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Charting the course of XRP


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27 minutes ago, Troote said:

And to elaborate on that...

Imagine that the SEC forces people to stop trading USDT like they did for XRP. People go on exchanges, move their USDT to $ or sell their BTC for $ instead of USDT. Problem is - the exchanges no longer have the $ because they gobbled it all and used fake money instead. Impossible to sell, impossible to cash out. The money is all gone. Kaboom crypto industry.

I've never needed/used USDT, so please excuse my ignorance, but isn't Tether backed 1:1 with/by USD?

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1 minute ago, Gambaard said:

I've never needed/used USDT, so please excuse my ignorance, but isn't Tether backed 1:1 with/by USD?

That is what Tether claims but some people dispute it. There is also claims the bull run of 2017 was fueled by Tether printing USDT out of thin air with no backing. My opinion is I have no doubt that Tether has some cash to cover some withdrawals of USDT but should  for example 50% or more people holding USDT across various crypto assets choose to withdraw then we are in for something very ugly.

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21 minutes ago, Gambaard said:

I've never needed/used USDT, so please excuse my ignorance, but isn't Tether backed 1:1 with/by USD?

Maybe. I wouldn't know. What I do know is that If I were in control of Tether, I would be really tempted to take just a teeny weeny little bit of the pie to buy myself some nice shoes. Nobody would notice. And that is probably the only goal the inventor of Tether had in mind.

The key question when you do a risk assessment is to ask: "what if?". What if USDT shares some of the characteristics that prompted the SEC to sue Ripple about XRP? What if it isn't backed 1:1? What if there is only $.50 in the vault per 1 USDT? What if there is only $.10 in the vault per 1 USDT? 

It doesn't mean the risk is real or that it will materialize. It is what it is - a risk. The issue with this risk is that there is nothing we, as individual, can do, and the impact would be huge. If this particular risk materializes, we are all properly, utterly and completely screwed. The only mitigation was to never start using Tether in the first place, but unfortunately we are way past the point of no-return.

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47 minutes ago, solid102 said:

That is what Tether claims but some people dispute it.

Do they claim that? This¬†Forbes article states:¬†‚ÄúSo Tether does not have 100% traditional currency backing for its reserves. It has ‚Äúcash equivalents,‚ÄĚ which are presumably other cryptocurrencies (like pegging to a volatile asset is¬†such¬†a good way of ensuring stability). And some of its ‚Äúreserves‚ÄĚ are held in the form of loans that it has made to other parties. Tether has become an unregulated fractional reserve bank.‚ÄĚ

Any USDT backed by other crypto currencies makes it extremely risky in my view...

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/03/14/tethers-u-s-dollar-peg-is-no-longer-credible/

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11 minutes ago, FVM said:

Do they claim that? This¬†Forbes article states:¬†‚ÄúSo Tether does not have 100% traditional currency backing for its reserves. It has ‚Äúcash equivalents,‚ÄĚ which are presumably other cryptocurrencies (like pegging to a volatile asset is¬†such¬†a good way of ensuring stability). And some of its ‚Äúreserves‚ÄĚ are held in the form of loans that it has made to other parties. Tether has become an unregulated fractional reserve bank.‚ÄĚ

Any USDT backed by other crypto currencies makes it extremely risky in my view...

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/03/14/tethers-u-s-dollar-peg-is-no-longer-credible/

maybe the put it all in a "store of value" crypto.  Can't be more sensible than that.

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2 hours ago, solid102 said:

What I am  trying to understand and wrap my head around right now is that everyone who was going to sell would have sold when the SEC new hit hard and the evidence was strong that showed that plenty of retail investors sold and got out of their positions and who ever remained are the ones who are not going to sell no matter what because the SEC suing Ripple that was the bomb of bombs heck we saw some hardcore XRP Hodlers flip on this very board ones I would have never imagined would flip.

Which leads me to believe there is some manipulation shenanigans going on big time right now becuase if an investor did not sell  when SEC lawsuit dropped why would they sell when Coinbase decides to delist not now but in 3 weeks time.... plus weird price movements such as XRP going from 0.2 to 0.33 in a matter of 10 seconds is not normal at all...

It is the Chinese exchanges doing this.

USA (XRP) versus China (BTC/ETH) and the war is getting dirty. Has anyone checked for Beijing placemen in the SEC? They have infiltrated a lot of Western instituitions

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4 hours ago, Troote said:

I think your timeframes are a bit too short. The mini-pump now is a dead cat bounce, almost certainly. My expectations:

1. Within 1-2 weeks: a few more announcements about delisting/halting. All bearish on a short time frame. I expect the impact of each announcement to reduce. Coinbase was a shock, the next announcement will be less of a surprise.

2. Within months: we should start seeing good news from Ripple and the ecosystem. Ripple is going to defend and do some propaganda. The SEC will not comment. They fired their shots, I don't think they will be very vocal from now on. If Ripple/XRPLF play their cards right, we are in for a treat.

3. Within 1-2 years: case concludes for better or for worse. The BTC bull market is going to take 1 or 2 years too. There will be fluctuations in between - but if the circumstances don't change, I expect XRP's fundamentals to have evolved for the better during that time. Brad and Chris L heads will probably roll (we can already see David S is distancing himself from them - see here). A buy now is for a 1 or 2y horizon, not 1 week or 2 months. I believe the ROI could be absolutely spectacular, especially if the outcome of the lawsuit is positive - which I think it may well be.

There is one major caveat to this. The looming disaster that will completely kill the market is the SEC taking Tether to court. I am 99% certain this will happen, the question is when. The fact that the SEC is quite zealous with Ripple may be an indication that this will happen much sooner than we anticipate. If the SEC takes Tether to court, I expect this will wipe out 90% off BTC, ETH and everything else. No bull run for anyone and one cataclysmic sh*t show, much much worse than what we see with Ripple. Right now, this is the real threat that keeps me awake at night.

My god. Why would you remind me of Tether?

Why would you even share this thought or fart it into existence? 

SEC could be watching this and taking notes.

I just shit myself. Oh lawd, we are all doomed.

The SEC is such a buzz kill.

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I do not fully understand the panic!

Before the Flare pump, price was on average 30-35 cents!

 

ok, with Flare pump it went to 75 cents, but people got good stuff for the future this way!

 

Now, SEC, blasts this, it goes down in half for example (from average, before the Flare thing)

So, from 35 cent, to 17.5 cent (then rebounds)

Ok!

So what is the issue!?

 

Those American exchanges, who cares, ok, they delist, its their loss, not gain, if they can not even read the rules of the game properly!

 

What else is negative!?

 

Nothing!

 

Xrp is a security is a win and Xrp is not a security is a win!

 

By Law!

 

Those other stuff like Bitcoin, not a security, and!? it helps them?!

 

What if crypto is indeed the future?!

 

They (ETH, BTC) want to be traded on childhood unregulated exchanges of the past, or....

 

Be following the Big Boys!

 

XRP!

 

Took the Boss - Head On!

 

Case not dismissed/ lost or won/ case gives a new Asset Class!

A new Boss in Town!

 

Not Bitcoin, who overshadow everything and is the Crypto Standard!

No!

 

This is the Birth! of a New Standard!

 

That Overshadows Everything!

 

Of course, Coin Standard was easier than trading a goat for a cow, but a coin is still heavy, pulls the pocket, and susceptible to snatch!

 

What came Next!?

 

I do not know!

 

(But, it was - Fun!)

 

:connie_hooked:

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