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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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2 hours ago, Molten said:

Meanwhile, for those with a more masochistic side, we have technically fallen back into the broadening wedge pattern that I have been tracking for months and this could mean that we are due for another down and up in there that could take us to new lows in the mid-low teens before bouncing back.

I tend to think not - but it is certainly a possibility.  Hope not anyway.

i2OvAVxg

Vol has declined back to 3 million.  Is that significant?

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Not a technical person, however the current look of the chart reminds me strongly of the 1-5 up wave and abc correction. But then again there's also a head and shoulders!

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11 hours ago, Gamblord said:

My first post here, hello.

I echo the notion that XRP does not follow TA. All the TA I've seen on tradingview is wrong or very wrong. If anything XRP is mirroring BTC price action. News doesn't seem to affect price action either. 

On Reddit there's some hype around ODL reaching new ATH's on a daily basis but the evidence is telling me that this has no effect on XRP price. I don't see how increased ODL demand will result in higher XRP price since you only need a small fraction of circulating supply to make it work and it only gets held for less than 10 seconds at a time. 

In 2017, I remember it was largely retail investors that made XRP rocket to new ATH's. It appealed to a new crowd of speculators that thought banks would buy XRP or that banks wouldn't exist anymore in a few years. It piggybacked off BTC going past 1k and Ethereum hype. XRP was "cheap" and people threw in their disposable income and it became successful and now a top 3 incumbent coin. 

That's how I see it happening again. BTC going past it's prior ATH, new retail investors coming back in wanting to invest. When Bitcoin hits $30000, $40000, $50000 XRP will look like a bargain in comparison to the retail investor. This will lead an explosive uptrend we've seen in the past, price ranging from 0.0001 to 0.0002 BTC before retracing. People will credit the explosive rise to ODL doing 100m in daily volume, new partnerships, 30+ corridors, litigation suit being dismissed with prejudice, etc. At the end of the day the price rise will be speculators piling in trying to get a piece of the crypto pie because they believe they missed out on Bitcoin.

XRP is entirely dependent on Bitcoin for the upcoming cycle. Money will flow into BTC and it has to go past 20k first before XRP and everything else can get their moon. I believe XRP has a guaranteed spot at the dinner table being a top 3 coin and one of the few cryptos that have moneyed interests that care about the price and has never been shy about spending money to promote it. 

What isn't clear to me is exactly when Bitcoin will surpass it's previous ATH. I have always thought Bitcoin is a 4 year cycle and 6-12 months after  May 12 2020 we could expect to see price to go past 20k. Recently though I have seen contradicting evidence to suggest cycles are getting longer and that it may longer time frame to achieve this feat like in previous cycles. It does make sense to me since it is conceivably easier to go from 1-20k than 20-200k.

Conservatively, I see Bitcoin hitting 56-100k in the next 2-3 years. If it's a 4 year cycle I can expect this by mid 2021. Based on XRP Satoshi price that would make it range in the $4-18 area. I'm sure most of us will be content with the lower end of the range. 

Many of you will say Bitcoin is inferior/outdated technology but the reason the price continues to climb is because of PoW system that necessitates electricity and computation power to be spent on it. This is obviously expensive and humans tend to put value in things they sacrifice and work for. The wasted money, power and electricity justifies the price of Bitcoin despite all the problems. XRP doesn't do any of that and is punished for it. Since virtually no work was needed to mine XRP people cannot value it properly. It's human nature for people not to respect something given to them for free. In conclusion, XRP will have to piggyback off the success of Bitcoin, at least in our current cycle, if we are to get rich.

 

Agreed on most everything.  But the one thing i think you miss is that TA does count especially if you believe in market cycles, which are very real.  If one knows where one is in the market cycle, technical analysis can point to where the ups and downs are.  I suspect most people don't understand market cyclicality and therefore shun TA as "reading tea leaves", when in fact it points to where we are in the cycle.  For traders, of which I am not, this can be helpful. 

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27 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Agreed on most everything.  But the one thing i think you miss is that TA does count especially if you believe in market cycles, which are very real.  If one knows where one is in the market cycle, technical analysis can point to where the ups and downs are.  I suspect most people don't understand market cyclicality and therefore shun TA as "reading tea leaves", when in fact it points to where we are in the cycle.  For traders, of which I am not, this can be helpful. 

Also agree with a lot of this re XRP, though the jury is very much out on what the affect of ODL will be when it ramps up.  Im of the mind that there is likely to be some positive buoying effect on XRP price as it compares to other cryptos and this may eventually lead to the uncoupling that all of us have been waiting for.  There is just no corollary in history to draw comparisons to, we will just need to wait and see.

I do obviously think TA has some relevance in predicting near term and intermediate term trends, but less so in predicting the price in years, new ATH etc.

Edited by Molten

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48 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

  If one knows where one is in the market cycle, technical analysis can point to where the ups and downs are.  

Any Idea where we are in that Market Cycle at present?

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14 hours ago, Molten said:

I think @dr_ed is taking a break from the crypto market for a while (which I completely advocate for anyone who finds themselves stressing or watching the market too closely..

Well - If Anyone knows @dr_ed, Please tell him from me that he is missed.

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2 hours ago, WarChest said:

Any Idea where we are in that Market Cycle at present?

"Disbelief" in my opinion.  The very beginnings of a bull market for 2020/2021. Yet how that affects XRP we don't yet know. 

@Molten  on ODL- Yeah I think the same way as well.  Once it ramps up it's a potentially very different story.  I just meant ODL today and in the very short term. Use may eventually be the main or only driver of value inside this market unlike the speculative nature of today.    I am tracking the corridor volume like most everyone, and find it extremely encouraging.  At the time when I got in- it was the use, or at that time the potentional use, which attracted me so much to XRP.  Now it's the use which keeps me in.  Everyday seems to be encouraging on that level.

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On 2/19/2020 at 4:50 AM, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Exactly this. I truly appreciate TA guys with integrity. That, this is not. 

He flopped on so many calls and then when we were really in the gutter he took a convenient leave of absence lol. Zero credibility. 

Now he isbadvicating anyone calling his overhwhelmingly bad calls out be put on an ignore list. Others are suggestiglng privatising the thread.

I was here since late 2017, my old account got banned for calling out the cultish groups then. I see the cycle repeating here. As soon as criticism is frowned upon, labelled as fud or unhelpful, you know it is too late to save people caught up in this current cycle of dillusion. 

If it’s too late, then you must not be an intelligent person for continuing to try to do something that you know you cannot do.

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5 hours ago, WarChest said:

Any Idea where we are in that Market Cycle at present?

I thought these videos were interesting regarding BTC market cycle. He was spot on at the time he made the video and we are still on pace. This is for Bitcoin but everything else will follow it. We won't see gains like we did in late 2017 until there is mania in the market again and everyone and their mother is trying to buy crypto.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZvOhJYW_Hw

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3 hours ago, Lawyer said:

I thought these videos were interesting regarding BTC market cycle. He was spot on at the time he made the video and we are still on pace. This is for Bitcoin but everything else will follow it. We won't see gains like we did in late 2017 until there is mania in the market again and everyone and their mother is trying to buy crypto.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZvOhJYW_Hw

His analsysis is great.   He is very much a BTC maxi though, so don't look to him for constructive analysis re XRP.

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11 hours ago, xrphilosophy said:

Agreed on most everything.  But the one thing i think you miss is that TA does count especially if you believe in market cycles, which are very real.  If one knows where one is in the market cycle, technical analysis can point to where the ups and downs are.  I suspect most people don't understand market cyclicality and therefore shun TA as "reading tea leaves", when in fact it points to where we are in the cycle.  For traders, of which I am not, this can be helpful. 

I definitely pay attention to TA when it comes to Bitcoin due to the long history, patterns associated with halvenings. I'm saying that XRP TA is not reliable and entirely dependent on BTC. You would have to predict BTC movements and then XRP on top of that. Makes sense that most people get it wrong. Bitcoin has a real cycle and XRP and all other coins follow it. 

The only reason I haven't given up in crypto is because of my convictions in this cycle. I knew BTC price wouldn't drop to 2.5k after last December because of the upcoming halvenings. TA said we broke another parabola and had to drop down 80% from the top. Most of the TA people got it wrong because they ignored basic fundamentals of Bitcoin. 

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On 2/21/2020 at 12:58 AM, Gamblord said:

My first post here, hello.

I echo the notion that XRP does not follow TA. All the TA I've seen on tradingview is wrong or very wrong. If anything XRP is mirroring BTC price action. News doesn't seem to affect price action either. 

On Reddit there's some hype around ODL reaching new ATH's on a daily basis but the evidence is telling me that this has no effect on XRP price. I don't see how increased ODL demand will result in higher XRP price since you only need a small fraction of circulating supply to make it work and it only gets held for less than 10 seconds at a time. 

In 2017, I remember it was largely retail investors that made XRP rocket to new ATH's. It appealed to a new crowd of speculators that thought banks would buy XRP or that banks wouldn't exist anymore in a few years. It piggybacked off BTC going past 1k and Ethereum hype. XRP was "cheap" and people threw in their disposable income and it became successful and now a top 3 incumbent coin. 

That's how I see it happening again. BTC going past it's prior ATH, new retail investors coming back in wanting to invest. When Bitcoin hits $30000, $40000, $50000 XRP will look like a bargain in comparison to the retail investor. This will lead an explosive uptrend we've seen in the past, price ranging from 0.0001 to 0.0002 BTC before retracing. People will credit the explosive rise to ODL doing 100m in daily volume, new partnerships, 30+ corridors, litigation suit being dismissed with prejudice, etc. At the end of the day the price rise will be speculators piling in trying to get a piece of the crypto pie because they believe they missed out on Bitcoin.

XRP is entirely dependent on Bitcoin for the upcoming cycle. Money will flow into BTC and it has to go past 20k first before XRP and everything else can get their moon. I believe XRP has a guaranteed spot at the dinner table being a top 3 coin and one of the few cryptos that have moneyed interests that care about the price and has never been shy about spending money to promote it. 

What isn't clear to me is exactly when Bitcoin will surpass it's previous ATH. I have always thought Bitcoin is a 4 year cycle and 6-12 months after  May 12 2020 we could expect to see price to go past 20k. Recently though I have seen contradicting evidence to suggest cycles are getting longer and that it may longer time frame to achieve this feat like in previous cycles. It does make sense to me since it is conceivably easier to go from 1-20k than 20-200k.

Conservatively, I see Bitcoin hitting 56-100k in the next 2-3 years. If it's a 4 year cycle I can expect this by mid 2021. Based on XRP Satoshi price that would make it range in the $4-18 area. I'm sure most of us will be content with the lower end of the range. 

Many of you will say Bitcoin is inferior/outdated technology but the reason the price continues to climb is because of PoW system that necessitates electricity and computation power to be spent on it. This is obviously expensive and humans tend to put value in things they sacrifice and work for. The wasted money, power and electricity justifies the price of Bitcoin despite all the problems. XRP doesn't do any of that and is punished for it. Since virtually no work was needed to mine XRP people cannot value it properly. It's human nature for people not to respect something given to them for free. In conclusion, XRP will have to piggyback off the success of Bitcoin, at least in our current cycle, if we are to get rich.

 

Your analysis is level headed, and may be correct, but it is not my view. Yes XRP is coupled to BTC, and yes a new BTC ATH would leverage a parabolic reaction from XRP.

I think in the end XRP attracts a different sort of investor to BTC.  They are polar opposites.  BTC investors are traditional crypto investors with anti establishment sentiments.  XRP investors are newbies and pro establishment.  The problem is there are not enough XRP type investors in the pool yet, many of these pro-establishment investors lump XRP as another BTC variant and never look hard at the stark differences.  

The newbies will arrive on the coat tails of SBI and other establishment promoters of ODL , and XRP will sweep through whole segments of the population hostile and inaccessible to BTC.  At this point XRP will decouple and usurp BTC place as No1.  It might happen next month, it might happen in 2022, we do not know....but it will happen.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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XRP state of play...

CyclesXRP22120.thumb.png.96ab6f275f3129ddaa3fab2fcb7432f9.png

1. Major uptrend held (white dashed line).

2. Price is (just) above the FLD.

3. Last MA cross was roughly at mid-point of correction suggesting it is complete.

4. Peaks are right-shifted suggesting uptrend.

5. Red MA and red envelopes are up (good), blue and green are still down (bad).

6. Price moved outside lower blue envelope suggesting reversal to upside.

7. Price appears centered about the 0.275 octave for now.

8. New cycle looks to have started. As such should soon see a move upwards, next octave is around 0.293.

 

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1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

Your analysis is level headed, and may be correct, but it is not my view. Yes XRP is coupled to BTC, and yes a new BTC ATH would leverage a parabolic reaction from XRP.

I think in the end XRP attracts a different sort of investor to BTC.  They are polar opposites.  BTC investors are traditional crypto investors with anti establishment sentiments.  XRP investors are newbies and pro establishment.  The problem is there are not enough XRP type investors in the pool yet, many of these pro-establishment investors lump XRP as another BTC variant and never look hard at the stark differences.  

The newbies will arrive on the coat tails of SBI and other establishment promoters of ODL , and XRP will sweep through whole segments of the population hostile and inaccessible to BTC.  At this point XRP will decouple and usurp BTC place as No1.  It might happen next month, it might happen in 2022, we do not know....but it will happen.

I pretty much agree with you entirely regarding XRP investors. They are what I referred to as retail investors. The frat boys at college, the boomer dad interested in "buying a stake in Ripple", and the crypto moon boys with $589 predictions. These guys care about the money making potential of crypto, nothing else. To be fair, BTC maximalists are not much different despite what they say.

I'm skeptical about people being drawn in by SBI and ODL promotions. Historically people are drawn in by prices. When Bitcoin smashed through 1k we had a bull run in crypto like never before. When it hit 20k even my co-workers and taxi drivers were talking about it. That's what brings people in, at least for now. 

With regards to ODL giving XRP liquidity leading to higher price argument...I think it makes sense according to economics. If XRP changes hands with fiat enough it will eventually become very interchangeable and become similar to money or gold. I just don't know what the time horizon on that is. It took a long time for BTC to achieve the market liquidity it did. Not certain how long it will take for XRP to achieve something similar with ODL and surpass BTC in terms of liquidity. 

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