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Charting the course of XRP


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I was participating undercover :).  The trolls became too overwhelming while XRP was in the dumps, I figure its safe to come out again.

These threads are being derailed by childish banter, could you please keep things on topic and move your chit chat elsewhere. The forum is becoming less interesting for many of us.

I really don’t understand why the forum has been getting so heated lately when we are doing SO WELL after YEARS of being in the gutter. You’d think everybody would be saying hello, good morning, how a

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1 hour ago, JJJ2 said:

Yea, the alternative scenario is exactly what demonstrates that TA is nothing more than a blind fortune teller.

If it breaks level 1 than we reach price A ,but is it does not, then we fall to price B.

But the question is: does it brake level 1 or not?

:D

I think TA helps understand the areas where buyers/sellers have set their past orders and the value of these orders. If lots of people bought at $100 and are in the red, you know that they will likely sell when they get back to $100 to avoid losses. It can help help determine where people are likely to close their trades. TA helps find liquidity, identify support and resistance levels.

That's all there is to it. People who have enough money in the game can manipulate the market and will use this in-depth knowledge of the order book to screw everyone. Others see the same data but can't bend the market to their will.. I don't see TA as a predictive tool and it doesn't tell the masses whether the market goes up or down. It does tell the whales what to do for the market to go their way.

Edited by Troote
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58 minutes ago, Master_of_Brain said:

Sure, anything is possible, particularly with XRP.  I am basing the $1.05 target off of the size of the move that preceded the bear flag, but it could certainly run more.  Will depend largely on BTC, as always.  But this is as clean a set up, as obvious a bull flag, as you are likely to get.

So we are going down then? :(

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2 hours ago, jbjnr said:

I'm not very familiar with any charting techniques at all (I follow the XRP and BTC trading threads out of curiosity as it's clear to me that the market is driven by the collective actions of many speculative traders, all using similar TA methods). The metrics you linked to are interesting, as they are actually derived from real data about the underlying activity on the blockchain - what's not obvious to me is whether they predict that the cart is being pulled by a horse, or whether the horse is pulling a cart. I've been dabbling with some code to do market making and arbitrage, but I don't do any TA in a predictive sense (at least not yet).

Exactly! On-chain data seems to provide various indicators of whether or not price may have room to go. Candidly, I think it shows price movement in lock step with on-chain metrics so it's more of a in the moment analysis based on a specific point in time rather than an actual forecaster. For example, looking at the MVRV metric, while it doesn't tell us when price will move (up or down) it does provide an indication of whether the price has room to move, whether it be up or down, based on historical levels of said metric. 

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While we're discussing TA, I think it also provides a lot of value during market moves.  There isn't much smart to say when a market is chopping sideways but, when there is a big move, TA can sometimes help to determine "normal and healthy" from something unsustainable or worrying.  Helps to control emotions as well, if employed correctly.

I have come to the conclusion that there is most definitely value to TA but it definitely has its limitations and no one... NO ONE... knows the future.  

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3 hours ago, Troote said:

Could you share the same ratios for BTC? I am struggling to understand the graphs.

Yessir. See the chart below for the MVRV ratio for BTC going back to 2013. The MVRV and associated price for the tops are as follow: Nov 17, 2013 the price of BTC peaked at ~$1,151 and had an MVRV of 418.7% (4.18x). On Dec 13, 2017 the price of BTC peaked at ~$16,624 (based on the below chart data) and had an MVRV of 328.65% (or 3.28x). As of Dec 9, 2020 the price of BTC hit ~$18,333 and had an MVRV of 150.09% (or 1.5x). Mind you, on June 19, 2019 the price of BTC was ~$13,017 while the MVRV ratio was 131.56% (or 1.31x). Given that the MVRV was similar in 2019 to where it is now, that could indicate we've had an influx of new buyers at higher prices, which has kept down the returns for BTC holders, on average. As a side note, you can see the Mean Dollar Invested Age metric drop in lock step with major price increases (and vice versa). Hope this is helpful!

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33 minutes ago, Master_of_Brain said:

Sorry, I typed "bear" flag when I meant "bull" flag.  Corrected.

I don't know which way we are going, but if we break up it will be significant.  I will add to my position if I'm lucky enough to catch it happen if and when it does.

I was being sarcastic. If it's the perfect textbook bull flag, then it would be too obvious to go up! Surely whales won't allow it.

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When i was a lurker, i saw @Julian_Williams saying he's been looking at the below metrics from ripple, ever since that day i see it daily and look out for unusual pattern

here we are, ever since bull run started, the Trade volume and Ledger volume been 10 digits (excluding decimals), now i checked and the Ledger volume is monstrous (normally Trade volume higher than Ledger volume), it's so tempting to sniff some but i'll continue abstinence, till we parabolic pass $1

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Edited by Hopium
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Daily dose of Avocado booze

The highest bump since the ATH was at 58, which means 58% of ATH, ever since the consolidation happened (16 days as of now), can be seen interest has dropped, goes to show how fickle human emotions are, people never learn, FOMO when price high, look down upon it when it's not going up, buy high sell low.

Looking at the recent big bump, it surpasses all other small bumps near the ATH and after the ATH, if anything, it indicates the next ATH is going to surpass the last ATH in a big way, making the previous ATH just a bump.

Going thru rehab put me in a higher emotional state, wont sell till i see a new ATH, the ups and downs not beyond ATH doesnt concern me, the Hopium Happy Toad.
Based on my velocity prediction, mass of Sun 1.9891 × 1030 kilograms, divide by Pi 3.141592653589793, add some flare and spark, you'll get $10 as ATH.

image.thumb.png.efd16f3b040d11be90bfc2c59ed8c1ad.png

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25 minutes ago, Hopium said:

 

image.thumb.png.efd16f3b040d11be90bfc2c59ed8c1ad.png
 


I think you might be getting misled a bit by a name change.

Basing it on searches for “XRP” you are missing the fact that it mainly was called Ripple back then.  Putting those two and the generic “crypto” in gives a more sedate but certainly significant view.  The scale is clearer that way.


You are correct though that the current one beats any since ATH.

 

 

Edited by BillyOckham
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1 hour ago, Hopium said:

anyone here is NY resident? if yes the exchanges are not entertaining NY people for the airdrop, basically if you're in NY you're kinda "insert @Mr_Rippling 's avatar".

i can offer emotional consultation service for free if you need

Why is New York so stupid when it comes to digital assets? Who in the New York government is doing that?

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