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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

It is interesting that Eth Market cap has fallen from 2.5x to 2x XRP.  So XRP seems to holding up relatively better than ETH, but it has not had the gains ETH had in 2019 - 19 so overall XRP has done badly.

I have noticed liquidity seems to get get very hard in the these bear markets.   This time the hit has been very hard, as if liquidity for ODL is dependent on higher XRP prices.  On the mex index we are back to late Jan levels

What happened to @Tinyaccount ? He seems to have deleted himself from XRPchat?  that would be a big loss for the community.

 

Screenshot_2020-03-16 liquidity-index XRP MXN.png

The 'liquidity index' that is calculated there is a metric that should be taken with a grain of salt. It is basically defined as follows:

Given the last 28 days of data, what would the volume be if volatility were 0?

Here, 'volume' simply keeps track of all volume through a corridor (so not necessarily ODL), and 'volatility' is (high_price-low_price)/mean_price.

The model assumes a linear relationship between volume and volatility: if volatility increases with a factor 2, it expects twice as much volume as well. Since the last couple of days were highly volatile (up to 4x as much so as before, see chart), but volume did not increase by that same factor, this drags down the expected volume for a volatility of 0 (which is the 'liquidity index').

Moreover, one extreme day in terms of volatility or volume impacts the next 28 data points, so that is why things appear more extreme than they probably are.

 

image.png.afc60bef3f41ae2251d09b89cdb33cf9.png

Edited by Xrpiet

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Bumping against a resistance at $0.164 but if we break through that, there is very little resistance up to $0.18 and even $0.21.  I jumped back in at $0.154 after trading swings, have a much bigger stack now and ready for a nice run.  But, I am placing a stop loss just below $0.16 in case this is another patented crypto head fake.  

I have a suspicion that the markets have finally finished pricing COVID in and we may be near a bottom.  Some US stocks are looking ridiculously cheap right now, some really good companies.

Good luck to all and hope everyone is staying healthy and away from this thing.

XKLElogl

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Haven't updated the big chart in a while given all of the chaos.  Amazingly enough, the big broadening wedge that we have been following since August of 2019 actually held up, even with a black swan event like COVID-19.  I am very heartened by this, as it seemed almost inevitable a couple weeks back that crypto was dead in the water.  I still have my doubts about the long term story, particularly when I see people talking about XRP in the $10's and $100's.  This trend is becoming about as rock-solid as you can ask for in macro TA.  The cycles seem to be getting longer with each iteration and, as such, I would have to say that the most likely trajectory is to climb our way back up to the $0.35 level, though that probably won't happen until July at the earliest and will likely entail a lot of up and down until that point.  Completely random flight path filled in for $hits and giggles. 

Plenty of volatility to trade :)

xMgpIEXX

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Posted (edited)
On 3/19/2020 at 5:08 PM, Molten said:

But, I am placing a stop loss just below $0.16 in case this is another patented crypto head fake.  

Lol nice job getting stopped out. 

 

13 hours ago, Molten said:

This trend is becoming about as rock-solid as you can ask for in macro TA.  The cycles seem to be getting longer with each iteration and, as such, I would have to say that the most likely trajectory is to climb our way back up to the $0.35 level, though that probably won't happen until July at the earliest and will likely entail a lot of up and down until that point.  Completely random flight path filled in for $hits and giggles. 

You're quite literally the worst technical analyst I've ever come across. Are you going to be doing this for the rest of your life?? Sure hope not. 

Edited by googo

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10 minutes ago, googo said:

 

 

You're quite literally the worst technical analyst I've ever come across. Are you going to be doing this for the rest of your life?? Sure hope not. 

He's actually not, because he's the same as most of the rest. They just draw colorful lines on whatever goes with the theory they are trying to present. I've learned not to listen to TA analysts, they are just guessing like the rest of us.

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12 hours ago, Archbob said:

En realidad no lo es, porque es el mismo que la mayoría del resto. Simplemente dibujan líneas coloridas en lo que sea que vaya con la teoría que intentan presentar. Aprendí a no escuchar a los analistas de AT, solo están adivinando como el resto de nosotros.

Here Not everyone believes that they are guessing. ... in fact we are more on the opposite side ...

if you do BELIEVE that we are all guessing because you do not create your own price guessing thread and you stop bothering others with your comments that contribute 0.000000 to this thread. ?

and you would have the advantage of not having to know more about us ... since we are not like you and we are NOT going to disturb your thread.

 

MAKE IT FRIEND. WE WILL THANK YOU.

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1 minute ago, Cesar1810 said:

Here Not everyone believes that they are guessing. ... in fact we are more on the opposite side ...

if you do BELIEVE that we are all guessing because you do not create your own price guessing thread and you stop bothering others with your comments that contribute 0.000000 to this thread. ?

and you would have the advantage of not having to know more about us ... since we are not like you and we are NOT going to disturb your thread.

 

MAKE IT FRIEND. WE WILL THANK YOU.

Why don't we look at how accurate are these forecasts compared to just plain guessing because there's really only 2 choices. Either it goes up or down. Is he right more than 50% of the time. If he's not, its random guessing.

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