP and BTC chart. I believe that the last ATH on BTC (20,000 usd) and XRP (3.5 usd) will be reached by the end of 2020. By 2021 it is possible to reach new ATH.

Will the new BTC cycle be accelerated? Will it be less than 4 years? Will it only take 3 years? :-) For now ... I have serious reasons to doubt this ... but we'll see. Of course, I would be glad if a new ATH on the XRP will be reached sooner than 2021. :-)

What we should see soon ( I think anyway), is for BTC to break out to a NEW high that will take out the PRIOR ATH. I agree the actual ATH for this cycle is probably still roughly 2 years away. But the old ATH is due to fall on the timeline @Shani is describing.

 

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19 minutes ago, mihaisyblu said:

Principalmente tuviste un comentario justo. Sin embargo, creo que te equivocas cuando BTC y XRP alcanzarán el ATH anterior.

El ciclo anterior de Bitcoin y XRP duró 4 años. El penúltimo ATH del BTC comenzó en diciembre de 2013 (1200 USD). Este ciclo terminó con una nueva burbuja en diciembre de 2017 (20,000 usd). Eso significa 2014, 2015, 2016 y 2017 >> 4 AÑOS. >> 

>> Desafortunadamente, desde la última burbuja, BTC ni siquiera ha pasado 2 años. El año en que BTC y XRP alcanzarán un nuevo ATH será 2021> 4 años desde la última burbuja de BTC (2017). Todo lo que digo se puede verificar en un gráfico histórico XRP y BTC. Creo que el último ATH en BTC (20,000 usd) y XRP (3.5 usd) se alcanzará para fines de 2020. Para 2021 es posible alcanzar un nuevo ATH.

¿Se acelerará el nuevo ciclo BTC? ¿Serán menos de 4 años? ¿Solo tomará 3 años? :-) Por ahora ... Tengo serias razones para dudar de esto ... pero ya veremos. Por supuesto, me alegraría que se alcanzara un nuevo ATH en el XRP antes de 2021. :-)

If the cycles in the markets were repeated exactly like the previous ones, we would all be millionaires. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. my humble opinion. hug

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8 minutes ago, Cesar1810 said:

If the cycles in the markets were repeated exactly like the previous ones, we would all be millionaires. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. my humble opinion. hug

I just offered some landmarks from the past. And I think it doesn't work that way. Estimating future prices based on previous prices is very relative. However, why does everyone think that prices will evolve faster? Maybe this is wishful thinking? Should prices evolve slower? :-)
 
 

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Thanks for the replies.  These comments remind me of one of Brad's recent interviews where he predicts that utility will take over assumption in 5 years even for BTC. I remember he mentioned this. Xrp is what Apple was in the 90s. Price was below dollar investors frustrated on negative perception in media and then Boom. 

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10 minutes ago, mihaisyblu said:

I just offered some landmarks from the past. And I think it doesn't work that way. Estimating future prices based on previous prices is very relative. However, why does everyone think that prices will evolve faster? Maybe this is wishful thinking? Should prices evolve slower? :-)
 
 

It's just that the ATH for this cycle is apt to be significantly higher for BTC, based on the same history you're quoting. Maybe somewhere between $80K and $200K before the cycle turns back down. In the past we've mostly had 3 years up and 1 down for a cycle. Nothing says it has to work out on exactly that timeline either. We could have a left translated cycle that could top sooner.....I'm not looking for it, but that's what cycle counters would worry about. I'm hoping for a nice LONG right translated cycle.

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12 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

It's just that the ATH for this cycle is apt to be significantly higher for BTC, based on the same history you're quoting. Maybe somewhere between $80K and $200K before the cycle turns back down. In the past we've mostly had 3 years up and 1 down for a cycle. Nothing says it has to work out on exactly that timeline either. We could have a left translated cycle that could top sooner.....I'm not looking for it, but that's what cycle counters would worry about. I'm hoping for a nice LONG right translated cycle.

Crypto Market, BTC and XRP are young markets. But slowly, slowly they will mature. Maturation means that those huge ROIs from the past will start to fall slightly. I don't think the XRP will reach 37 X more than in 2017. A 25-29 X is probably more likely. Like I said ... wait to see how things will unfold. I think the next ATH on Bitcoin will not exceed 80,000 usd. But there are simple theories. :-)

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Just now, baobeiiiii said:

Care to make a stab at a price?

Hoping for $50.......but it's more about what I WANT to happen than any evidence that it WILL happen.  lol.

I don't have a good argument for it based on the state of affairs that exists today......it depends on some fairly big shifts in the action...not necessarily directly related to utility.....but what I hope will drive it is that banks will, at some point, buy big, in anticipation of FUTURE utility.

We need them to accumulate a lot of XRP......get it off the market.

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3 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

Hoping for $50.......but it's more about what I WANT to happen than any evidence that it WILL happen.  lol.

I don't have a good argument for it based on the state of affairs that exists today......it depends on some fairly big shifts in the action...not necessarily directly related to utility.....but what I hope will drive it is that banks will, at some point, buy big, in anticipation of FUTURE utility.

We need them to accumulate a lot of XRP......get it off the market.

My mindset is conditioned to wait for another few years before the next cycle kicks in.

To join the last cycle you had to be capable of setting up an account on one of the very few exchanges available and owning complex user hostile wallets.  It also helped if you had an anarchist, anti-establishment mindset.  When the next cycle gets started it will be open to anyone with a mobile to buy stock with their credit cards on their mobiles and store it on much simpler wallets (often built in to their phones but backed up with software that allows you to retrieve money from lost phones).  For this reason the next cycle is likely to be much larger than the last one was.  

 

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7 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

My mindset is conditioned to wait for another few years before the next cycle kicks in.

To join the last cycle you had to be capable of setting up an account on one of the very few exchanges available and owning complex user hostile wallets.  It also helped if you had an anarchist, anti-establishment mindset.  When the next cycle gets started it will be open to anyone with a mobile to buy stock with their credit cards on their mobiles and store it on much simpler wallets (often built in to their phones but backed up with software that allows you to retrieve money from lost phones).  For this reason the next cycle is likely to be much larger than the last one was.  

 

The counter argument to this would be that crypto was very illiquid back then and thus relatively smaller amounts of money resulted in much larger price action.  With higher access and liquidity comes higher amounts of money to move the price.  Or at least so it would seem to me.... I don't think we will get the 40x type stuff of the past, my guess would be somewhere 10-15x.  But again, based on nothing.  Time will tell.

If we end 2019 at $1 I will be thrilled.

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