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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Trentsteel said:

😂😂 you just hate TA, but yet visit 2 TA threads and yet I wonder why you don’t give Eric as much crap.

Just another bitter heavy bag holder or you sold at a loss

Salute chump 

Eric's generally been much better than Molten in his analysis actually. I've been doing pretty well by swing trading during this time and managed to lower my average coin cost without spending any extra money. You can go live in your fairy butterfly land where everything about XRP is always positive and happy, that's not reality and not what I come to this forum for. You seem to not mind when people attack so called FUDDers(which usually ends up being true) but have a problem when people say optimistic projection aren't realistic. I'm not talking about TA but in general. In other words, you are not objective at all and cannot be taken seriously.

And hell, I was just responding to someone else's Criticism about Molten and then Caesar decided to start his whole debate about whether saying bad TA is bad was appropriate or not.

Edited by Archbob

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Archbob said:

Eric's generally been much better than Molten in his analysis actually. I've been doing pretty well by swing trading during this time and managed to lower my average coin cost without spending any extra money. You can go live in your fairy butterfly land where everything about XRP is always positive and happy, that's not reality and not what I come to this forum for. You seem to not mind when people attack FUD(which usually ends up being true) but have a problem when people say optimistic projects aren't realistic. I'm not talking about TA but in general. In other words, you are not objective at all and cannot be taken seriously.

Butterfly land? You know Jack shit about and I either you but I ain’t bought XRP in a long time, my bags are full in that number, I don’t champion anything, then again I don’t come an XRP chat forum to shit all over it...... but we don’t want an echo chamber of hopium and I’ll always read objectively into how things may not work out as planned....... your not one of them, just bitter, twisted on your own lack of success with XRP

i would wish you luck for your futures endeavours but I’ll be lying and can only hope we don’t make the same decisions as me 😬😂 

goodbye chump 

Edited by Trentsteel

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Posted (edited)

Most of my crypto isn't even XRP, its stupid to not diversify, so your comment about lack of success with XRP is flat out wrong about me. And as for your posts, based on past history, it sure seems like you generally want a echo chamber of hopium.

Me and a few others have been saying that XRP's been on a downward trend for a long time without changing our opinion very much, and guess what? We have been right. Things have worked exactly as we have planned, just not how you planned. Those of us who switching to swing trading the last year or so have done a whole lot better than those who kept holding.

If you've have been contradicting us, then you have been wrong because we've been in a long downward spiral for more than 2 years, which is longer than I've been at this forum.

Chumps calling other people Chump, sheesh.

Edited by Archbob

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I, for one, love this part of the forum.

As a long-time lurker and not a trader, at the very least topics like these provide me with distractions and pointers to what might happen. The fact that @Molten, @Eric123 and the likes provide their insights for free is something that I value a lot, so thank you all for that.

I personally am still very bullish on XRP and crypto in general, but that is not based on anything other than gut feeling.

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On 3/23/2020 at 4:44 AM, Archbob said:

Most of my crypto isn't even XRP, its stupid to not diversify, so your comment about lack of success with XRP is flat out wrong about me. And as for your posts, based on past history, it sure seems like you generally want a echo chamber of hopium.

Me and a few others have been saying that XRP's been on a downward trend for a long time without changing our opinion very much, and guess what? We have been right. Things have worked exactly as we have planned, just not how you planned. Those of us who switching to swing trading the last year or so have done a whole lot better than those who kept holding.

If you've have been contradicting us, then you have been wrong because we've been in a long downward spiral for more than 2 years, which is longer than I've been at this forum.

Chumps calling other people Chump, sheesh.

I am moving to swing trading. It looks like XRP will take its sweet time. Utility that will affect the price is a long way off. There are others in the market with utility. I missed BNB, chain link. etc. I will still have my long term stack intact. No more pumping money into xrp directly for while.

Btw, regarding XRP.. Forte Gaming is doing what Ripple is doing with Cross border. They have built a blockchain gaming platform and singing up major game studios. 

At some point in the next few years all this is going to converge and hopefully if some of us are alive and kicking post covid we will celebrate.

We should have another thread discussing other cryptos for swing trading.

Edited by strikerjax

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2 hours ago, strikerjax said:

We should have another thread discussing other cryptos for swing trading.

Yes I have always thought swing trading is the way to go with crypto.  But the tax implications stopped me pursuing it, so I just hold and buy occasionally with very small amounts of spare funds.

But if you can identify two crypto’s you are happy to be stuck with,  then you can essentially risk free,  build the stack.  I say risk free,  but that’s ignoring the existential risk of each of the two crypto’s.  Either one or both could be worth nothing in the long run.  But if you can ignore that risk...  then there are no others.

Say you trust BTC and XRP to survive and be worth something in future.  Take say 20% of your XRP and buy BTC with them.  Next sell BTC to buy XRP when the trade will result in 5% more XRP (edit:  after tax) than you had last round.  Do the reverse sale when selling this newly enlarged XRP pile will result in 5% more BTC than the previous round.  
 

No matter what happens you always will end up with more of one or the other than you started with.  The trades may not happen for weeks though.  But every trade is a step up in size.  If they both fluctuate without one getting away from the other then you will keep profitably trading to grow the stack.  
 

At some point you will notice that one has moved permanently (or a crypto version of permanently) up and away from the other with you on the downhill side.  Still bigger than you started with in that coin,  but no longer able to trade back. Ok that’s fine...  consider that tranche over with and just put it in long term hold status.  Start again with a new 20% trade bag.  Rinse and repeat.

I’ve done it in simulation and it’s always been a good result...  if there are any issues I haven’t thought of in this I would love to hear about them.  Apologies for the long post.

 

 

 

Edited by Dogowner5
Forgot to say ‘after tax’

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4 hours ago, strikerjax said:

We should have another thread discussing other cryptos for swing trading.

 

1 hour ago, Dogowner5 said:

(edit:  after tax)

Exactly remember taxes.

  Swing trading can be a good way to increase your stack.  But Big Warning if crypto trades are taxable in your country  - always remember to convert to your local currency and pay the tax.  You don't want to end up in the situation where you increased your stack but the tax gains are higher than your entire portfolio (it happened to traders in 2017).

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/11/college-student-asks-did-i-ruin-my-life-by-trading-crypto-after-receiving-400000-tax-bill/

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3 hours ago, Dogowner5 said:

Yes I have always thought swing trading is the way to go with crypto.  But the tax implications stopped me pursuing it, so I just hold and buy occasionally with very small amounts of spare funds.

But if you can identify two crypto’s you are happy to be stuck with,  then you can essentially risk free,  build the stack.  I say risk free,  but that’s ignoring the existential risk of each of the two crypto’s.  Either one or both could be worth nothing in the long run.  But if you can ignore that risk...  then there are no others.

Say you trust BTC and XRP to survive and be worth something in future.  Take say 20% of your XRP and buy BTC with them.  Next sell BTC to buy XRP when the trade will result in 5% more XRP (edit:  after tax) than you had last round.  Do the reverse sale when selling this newly enlarged XRP pile will result in 5% more BTC than the previous round.  
 

No matter what happens you always will end up with more of one or the other than you started with.  The trades may not happen for weeks though.  But every trade is a step up in size.  If they both fluctuate without one getting away from the other then you will keep profitably trading to grow the stack.  
 

At some point you will notice that one has moved permanently (or a crypto version of permanently) up and away from the other with you on the downhill side.  Still bigger than you started with in that coin,  but no longer able to trade back. Ok that’s fine...  consider that tranche over with and just put it in long term hold status.  Start again with a new 20% trade bag.  Rinse and repeat.

I’ve done it in simulation and it’s always been a good result...  if there are any issues I haven’t thought of in this I would love to hear about them.  Apologies for the long post.

 

 

 

Wouldnt say risk free due to the tax implications. They will screw you over if your not setting aside some cash. Unless youre in one of those lucky countries.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

 

Exactly remember taxes.

  Swing trading can be a good way to increase your stack.  But Big Warning if crypto trades are taxable in your country  - always remember to convert to your local currency and pay the tax.  You don't want to end up in the situation where you increased your stack but the tax gains are higher than your entire portfolio (it happened to traders in 2017).

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/11/college-student-asks-did-i-ruin-my-life-by-trading-crypto-after-receiving-400000-tax-bill/

Wow, what a ******* nightmare. I would have cashed out after turning 5k into 800k, though. Who could resist that?

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Basically if you cash out on massive profits, pay taxes first before you re-invest. Also, he must have sold at the top and then bought back in to be in that situation, its the only way. If he didn't sell at the top, there are no gains to be had.

Those of us selling now generally won't have that issue, because all we have for the last 2 years are capital losses.

Edited by Archbob

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3 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

@Archbob remember in the US every  trade in the US either from crypto to crypto or crypto to cash is a taxable event. 

Also you can only carry forward $3k of capital losses a year.

 

Yeah, but if in total your crypto to crypto trades aren't resulting in positive cash profits, you don't owe anything and since BTC has been dropping lately, even if you are gaining positions in alts by swing trading, USD wise, you haven't made any money.

The only issue is if you have BTC and sold at $13k last year and then immediately re-invested in, which I didn't.

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5 hours ago, invest2lose said:

Wouldnt say risk free due to the tax implications.

I always included tax in the calculations (but for a few moments forgot to mention it in the post,  then edited it in).  So there is no tax risk if you pay as you go.  
That’s problematic with varying-value crypto so you need to work out the tax BEFORE you trade and ensure you will have a 5% gain after tax before trading.  If that’s going to work out ok,  then you do the swing trade AND SIMULTANEOUSLY MAKE A SALE TO FIAT FOR THE TAX.

So yeah,  it is tax risk free.  

It’s not trivial though,  because in most jurisdictions you will also have to include and calculate the tax due from the crypto to fiat sale.   Now you see why the tax implications were enough to dissuade me.

But if you are willing to set up a spreadsheet to manage it and do the calcs,  or if your tax regime is not as onerous then it can be a way to guarantee you end up with a bigger stash.

 

Edited by Dogowner5
Italics for critical bit

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