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Charting the course of XRP


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33 minutes ago, 2ndtimearound said:

I agree with you that the SEC don't care about us, but neither do Chris Larson or Brad Garlingouse.  They are all feathering their nests.  We were the idiots propping up the XRP price.  We were the purists.  We were the believers in the Internet of Value more than upper mangement of Ripple.  They didn't have to believe it in it.  They had bigger and more immediate profits that turned their heads enough to take their eye off the ball: it's nearly 2021 and ODL (xRapid launched on 1st October 2018) is next to nothing in terms of volume. No excuses there. "Lack of regularity clarity" is a nonsense excuse when they can focus on corridors outside the US. There isn't the incentive to make it work when you've got bigger profits by easier means.

shocking to see @2ndtimearound is another @Julian_Williams , interesting times seeing many xrp supporters convert, cant wait to see what is the ultimate outcome of the case and what will be the fate for both supporters and converters

27 minutes ago, HenrySeldom said:

It could also be quickly settled / dismissed with the incoming administration. These Ripple execs have been pretty vocal on Twitter about their political preference for Biden. I see a lot of folks overlooking or even downplaying the brute political component here. 

i like your name, i will call myself HopiumFrequent then

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18 minutes ago, Hopium said:

Calm down bois, 100,000 cartons of Hopium supply incoming, take your doses accordingly below:

1. Timing of the SEC case is just weird, if anything is fishy, it probably is. Considering Ripple trying to work so hard with the regulator, connected with so many entities in various countries around the world for the sake of Ripplenet, partnership with BoA which is in US, SBI backing it like their life depend on it, and many more, and yet SEC slap ripple with the lawsuit.

2. A lot of the arguments in the SEC side dont make sense or questionable. If you care to take the time to read it, you'll quickly detect those nonsense in no time, overall it is as if SEC targeting Brad and Larsen rather than XRP, and throw some FUD alongside for XRP trying to drag XRP along.

3. If anything, this is just smoke and mirrors, ripple has the option to settle but didnt went for it, instead chose to boldly take on SEC head to head. Know what this means? If ripple wins, there will be "Ripple Test" in the crypto world just like the "Howey Test" in the traditional world, and finally get the clarity we've been so desperately needed.

4. Come on guys, like the old saying goes, money invested in crypto is as good as gone, why get emotional about it? To be honest, if brad didnt announce they're going to fight with SEC and be on the right side of law and history, i would seriously consider selling, after Brad's letter im willing to go down with the ship if it happens, it's a chance i'm willing to take. If ripple wins, we would not have time to re-enter and would be priced out, if ripple loses, then treat it like waking from a bad dream, nothing more. So im not selling, NOT HAPPENING.

5. Look at LTC, the founder Charlie Lee already dumped his stash, there's no more fundamentals in it, it is as good as shitcoin, but look at the chart now, it is on the bullrun why?????? It just shows that even if fundamental is lost, the asset can still pump, so in the event ripple lost the battle, it will just be another LTC, drifting and riding along with the bullrun daddy BTC carries, perhaps not now because of the fresh SEC case, wait till dust settles then XRP will be just like LTC.

6. This is the exact moment right before the blast off from 2017, the sentiment was absolutely garbage for XRP due to not riding the bullrun, while BTC already reaching the tops, a lot sold XRP then, the final outcome was XRP pumped the hardest in 2017. I dont think it is unlikely the case will drag for too long, ripple has to continue building on the Internet of value too, most likely it will resolve within the year 2021, perhaps June or Oct which coincides with the end of the 4 year cycle.

7. This is all just a show. They're aware how retail understands XRP is the one, and many are holding it. The big bois are trying to flush out as many holders as possible by orchestrating the show of suing the Ripple then Ripple fighting back aggressively, and announcing things loudly, as if wanting the whole world to know. Such a case happened in the traditional world before, google it, im not going to spoonfeed you. Becoming a millionaire isnt easy, if there's no such level of FUD, there will be too many millionaire if things are only smooth sailing, only sunshine and rainbows.

8. Lots of unwavering XRP supporters are announcing their selloff, including the one i least expecting, which is @Julian_Williams . Again, invest what you're willing to lose, there's only 3 outcomes, either you invest too much and upset upon a God level FUD and selloff, or you invested just enough but cant bear to see it lose and sell, or you go down with the ship, if this thing reverse and skyrocketed once the show has ended, the people associated with the former 2 outcomes will be kicking themselves. We can never win timing the market or announcement, they knew the details ahead of us, all we can do is hodl and sit it out, or sell if cant see anymore life in it.

9. Brad mentioned they havent announce their side of the story yet, as of now we only heard the SEC version of the story, and as Stuart emphasized "Alleged" which means not facts yet. At the very very least why not wait for Brad to give their side of the story first before deciding to sell or not? The SEC may not be always right and may misunderstood some actions ripple made and accidentally spewed FUD.

10. With the God level FUD, the price should be about 20c or 15c now, or even below 15c, but why it is still at 30c? Someone is scooping them up, i dont know who, most retail are terrified so im positive it is not retail defending the price, i will leave the guessing work to you.

11. If this is just a show then why exchanges are delisitng it? Especially bitstamp? I guess not all are privy to the done deal made behind closed doors, even if they knew, they're going to play along with the show to make it seem more real. Or they're just terrified of the SEC and are just protecting themselves for possible consequences.

12. All the positive news prior to the SEC case, seemed to get washed down into the drain 1 shot after the SEC case was made known. Can your memory be that bad? No i cant blame you, it is human nature, if someone treated me good for 30 days, and suddenly 1 day that person slapped me, i would be furious and labeled that person as enemy, rendering the 30 days of friendship null and void. Come on, reflect back what deals ripple had made in the past, some of them are not small feat, if you think the SEC can have their way after all of these building and hard work, then all humanity is lost, and crypto will be the biggest bitconnect of the history, with the exception of BTC and ETH.

13. **TA related** - If anything, a chart looked like this would mean it is likely the bottom is in (yes we heard that countless times, but i'll say it regardless). The price repeatedly refuse to go below 25c, and keep bouncing back when the price attempt to travel thru that price point, see attached below pic.

//////////////////////////////////////

Bois, it all boils down to just the few questions below, i call it the HODL framework:

1. Did you invested more than you can afford to lose? If yes, sell. If no, read point 2.
2. Do you need the money any time soon? For school fee maybe? To feed your family, wife or babies? If yes, sell, if no, read point 3.
3. Will you kick yourself if you sold but the final outcome is moon? If yes, HODL. If no, read point 4.
4. Congrats you get your invested money back, perhaps lesser than what you initially put in, perhaps still a net gain, but it is nothing close to life changing. So, what you're planning to do with your excess money now? You do you.

 

HODL ON, i'm going down with the ship if the universe decided I am (along with many other holders) unworthy of life changing gains and forever be a wage slave.
But if this turned out to be really just a show, then we're over the Final Boss and finally get to earn that sweet sweet life changing gains.

It all boils down to only 2 outcomes, Win or Lose the SEC case, Win will clear all roadblocks for ripple to ramp up ODL efforts without restrictions and moon, Lose will make XRP just another LTC, drifting wherever the tide wants it to go, perhaps just stay dead at 10c.

This is not something we can time, im not going to risk it by exiting and re-enter. 
I am going to tell my future kids that Daddy hold thru all the shake outs and became Mr Parabolic.

 

image.thumb.png.3a243642c60c82276cd5867ae05e2194.png

Hopium Pepe = Best Pepe! 

5fe8b20f4ee0b.png

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20 minutes ago, Hopium said:

shocking to see @2ndtimearound is another @Julian_Williams , interesting times seeing many xrp supporters convert, cant wait to see what is the ultimate outcome of the case and what will be the fate for both supporters and converters

i like your name, i will call myself HopiumFrequent then

It's been shocking to me too! :P

I react to information.  If that makes me change my mind, so be it.  Being humbled is never a bad thing.  Is this all a 4D chess game and I've been rumbled and shaken out of my XRP holdings by a clever US government who don't want me to hold a decent amount of XRP? (that's one theory).  Then OK...well I still hold 10% of my holdings, and I still have 100% of my spark tokens coming to me next year.  Read the comments below Digital Asset Investor and "Moon Lambo"'s YouTube channels in the last few days - all conspiracy theories about shaking out retail investors so the US government can hoover up all the XRP they can. It was never about conspiracy theories for me.  It was about the technical advantages (of XRP over other cryptos) and business plans.  Where are the business plans now, 3 years after I bought XRP? ODL is struggling 2 years after launching as xRapid on 1st October 2018. Why? "Lack of regularity clarity!".  Come on. There's plenty of corridors outside the US. 

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XRPBTC chart finally hit the true bottom happened in 2017, before this it was only barely hit the lows of 2017, now we officially surpass it a little (thanks SEC!)

if this is another sign of a hard reversal (or alt season), then bring it

too many factors pointing to bullrun, and coincidentally SEC pop out to ruin our mood, i dont believe in coincidence, nothing works against me, i will stick to my 4 year cycle plan and hodl till my hands become dust if there is no bullrun till im age 99

or i will make it and encrust my hands with diamonds

image.thumb.png.87e10a0f563cba0f6f0b7b41b97949b2.png

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1 hour ago, Troote said:

https://www.securitize.io/thought-leadership/blogs/5-things-investors-need-to-know-about-digitial-securities

"In the US, most digital securities are offered under an SEC exemption — commonly a 506c Reg. D exemption, which allows for a maximum of 2,000 accredited investors in the offering. To comply with this regulatory requirement digital securities can be coded so that investors are only allowed to buy, sell, or trade digital securities if they have passed necessary KYC/AML accreditation and are considered accredited investors. At the same time, digital securities can monitor the entire offering to ensure that the 2,000 investor threshold limit is maintained. The equivalent confirmation for a traditional security could take weeks in order for the trade to happen. Digital securities allow for faster deal execution because compliance is verified virtually instantaneously."

https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/rule-506-regulation-d

Here's your answer.

Christ. The SEC are going to make the poor cucks to the rich in crypto too.

Free condoms for the unsophisticated!

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1 minute ago, 2ndtimearound said:

It's been shocking to me too! :P

I react to information.  If that makes me change my mind, so be it.  Being humbled is never a bad thing.  Is this all a 4D chess game and I've been rumbled and shaken out of my XRP holdings by a clever US government who don't want me to hold a decent amount of XRP? (that's one theory).  Then OK...well I still hold 10% of my holdings, and I still have 100% of my spark tokens coming to me next year.  Read the comments below Digital Asset Investor and "Moon Lambo"'s YouTube channels in the last few days - all conspiracy theories about shaking out retail investors so the US government can hoover up all the XRP they can. It was never about conspiracy theories for me.  It was about the technical advantages (of XRP over other cryptos) and business plans.  Where are the business plans now, 3 years after I bought XRP? ODL is struggling 2 years after launching as xRapid on 1st October 2018. Why? "Lack of regularity clarity!".  Come on. There's plenty of corridors outside the US. 

as much as we want to believe US is only just 1 country, it isnt.

sure, ripple can go after many corridors outside of US, but US alone can fast track its plan exponentially if given the green light, after all US is the super nation

if US is not important as many are touting, ripple would have left US without making a fuss and carry on with their vision and mission, but they insist to stay and beg, why???

it's like getting entities outside US to sign up is equivalent to getting 0.01% in progress per successful attempt (could be around 5 to 10% by now after all these years), and getting a US green light is equivalent to instant progress to 80%, you get me?

as US is a super nation, countries tend to look up to it for examples, if US set a favorable precedent for ripple/xrp, then other country can easily follow suit and exponentially ease out the process of getting deals done, sign up for ripplenet, etc. In contrast now, for every successful deal, ripple has to convince before reaching the deal, instead of the default response of "oh US already given the green light, we dont need to discuss further, lets go", and sign as many as they want to onboard everyone

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going to the chart I have this interpretation: the weekly candle closed below 20sma.

This week price will retrace up to 20 sma and then proceed down for another leg, maybe to 0,1.

I think that price cannot go up until this case i open. It does not make sense: the whole Ripple/xrp world is put in question and price should go up?

Based on what? 

image.png.5dda01d2dbfd2812202f0e6e4fbb3e19.png

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

I agree with you that the SEC don't care about us, but neither do Chris Larson or Brad Garlingouse.  They are all feathering their nests.  We were the idiots propping up the XRP price.  We were the purists.  We were the believers in the Internet of Value more than upper mangement of Ripple.  They didn't have to believe it in it.  They had bigger and more immediate profits that turned their heads enough to take their eye off the ball: it's nearly 2021 and ODL (xRapid launched on 1st October 2018) is next to nothing in terms of volume. No excuses there. "Lack of regularity clarity" is a nonsense excuse when they can focus on corridors outside the US. There isn't the incentive to make it work when you've got bigger profits by easier means.

Please don't get me wrong, I don't give a shit about the IOV, ODL or any other long term projects.

I am here to earn high risk high reward money. We are not "investing" here for the short term, we are gambling.

I'm all about betting in the bull market on an asset that looks trustworthy to the "dumb money", that is listed on many exchanges, that can be seen relatively quickly due to its placement in the market, and that has a great opportunity for large percentage gains due to its low single value.

XRP had all of that and now we would have just had to wait a few more months for the BTC bull market to overheat and thousands of "investors" trying to make quick money in altcoins.

But if XRP was not available to the entire US market at this stage, it would be a disaster.

The SEC case is currently destroying the momentum and I pray to God that when the market really heats up XRP will get its share of the dumb money.

Because if BTC enters the bear market, then it doesn't give a shit if XRP is a security or not, the price will be dragged down no matter how great the news is.

We need calm around XRP when it gets wild in the market, otherwise we have all wasted several years here

 

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43 minutes ago, Hopium said:

shocking to see @2ndtimearound is another @Julian_Williams , interesting times seeing many xrp supporters convert, cant wait to see what is the ultimate outcome of the case and what will be the fate for both supporters and converters

i like your name, i will call myself HopiumFrequent then

I de-risked by selling 40% and am currently using the money to reinvesting in a wider crypto portfolio (before I was content to be 100% XRP).  Main reason for selling is not that I think XRP is a security, but that behind the scenes Brad and Chris are behaving like Jed.  I had too much to lose and i know longer see them as on my team, so I de-risked

I think down the line a lot of good will come from this intervention by SEC.  Hopefully there will be more clarity and a shake up, and the management of the XRPL will be more independent from Ripple Labs.  Whilst this is happening XRP's positioning in the up-coming alt season has been damaged.  Before this happened I had determined to hold all my XRP until it hit $5-10 which seemed a certain outcome, now I think my prediction much less certain.

 

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27 minutes ago, Hopium said:

as much as we want to believe US is only just 1 country, it isnt.

sure, ripple can go after many corridors outside of US, but US alone can fast track its plan exponentially if given the green light, after all US is the super nation

if US is not important as many are touting, ripple would have left US without making a fuss and carry on with their vision and mission, but they insist to stay and beg, why???

it's like getting entities outside US to sign up is equivalent to getting 0.01% in progress per successful attempt (could be around 5 to 10% by now after all these years), and getting a US green light is equivalent to instant progress to 80%, you get me?

as US is a super nation, countries tend to look up to it for examples, if US set a favorable precedent for ripple/xrp, then other country can easily follow suit and exponentially ease out the process of getting deals done, sign up for ripplenet, etc. In contrast now, for every successful deal, ripple has to convince before reaching the deal, instead of the default response of "oh US already given the green light, we dont need to discuss further, lets go", and sign as many as they want to onboard everyone

Then you have to believe the SEC ultimately control Ripple's future.  I think that's not the case though, if Ripple were more earnest.  I think Ripple could have relocated to another country 3 years ago as a belt-and-braces measure to ensure their HQ country had cleared XRP as a non-security, and then built out corridors from outside the US; JPY/THB as a great example (should have worked on that longer ago than they did).  Instead, Ripple made a big deal about the SEC's lack of clarity while not relocating in 3 years.  In those 3 years, the vast majority of money they made was from XRP sales.  It's becoming a no-brainer.  Chris Larsen sold 1.7 billion XRP, Brad Garlinghouse 321 million XRP....not to institutions, to us.  Oh, they did sell other XRP to institutions, but they were being dumped on the market too! After those 3 long years, the result is $1M per day ODL traffic which is like nothing more than a leaky tap.  Where is the "household name" partnerships? These are 3 years and counting...nothing. 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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16 minutes ago, pichkaro said:

But i still cant understand all the hype about usa people not being able to trade xrp... Isnt Kraken having license to trade securities? They dont even need to delist it and furthermore they are americans... bitstamp does not have this license and in addition is european so its all clear. 

I may be wrong, but from what I have read...

If XRP is a Digital Asset Security, you need to be an ACCREDITED investor to trade it. Being an accredited investor is hard, it represents maybe 1-5% of the total population. Even if Kraken/Bitstamp have the licence to trade XRP, people (except for a minority) will not be authorized to trade XRP. This means exchanges need to enforce additional checks, to allow like 1% of their customers to trade. Bitstamp, and I assume many others, are not going to pay the cost of these new administrative work to get commissions on 1% of the volume they have done so far. It's just not financially viable to them. Subsequently, they will just stop XRP trading in the US. Bitstamp was the first, I expect Coinbase, Kraken and every other to do the same as early as next week.

My belief is that most people don't understand this. They think "oh Kraken can trade, it will be fine", but really it is not. The penny hasn't dropped yet, the situation not completely priced in and I expect XRP to crash hard, again, very soon.

When that happens, I'll buy. :) I may be waiting forever, we'll see.

Edited by Troote
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16 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I de-risked by selling 40% and am currently using the money to reinvesting in a wider crypto portfolio (before I was content to be 100% XRP).  Main reason for selling is not that I think XRP is a security, but that behind the scenes Brad and Chris are behaving like Jed.  I had too much to lose and i know longer see them as on my team, so I de-risked

I think down the line a lot of good will come from this intervention by SEC.  Hopefully there will be more clarity and a shake up, and the management of the XRPL will be more independent from Ripple Labs.  Whilst this is happening XRP's positioning in the up-coming alt season has been damaged.  Before this happened I had determined to hold all my XRP until it hit $5-10 which seemed a certain outcome, now I think my prediction much less certain.

Ripple could reinvent itself if Brad and Chris leave.  I don't see how they can stay, though Larsen will be difficult to remove.  Get rid of the escrow, or redistribute it to XRP holders (in a commensurate way)...that would work.  I think retail HODLers need rewarding after all the shit they've been through and the support they've given to the price.  The escrow is becoming a liability right now...clearly upper management would want the fantasy scenario of selling it for years and years, but it's not going to happen. 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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4 minutes ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Ripple could reinvent itself if Brad and Chris leave.  I don't see how they can stay, though Larsen will be difficult to remove.  Get rid of the escrow, or redistribute it to XRP holders (in a commensurate way)...that would work.  I think retail HODLers need rewarding after all the shit they've been through and the support they've given to the price.  The escrow is becoming a liability right now...clearly upper management would want the fantasy scenario of selling it for years and years, but it's not going to happen. 

There is a problem that Garlinghouse and Larsen might become two more Jed's trying to off-load their huge unearned stakes and drain liquidity out of the XRPL.  Their stakes need to be put into custody.

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Just now, Julian_Williams said:

There is a problem that Garlinghouse and Larsen might become two more Jed's trying to off-load their huge unearned stakes and drain liquidity out of the XRPL.  Their stakes need to be put into custody.

Until the lawsuit is concluded, I don't think they'll be allowed to sell. Or are they? Jed has stopped (https://jed.tequ.dev/), I would assume they have stopped too.

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