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Charting the course of XRP


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1 minute ago, Troote said:

And that, my friend, is why I have no trust in your judgement. You are playing an instrumental (social) role in the community, and for that I like you, but your beliefs and biases are stopping you from being pragmatic. You may be very right, but you may also be very wrong and instead of acknowledging that, you choose to hide behind your faith.

what? he's being pragmatic in determining his choices (belief is a poor choice of word here)...he may end being proven wrong or right, but his point was that he's done the work to determine his choices...

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15 minutes ago, Troote said:

And that, my friend, is why I have no trust in your judgement. You are playing an instrumental (social) role in the community, and for that I like you, but your beliefs and biases are stopping you from being pragmatic. You may be very right, but you may also be very wrong and instead of acknowledging that, you choose to hide behind your faith.

I dont. I base my decisions on my research. That is what smart people do. I never claim to be right or that my viewpoint is the only way, that is what you make of it. Faith has nothing to do with it, knowledge and being able to understand market structures/cycles/bubbles does. Does that mean that my research and understanding is the correct one? No of course not, but if I am not ready to stand by what I think is going to happen, why even bother investing at all?

I dont have to be neutral, I simply share what is most likely in my eyes and thusfar my expectations have mostly come true up to this point. Doesn’t mean they always will and that is why a good strategy must be in place for multiple scenario’s. Take it or leave it.

Edited by Plikk
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34 minutes ago, Troote said:

I may have a fish brain but I don't bite that easy in your rhetoric. For all we know this was a double top with BTC, the party is already over and it is down from here

You may be right, but why did you invest? It has always been a high risk high reward investment. It is still high risk. I feel confident with my investment because I am at peace with the risk, yet hopeful for the reward. It feels cycles are repeating, but they may not. It is very rare that you get great reward without feeling its all going to crash at some (even multiple )  points. If no one had doubts,  you would already be invested too late.

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4 minutes ago, madToo said:

You may be right, but why did you invest? It has always been a high risk high reward investment. It is still high risk. I feel confident with my investment because I am at peace with the risk, yet hopeful for the reward. It feels cycles are repeating, but they may not. It is very rare that you get great reward without feeling its all going to crash at some (even multiple )  points. If no one had doubts,  you would already be invested too late.

I did not invest. I am gambling. Big difference.

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1 hour ago, Troote said:

I may have a fish brain but I don't bite that easy in your rhetoric. For all we know this was a double top with BTC, the party is already over and it is down from here. And the thing is - that line of thoughts is just as valid as yours. We are not architects of the future here. We build nothing, we develop nothing, we don't manufacture the market like whales do. We are parasites, blind passengers, doing a bit of divination with TA and trying to make sense of madness. In reality, none of us has the faintest clue.

You don't know where the price is going. I don't. It might go up, it might go down. Pretending otherwise is lying to people here and, more importantly, yourself. I just hope it goes up and that I will sell before losing all my gains, because eventually this will crash back down again at some point unless real utility kicks in.

They say that goldfish live in the present with memories in a timescale of a few seconds at a time.  To grow up to be a whale you have to be bolder and more resilient than that, and focus out from the immediate present, and plan your strategies accordingly.  

I can give you many reasons for expecting digital money, and especially cross border payments using digital assets/currencies taking off, and why XRP will be part of this revolution.  I can also show you patterns from previous cycle of speculative crypto investments etc etc.

You are quite correct, no one can predict the immediate future, but we can take a good stab at predicting the wider sweep of things, and place our investments in this context. 

Edited by Julian_Williams
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18 minutes ago, Troote said:

I did not invest. I am gambling. Big difference.

The difference between investing and gambling is knowledge. Knowledge is used to minimise the risk and maximise the return. What you put money into does not define if it is a gamble,  the knowledge of what you put money into defines it.

Having knowledge does not remove the risk. But it does help you evaluate if that risk is worth the potential reward.

For example putting money into stocks is not without risk, but is considered investing, even when the person 'investing' has no idea about that stock. But in fact this is not investing but gambling when you blindly put money in.to stock.

Edited by madToo
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16 minutes ago, madToo said:

You may be right, but why did you invest? It has always been a high risk high reward investment. It is still high risk. I feel confident with my investment because I am at peace with the risk, yet hopeful for the reward. It feels cycles are repeating, but they may not. It is very rare that you get great reward without feeling its all going to crash at some (even multiple )  points. If no one had doubts,  you would already be invested too late.

I never saw my investment in XRP as high risk, some risk of course, but it never felt to me a high risk investment.   At times I have been 75% down and I bought more to lower my DCA, because I have always felt confident the consolidation would end with a rise like we experienced yesterday.   I always thought there was a small risk I was wrong, but it happened, which was what I expected to happen.   My opinion is that this rise is the beginning, it may collapse first, but eventaully it will play out with a big rise.  I have little opinion about how high - 3 dollars, 10 dollars or 50 dollars. 

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12 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

never saw my investment in XRP as high risk

Your knowledge and evaluation of XRP reduces the risk from your perspective which many others do not do. But even then this investment is riskier than what is considered for traditional investments. Although recent events are trying very hard to prove that last sentence wrong :)

I'll also add i have added through the bear market just like you. Because like you I have evaluated the return to be worth the risk.

Edited by madToo
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4 minutes ago, madToo said:

Your knowledge and evaluation of XRP reduces the risk from your perspective which many others do not do. But even then this investment is riskier than what is considered for traditional investments. Although recent events are trying very hard to prove that last sentence wrong :)

actually I disagree, although it is unfashionable to characterise crypto as low risk, I see it that way (personal opinion which is why I put all my personal savings are in xrp, I transferrred out of XTZ into XRP yesterday - but it is money I can afford to lose)

Edited by Julian_Williams
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19 minutes ago, madToo said:

The difference between investing and gambling is knowledge. Knowledge is used to minimise the risk and maximise the return. What you put money into does not define if it is a gamble,  the knowledge of what you put money into defines it.

Having knowledge does not remove the risk. But it does help you evaluate if that risk is worth the potential reward. For example putting money into stocks is not without risk, but is considered investing, even when the person 'investing' has no idea about that stock.

I disagree with your definition. I am very knowledgeable about XRP. Investment means using money to produce something. Companies (and stocks) create and sell products, they create tangible value. They create jobs. They advance science and technology. If you are investing in XRP, who are you paying to make your money work? Tell me who you are investing on. Ripple? They are buying, no longer getting funding through XRP. You are not paying Ripple. Who, just tell me who you invest in and what they do with your money, with what promise to make it grow on your behalf. Answer that question and I will accept that I am wrong and you are an investor.

As of right now, cryptos have no value. They create nothing. The use case is not clear, it is being tested by many companies who are struggling to make ot stick for all the reasons we know of, such as regulations. The only reason people buy crypto is because they hope there will be a *concrete* use case in the future. They hope their XRP's price will increase. That they will become rich. Is that investing? It is not. Is that a use case? Certainly not. How many of you are buying XRP because you actually want to use it to pay a family member who lives in another country? Receive your salary? Pay your bills? Or better still, create a business that uses the ledger? How many of you are active developers on the XRP ledger. I am not. I have been around long enough to know you lot are not. Almost none of us are. 

BTC is a downright scam. XRP has little traction today in real life in terms of use case. Ripple is hitting many brick walls. A few successes, yes, and hopefully many more to come. It might well succeed. Flare will help. I hope it does.

The difference between you and me is that I acknowledge that cryptocurrencies have no tangible value today. The only value is the dream (which we all have) it will pay for our retirement. Just like lottery tickets. We are betting it will have a value tomorrow.

I am not investing. I am gambling. And I think you are too.

Edited by Troote
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16 minutes ago, Troote said:

I disagree with your definition. I am very knowledgeable about XRP. Investment means using money to produce something. Companies (and stocks) create and sell products, they create tangible value. They create jobs. They advance science and technology. If you are investing in XRP, who are you paying to make your money work? Tell me who you are investing on. Ripple? They are buying, no longer getting funding through XRP. You are not paying Ripple. Who, just tell me who you invest in and what they do with your money, with what promise to make it grow on your behalf. Answer that question and I will accept that I am wrong and you are an investor.

As of right now, cryptos have no value. They create nothing. The use case is not clear, it is being tested by many companies who are struggling to make ot stick for all the reasons we know of, such as regulations. The only reason people buy crypto is because they hope there will be a *concrete* use case in the future. They hope their XRP's price will increase. That they will become rich. Is that investing? It is not. Is that a use case? Certainly not. How many of you are buying XRP because you actually want to use it to pay a family member who lives in another country? Receive your salary? Pay your bills? Or better still, create a business that uses the ledger? How many of you are active developers on the XRP ledger. I am not. I have been around long enough to know you lot are not. Almost none of us are. 

BTC is a downright scam. XRP has little traction today in real life in terms of use case. Ripple is hitting many brick walls. A few successes, yes, and hopefully many more to come. It might well succeed. Flare will help. I hope it does.

The difference between you and me is that I acknowledge that cryptocurrencies have no tangible value today. The only value is the dream (which we all have) it will pay for our retirement. Just like lottery tickets. We are betting it will have a value tomorrow.

I am not investing. I am gambling. And I think you are too.

Now you are the one pushing your definition of investing and crypto as the one truth. Talk about pot blaming the kettle ;) 
 

But I do agree with some points you make, albeit in a lesser degree. But I dont think it is as black and white as you put it. This is not 2016 anymore, there has been tangible and real progress being made by many projects, although probably only 5% of projects out there will actually be deployed or utilized.

I truly believe that as long aa we see these bubble structures repeat, the real utility value of a crypto project doesnt matter that much(but is important for future potential and news driven pumps). Hype and typical human behaviour such as greed and fear of missing out will flourish in this market structure for now. 

Edited by Plikk
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20 minutes ago, Troote said:

disagree with your definition

You have every right to disagree. And my example of stocks is is less aligned to my argument than commodities. Although there are worthless stocks that do not make / do anything as well.

I also appreciate that a lot of of commodities are market (supply and demand) driven and fit within your definition. But a others are also highly manipulated and / or have intrinsic value just because people have decided they do.

This latter category is what I put all digital assets in.

Ideologically I mostly agree with you. But the line between investing and gambling is very grey. I believe my investment is in that grey zone. But I can tell you I am fully versed re what xrp is, what Ripple will and won't do for it. And what market cycles are currently influencing it. I thetefore have the knowledge to evaluate if I should have money in this and what the risk / benefits are. That to me makes it investing. Some one who has heard xrp can make them rich and therefore puts money in is gambling.

No right or wrong between your position and mine. Just good debate and perspective. So thank you.

Edited by madToo
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