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Charting the course of XRP


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Selling when the market slumps in a black swan event is such a typical behavior of retailer investors.

You'll actually sell your assets into my enormously large ball* bags.

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It is interesting that Eth Market cap has fallen from 2.5x to 2x XRP.  So XRP seems to holding up relatively better than ETH, but it has not had the gains ETH had in 2019 - 19 so overall XRP has done badly.

I have noticed liquidity seems to get get very hard in the these bear markets.   This time the hit has been very hard, as if liquidity for ODL is dependent on higher XRP prices.  On the mex index we are back to late Jan levels

What happened to @Tinyaccount ? He seems to have deleted himself from XRPchat?  that would be a big loss for the community.

 

Screenshot_2020-03-16 liquidity-index XRP MXN.png

Edited by Julian_Williams
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Waiting for the BIG panic drop and then I'm going to full bags again.  I don't think this is it yet.

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3 minutes ago, Martius said:

The chart looks like a big panic drop since 2018.... :( Anyhow to what level do you expect it to drop? xrp 0.07 and btc 3000?

no one knows , but my guess is 700$-3000$ BTC before June , at the lowest 700$ . 

XRP to me is even worse , I'd say 0.02-0.05$ is reachable unfortunately , and under this it's over .

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4 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

but he had a lot of staying power and did not seem the type

 

FYI, he bailed on the forum because he was tired of fighting trolls.  He still very much believes in XRP.

Not gonna lie, the general forum is almost completely useless and toxic for your average user.  I almost exclusively visit the Zerpening now, and the quality there is also dropping...

Everyone stay healthy, stay grounded and stick around.  The good times are still ahead.

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3 hours ago, Martius said:

The chart looks like a big panic drop since 2018.... :( Anyhow to what level do you expect it to drop? xrp 0.07 and btc 3000?

I think the $3400 level is very important to BTC.  That was the low back in February 2019 and, if we fall below that, we could easily get sub 2k.  Context will matter as the price moves too insofar as the situation with COVID.  Even if it falls below 2k or 1k, I think there will be plenty of ups and downs and a lot of opportunities to make money.  I'm waiting for the next panic candle to jump back in.

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20 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

It is interesting that Eth Market cap has fallen from 2.5x to 2x XRP.  So XRP seems to holding up relatively better than ETH, but it has not had the gains ETH had in 2019 - 19 so overall XRP has done badly.

I have noticed liquidity seems to get get very hard in the these bear markets.   This time the hit has been very hard, as if liquidity for ODL is dependent on higher XRP prices.  On the mex index we are back to late Jan levels

What happened to @Tinyaccount ? He seems to have deleted himself from XRPchat?  that would be a big loss for the community.

 

Screenshot_2020-03-16 liquidity-index XRP MXN.png

The 'liquidity index' that is calculated there is a metric that should be taken with a grain of salt. It is basically defined as follows:

Given the last 28 days of data, what would the volume be if volatility were 0?

Here, 'volume' simply keeps track of all volume through a corridor (so not necessarily ODL), and 'volatility' is (high_price-low_price)/mean_price.

The model assumes a linear relationship between volume and volatility: if volatility increases with a factor 2, it expects twice as much volume as well. Since the last couple of days were highly volatile (up to 4x as much so as before, see chart), but volume did not increase by that same factor, this drags down the expected volume for a volatility of 0 (which is the 'liquidity index').

Moreover, one extreme day in terms of volatility or volume impacts the next 28 data points, so that is why things appear more extreme than they probably are.

 

image.png.afc60bef3f41ae2251d09b89cdb33cf9.png

Edited by Xrpiet
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