Charting the course of XRP

[Troote 1,309]

55 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think Troote's link above was correct; we have to hit base resistance at .45 .50 and then we can launch to .90 or more.  BTC has to do something similar.  Some are saying the next bounce takes us well over 1 dollar.

That's half the narrative. The video also presented an alternative scenario in which yesterday's dip was "it", that it is a bear trap towards people who believe we are on our way to 14k-16k. And that we are going up from here.

The bottom line of the video is that there is a resistance levels at $0.56-$0.58 XRP and $18.6k - $18.8k BTC. Either we get rejected and we go back down a bunch (which seems to be the case, although the rejection is not really convincing) before we go up, or we go up very soon.

To see what will actually happen, we still need my mighty crystal ball... 10k XRP price tag has not changed!

Edited December 10, 2020 by Troote

[Hopium 1,085]

50 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think Troote's link above was correct; we have to hit base resistance at .45 .50 and then we can launch to .90 or more.  BTC has to do something similar.  Some are saying the next bounce takes us well over 1 dollar.

I have been in the green since hitting .39, so it is all positive for me now.  I expect there are quite a few investors with much higher DCAs waiting for green.  Don't worry, these are the normal erratic fluctuations of a bull market in crypto and it seems likely we are now on our way up.

@Hopium, Troote spread rumours he had eaten you.  

we're pretty much on the same boat, green since 3x cents, a well earned reward after 3 years of long winter of red, if someone says we're lucky to earn it, they dont know what they're talking about.

next leg up obviously is past $1, the current leg max took us close to 8x cents region already

any link or pic to the rumor? i want something concrete like the BoA partnership

[Hopium 1,085]

after rehab, i keep on reviewing myself, i was too harsh on baka, i wish to give him a sincere apology and cleanse our bitter memories

someone please reach out to him on this

i even changed to a new avatar to symbolize im done rehabing

[Julian_Williams 14,328]

1 hour ago, Hopium said:

after rehab, i keep on reviewing myself, i was too harsh on baka, i wish to give him a sincere apology and cleanse our bitter memories

someone please reach out to him on this

i even changed to a new avatar to symbolize im done rehabing

yes at time it felt like bullying, but Baka is strong enough to take it.  Your jokes are often funny and your analysis useful.

[Baka 2,389]

3 hours ago, Hopium said:

after rehab, i keep on reviewing myself, i was too harsh on baka, i wish to give him a sincere apology and cleanse our bitter memories

someone please reach out to him on this

i even changed to a new avatar to symbolize im done rehabing

I do accept it , I unbanned you 

Let's keep positivity here

[Troote 1,309]

My crystal ball tells me to put my seatbelt on. If I had money on the side line, I would be FOMOing hard right now.

[Celsiunaire 37]

1 hour ago, Baka said:

I do accept it , I unbanned you 

Let's keep positivity here

[Mpolnet 575]

7 hours ago, Dario_o said:

Basically you're saying there's still room for a price increase very soon?

Based on where the MVRV ratio peaked in the last cycle I would say we have a lot of room to run still. In 2017 we went from an XRP price of <$0.01 to ~$0.39, at which point the MVRV peaked at 1864.07% before dropping to 474.88% (which indicates holders had an 18x average profit before it dropped to 4x+ in profit on average) before finally going back up to 789.22% where price peaked at ~$3.11.

As of yesterday the MVRV was at 82.94% with a quoted XRP price of ~$0.57. This tells us that on average current holders have a ~83% on their position. Past data doesn't indicate future performance but based on these metrics there's a good argument to be made that we'll exceed prior ATH. That's my opinion based solely on this on-chain data metric. 

Does this cycle repeat last cycle? Who knows but if it does that would mean that the MVRV ratio skyrockets, drops, then jumps again before plummeting and entering the bear cycle. 

[Troote 1,309]

1 hour ago, Mpolnet said:

Based on where the MVRV ratio peaked in the last cycle I would say we have a lot of room to run still. In 2017 we went from an XRP price of <$0.01 to ~$0.39, at which point the MVRV peaked at 1864.07% before dropping to 474.88% (which indicates holders had an 18x average profit before it dropped to 4x+ in profit on average) before finally going back up to 789.22% where price peaked at ~$3.11.

As of yesterday the MVRV was at 82.94% with a quoted XRP price of ~$0.57. This tells us that on average current holders have a ~83% on their position. Past data doesn't indicate future performance but based on these metrics there's a good argument to be made that we'll exceed prior ATH. That's my opinion based solely on this on-chain data metric. 

Does this cycle repeat last cycle? Who knows but if it does that would mean that the MVRV ratio skyrockets, drops, then jumps again before plummeting and entering the bear cycle. 

Could you share the same ratios for BTC? I am struggling to understand the graphs.

[jbjnr 2,310]

20 hours ago, Mpolnet said:

@jbjnr @JASCoder - are you guys familiar with Santiment and their methodology for calculating various metrics? I'd be happy to create and share charts with metrics you guys think may be applicable to better understanding where we are in the cycle, from a price standpoint.

I'm not very familiar with any charting techniques at all (I follow the XRP and BTC trading threads out of curiosity as it's clear to me that the market is driven by the collective actions of many speculative traders, all using similar TA methods). The metrics you linked to are interesting, as they are actually derived from real data about the underlying activity on the blockchain - what's not obvious to me is whether they predict that the cart is being pulled by a horse, or whether the horse is pulling a cart. I've been dabbling with some code to do market making and arbitrage, but I don't do any TA in a predictive sense (at least not yet).

[JJJ2 444]

3 hours ago, Mpolnet said:

Based on where the MVRV ratio peaked in the last cycle I would say we have a lot of room to run still. In 2017 we went from an XRP price of <$0.01 to ~$0.39, at which point the MVRV peaked at 1864.07% before dropping to 474.88% (which indicates holders had an 18x average profit before it dropped to 4x+ in profit on average) before finally going back up to 789.22% where price peaked at ~$3.11.

As of yesterday the MVRV was at 82.94% with a quoted XRP price of ~$0.57. This tells us that on average current holders have a ~83% on their position. Past data doesn't indicate future performance but based on these metrics there's a good argument to be made that we'll exceed prior ATH. That's my opinion based solely on this on-chain data metric. 

Does this cycle repeat last cycle? Who knows but if it does that would mean that the MVRV ratio skyrockets, drops, then jumps again before plummeting and entering the bear cycle. 

A similar thing is shown by RSI in BTC/USD chart (monthly TF):

in 2013 BTC jumps from 7$ to 280$ and RSI reaches 96-97 (which is an unbelievable value)

2014: from 240$ to 1246 and again RSI 96-97

2017: from 617$ to 19000$ and again RSI 96-97

It is based on that that I can see BTC  reaching 80k-100k (now we have RSI = 70)

[JJJ2 444]

10 hours ago, Troote said:

That's half the narrative. The video also presented an alternative scenario in which yesterday's dip was "it", that it is a bear trap towards people who believe we are on our way to 14k-16k. And that we are going up from here.

Yea, the alternative scenario is exactly what demonstrates that TA is nothing more than a blind fortune teller.

If it breaks level 1 than we reach price A ,but is it does not, then we fall to price B.

 

But the question is: does it brake level 1 or not?

[Molten 1,076]

A lot of times, TA can be next to useless in terms of predicting near term price action.  Sometimes, though, there is a pattern that you can trade with high confidence.

This is one of those times.  IF (when) XRP breaks this flag, it will result in a significant move upwards, possibly as high as a $0.45 cent move (so above $1.00).

[Neurotoxin 626]

1 minute ago, Master_of_Brain said:

A lot of times, TA can be next to useless in terms of predicting near term price action.  Sometimes, though, there is a pattern that you can trade with high confidence.

This is one of those times.  IF (when) XRP breaks this flag, it will result in a significant move upwards, possibly as high as a $0.45 cent move (so above $1.00).

And if you’re calling for a dollar, I’m gonna speculate and say it’d go even higher off of FOMO alone, at least for a little period of time. 

[Molten 1,076]

1 hour ago, Neurotoxin said:

And if you’re calling for a dollar, I’m gonna speculate and say it’d go even higher off of FOMO alone, at least for a little period of time. 

Sure, anything is possible, particularly with XRP.  I am basing the $1.05 target off of the size of the move that preceded the bull flag, but it could certainly run more.  Will depend largely on BTC, as always.  But this is as clean a set up, as obvious a bull flag, as you are likely to get.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Master_of_Brain