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Charting the course of XRP

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3 hours ago, Lawyer said:

I thought these videos were interesting regarding BTC market cycle. He was spot on at the time he made the video and we are still on pace. This is for Bitcoin but everything else will follow it. We won't see gains like we did in late 2017 until there is mania in the market again and everyone and their mother is trying to buy crypto.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZvOhJYW_Hw

His analsysis is great.   He is very much a BTC maxi though, so don't look to him for constructive analysis re XRP.

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11 hours ago, xrphilosophy said:

Agreed on most everything.  But the one thing i think you miss is that TA does count especially if you believe in market cycles, which are very real.  If one knows where one is in the market cycle, technical analysis can point to where the ups and downs are.  I suspect most people don't understand market cyclicality and therefore shun TA as "reading tea leaves", when in fact it points to where we are in the cycle.  For traders, of which I am not, this can be helpful. 

I definitely pay attention to TA when it comes to Bitcoin due to the long history, patterns associated with halvenings. I'm saying that XRP TA is not reliable and entirely dependent on BTC. You would have to predict BTC movements and then XRP on top of that. Makes sense that most people get it wrong. Bitcoin has a real cycle and XRP and all other coins follow it. 

The only reason I haven't given up in crypto is because of my convictions in this cycle. I knew BTC price wouldn't drop to 2.5k after last December because of the upcoming halvenings. TA said we broke another parabola and had to drop down 80% from the top. Most of the TA people got it wrong because they ignored basic fundamentals of Bitcoin. 

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On 2/21/2020 at 12:58 AM, Gamblord said:

My first post here, hello.

I echo the notion that XRP does not follow TA. All the TA I've seen on tradingview is wrong or very wrong. If anything XRP is mirroring BTC price action. News doesn't seem to affect price action either. 

On Reddit there's some hype around ODL reaching new ATH's on a daily basis but the evidence is telling me that this has no effect on XRP price. I don't see how increased ODL demand will result in higher XRP price since you only need a small fraction of circulating supply to make it work and it only gets held for less than 10 seconds at a time. 

In 2017, I remember it was largely retail investors that made XRP rocket to new ATH's. It appealed to a new crowd of speculators that thought banks would buy XRP or that banks wouldn't exist anymore in a few years. It piggybacked off BTC going past 1k and Ethereum hype. XRP was "cheap" and people threw in their disposable income and it became successful and now a top 3 incumbent coin. 

That's how I see it happening again. BTC going past it's prior ATH, new retail investors coming back in wanting to invest. When Bitcoin hits $30000, $40000, $50000 XRP will look like a bargain in comparison to the retail investor. This will lead an explosive uptrend we've seen in the past, price ranging from 0.0001 to 0.0002 BTC before retracing. People will credit the explosive rise to ODL doing 100m in daily volume, new partnerships, 30+ corridors, litigation suit being dismissed with prejudice, etc. At the end of the day the price rise will be speculators piling in trying to get a piece of the crypto pie because they believe they missed out on Bitcoin.

XRP is entirely dependent on Bitcoin for the upcoming cycle. Money will flow into BTC and it has to go past 20k first before XRP and everything else can get their moon. I believe XRP has a guaranteed spot at the dinner table being a top 3 coin and one of the few cryptos that have moneyed interests that care about the price and has never been shy about spending money to promote it. 

What isn't clear to me is exactly when Bitcoin will surpass it's previous ATH. I have always thought Bitcoin is a 4 year cycle and 6-12 months after  May 12 2020 we could expect to see price to go past 20k. Recently though I have seen contradicting evidence to suggest cycles are getting longer and that it may longer time frame to achieve this feat like in previous cycles. It does make sense to me since it is conceivably easier to go from 1-20k than 20-200k.

Conservatively, I see Bitcoin hitting 56-100k in the next 2-3 years. If it's a 4 year cycle I can expect this by mid 2021. Based on XRP Satoshi price that would make it range in the $4-18 area. I'm sure most of us will be content with the lower end of the range. 

Many of you will say Bitcoin is inferior/outdated technology but the reason the price continues to climb is because of PoW system that necessitates electricity and computation power to be spent on it. This is obviously expensive and humans tend to put value in things they sacrifice and work for. The wasted money, power and electricity justifies the price of Bitcoin despite all the problems. XRP doesn't do any of that and is punished for it. Since virtually no work was needed to mine XRP people cannot value it properly. It's human nature for people not to respect something given to them for free. In conclusion, XRP will have to piggyback off the success of Bitcoin, at least in our current cycle, if we are to get rich.

 

Your analysis is level headed, and may be correct, but it is not my view. Yes XRP is coupled to BTC, and yes a new BTC ATH would leverage a parabolic reaction from XRP.

I think in the end XRP attracts a different sort of investor to BTC.  They are polar opposites.  BTC investors are traditional crypto investors with anti establishment sentiments.  XRP investors are newbies and pro establishment.  The problem is there are not enough XRP type investors in the pool yet, many of these pro-establishment investors lump XRP as another BTC variant and never look hard at the stark differences.  

The newbies will arrive on the coat tails of SBI and other establishment promoters of ODL , and XRP will sweep through whole segments of the population hostile and inaccessible to BTC.  At this point XRP will decouple and usurp BTC place as No1.  It might happen next month, it might happen in 2022, we do not know....but it will happen.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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XRP state of play...

CyclesXRP22120.thumb.png.96ab6f275f3129ddaa3fab2fcb7432f9.png

1. Major uptrend held (white dashed line).

2. Price is (just) above the FLD.

3. Last MA cross was roughly at mid-point of correction suggesting it is complete.

4. Peaks are right-shifted suggesting uptrend.

5. Red MA and red envelopes are up (good), blue and green are still down (bad).

6. Price moved outside lower blue envelope suggesting reversal to upside.

7. Price appears centered about the 0.275 octave for now.

8. New cycle looks to have started. As such should soon see a move upwards, next octave is around 0.293.

 

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1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

Your analysis is level headed, and may be correct, but it is not my view. Yes XRP is coupled to BTC, and yes a new BTC ATH would leverage a parabolic reaction from XRP.

I think in the end XRP attracts a different sort of investor to BTC.  They are polar opposites.  BTC investors are traditional crypto investors with anti establishment sentiments.  XRP investors are newbies and pro establishment.  The problem is there are not enough XRP type investors in the pool yet, many of these pro-establishment investors lump XRP as another BTC variant and never look hard at the stark differences.  

The newbies will arrive on the coat tails of SBI and other establishment promoters of ODL , and XRP will sweep through whole segments of the population hostile and inaccessible to BTC.  At this point XRP will decouple and usurp BTC place as No1.  It might happen next month, it might happen in 2022, we do not know....but it will happen.

I pretty much agree with you entirely regarding XRP investors. They are what I referred to as retail investors. The frat boys at college, the boomer dad interested in "buying a stake in Ripple", and the crypto moon boys with $589 predictions. These guys care about the money making potential of crypto, nothing else. To be fair, BTC maximalists are not much different despite what they say.

I'm skeptical about people being drawn in by SBI and ODL promotions. Historically people are drawn in by prices. When Bitcoin smashed through 1k we had a bull run in crypto like never before. When it hit 20k even my co-workers and taxi drivers were talking about it. That's what brings people in, at least for now. 

With regards to ODL giving XRP liquidity leading to higher price argument...I think it makes sense according to economics. If XRP changes hands with fiat enough it will eventually become very interchangeable and become similar to money or gold. I just don't know what the time horizon on that is. It took a long time for BTC to achieve the market liquidity it did. Not certain how long it will take for XRP to achieve something similar with ODL and surpass BTC in terms of liquidity. 

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1 hour ago, Gamblord said:

It took a long time for BTC to achieve the market liquidity it did.

Just a thought...  the vast bulk of that time was with zero institutional investment...   so that slowness may not apply if XRP is adopted by commercial entities.

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On 2/21/2020 at 6:15 AM, Molten said:

.  I had said last weekend when we were around $0.33-0.34 that a correction could be incoming and that I would like to see us hold $0.27 and I still feel the same way.

Hahaha how can anyone take this guy seriously. The tweet he is referring to is when xrp was at .33c and he showed charts showing how it was going to break out further to the upside. He then ended his 'TA' with a one sentence caveat that tbe price could regress.

Now he is claiming to have called the downturn 😂😂😂

Guys, this is the same guy who dissapeared at .17. He seems like an OK guy but his TA is TRASH.

Edited by XRP_to_20dollars

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2 hours ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Hahaha how can anyone take this guy seriously. The tweet he is referring to is when xrp was at .33c and he showed charts showing how it was going to break out further to the upside. He then ended his 'TA' with a one sentence caveat that tbe price could regress.

Now he is claiming to have called the downturn 😂😂😂

Guys, this is the same guy who dissapeared at .17. He seems like an OK guy but his TA is TRASH.

I don't believe that @Molten has ever claimed to be a professional at analyzing trends. He is merely giving his opinion based on what he sees. 

You seem awfully opinionated as to the quality of these analyses @XRP_to_20dollars... why don't you grace us all with your TA skills?

Otherwise, you are welcome to hold your opinions without constantly bashing the efforts of others.

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42 minutes ago, eXtRaPolate said:

I don't believe that @Molten has ever claimed to be a professional at analyzing trends. He is merely giving his opinion based on what he sees. 

You seem awfully opinionated as to the quality of these analyses @XRP_to_20dollars... why don't you grace us all with your TA skills?

Otherwise, you are welcome to hold your opinions without constantly bashing the efforts of others.

I only comment when he makes false/exaggerated/out of context claims about his previous calls. If that means you are reading a lot of me, make your own conclusions.

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44 minutes ago, eXtRaPolate said:

I don't believe that @Molten has ever claimed to be a professional at analyzing trends. He is merely giving his opinion based on what he sees. 

You seem awfully opinionated as to the quality of these analyses @XRP_to_20dollars... why don't you grace us all with your TA skills?

Otherwise, you are welcome to hold your opinions without constantly bashing the efforts of others.

And as for my TA, I follow the molten school of thought;

It will go up but could do down. 😂

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3 hours ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Hahaha how can anyone take this guy seriously. The tweet he is referring to is when xrp was at .33c and he showed charts showing how it was going to break out further to the upside. He then ended his 'TA' with a one sentence caveat that tbe price could regress.

Now he is claiming to have called the downturn 😂😂😂

Guys, this is the same guy who dissapeared at .17. He seems like an OK guy but his TA is TRASH.

'Guys...'

you're really giving it your best trying to convince 'the guys' on this forum his 'TA is trash'. We like the TA for entertainment during a somewhat dull market and to view scenarios. It's not about being correct all the time in hindsight.

You don't like it? Don't come to this thread. Or start contributing something yourself to this forum because until now you're only leeching and seeking conflict.

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6 hours ago, Gamblord said:

I pretty much agree with you entirely regarding XRP investors. They are what I referred to as retail investors. The frat boys at college, the boomer dad interested in "buying a stake in Ripple", and the crypto moon boys with $589 predictions. These guys care about the money making potential of crypto, nothing else. To be fair, BTC maximalists are not much different despite what they say.

I'm skeptical about people being drawn in by SBI and ODL promotions. Historically people are drawn in by prices. When Bitcoin smashed through 1k we had a bull run in crypto like never before. When it hit 20k even my co-workers and taxi drivers were talking about it. That's what brings people in, at least for now. 

With regards to ODL giving XRP liquidity leading to higher price argument...I think it makes sense according to economics. If XRP changes hands with fiat enough it will eventually become very interchangeable and become similar to money or gold. I just don't know what the time horizon on that is. It took a long time for BTC to achieve the market liquidity it did. Not certain how long it will take for XRP to achieve something similar with ODL and surpass BTC in terms of liquidity. 

100% @Gamblord ....your co-workers and taxi drivers could be leveraged into talking about XRP through stories about BTC rises,...and through stories about the birth of the Internet of Value and ODL.  So far it has all been the former, but the latter is a very sexy story that ultimately is a more powerful pull than the BTC story (which is tarnished by the environmental issue and money laundering memes)  XRP has two bites of the cherry, BTC only one.

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On 2/20/2020 at 7:58 PM, Gamblord said:

Many of you will say Bitcoin is inferior/outdated technology but the reason the price continues to climb is because of PoW system that necessitates electricity and computation power to be spent on it. This is obviously expensive and humans tend to put value in things they sacrifice and work for. The wasted money, power and electricity justifies the price of Bitcoin despite all the problems. XRP doesn't do any of that and is punished for it. Since virtually no work was needed to mine XRP people cannot value it properly. It's human nature for people not to respect something given to them for free. In conclusion, XRP will have to piggyback off the success of Bitcoin, at least in our current cycle, if we are to get rich.

This is a good point that doesn’t get talked a lot, especially the respect part. BTC has to be earned which is still open for anyone to do that. It also has a mathematical programmed circulation supply (stock to flows) that can be predicted with relative accuracy.  

100 billion xrp being created out of thin air and in which Ripple, its founders, and angel investors having first dibs does not sit well with a lot of people when discussions arise about it being a store of value.

XRP in the long run will really have to depend on it’s ability as a bridge asset and other use cases such as streaming payments. If it becomes a median of exchange when changing currencies frequently and long enough, maybe it will be slowly accepted as a median of exchange to purchase anything one day. But that is xrp utopia, and not what my investment is based on. ODL increasing, corridors opening up, and a psychological BTC driven bull run is why I am hodling.

Edited by ManBearPig

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Triangles have been pretty brutal recently in their predictive success and, has been pointed out relentlessly by some of more my more adoring fans on this forum, I have made a number of incorrect calls on them.  Nonetheless, I am seeing another forming over the last few days and I am going to keep calling them when I see them. 

Price oscillations are tightening, volume is dropping, all the typical hallmarks of a symmetrical triangle.  The apex of this triangle is around 6 AM tomorrow morning (EST).  This triangle has a 2 cent width and so the target for a breakout would be either $0.29ish or $0.25ish depending on the direction of the break.  

w3L8qLFl

Edited by Guest

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10 hours ago, Gamblord said:

I pretty much agree with you entirely regarding XRP investors. They are what I referred to as retail investors. The frat boys at college, the boomer dad interested in "buying a stake in Ripple", and the crypto moon boys with $589 predictions. These guys care about the money making potential of crypto, nothing else. To be fair, BTC maximalists are not much different despite what they say.

I'm skeptical about people being drawn in by SBI and ODL promotions. Historically people are drawn in by prices. When Bitcoin smashed through 1k we had a bull run in crypto like never before. When it hit 20k even my co-workers and taxi drivers were talking about it. That's what brings people in, at least for now. 

With regards to ODL giving XRP liquidity leading to higher price argument...I think it makes sense according to economics. If XRP changes hands with fiat enough it will eventually become very interchangeable and become similar to money or gold. I just don't know what the time horizon on that is. It took a long time for BTC to achieve the market liquidity it did. Not certain how long it will take for XRP to achieve something similar with ODL and surpass BTC in terms of liquidity. 

LOL, that's funny... I'm somewhere between the frat boy and the boomer dad, but I agree entirely with your thesis.  I do still have high hopes for the effect of ODL, particularly so if the adoption continues at the rate that it has been.  I think we are seeing just the very beginning of exponential adoption.

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