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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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5 hours ago, Molten said:

An interesting thing (to me anyway) on the XRP chart.  The RSI (relative strength index) can give you a sense of whether an asset is "overbought" or "oversold" and I had been saying for a few days that this run up in XRP was leaving us overbought - in other words, prime for a correction.

Well, we had that correction (have almost retraced 50% of the run up, which is not atypical at all) and now we are safely back in the neutral zone for the RSI.

Now, the interesting part.  Our current RSI value is 54.7 at a price of around $0.277.  Last time our RSI was 54.7 was 1/27/20 at a price of around $0.23.  So, you can see how a bull market builds with this.  Same RSI, higher price.  This is how the two steps forward and one step back movement can get you to much higher prices without being technically overbought.  

DgEpRxeS

Posts like these are why I love this thread. Thanks for taking the time to explain the fundamentals of technical analysis. I've never been a TA investor nor have I taken the time to learn about it but I follow this thread everyday and everyday there's something new to learn :JC_doubleup:

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5 hours ago, Molten said:

Yep, RSI is the purple line.  It gives you a sense of where an asset is in terms of moving averages and whether or not it is overbought or oversold.  Generally, a high RSI tells you that we are due for a correction, so yes, high is bad and low is good.   Although RSI was low for a veeeeery long time before XRP finally popped up, so, in general, I think a high RSI is much more predictive of a correction than a low RSI is of a bounce.  That make sense?

How does the all time RSI look or RSI since ATH? Curious to see if we've even started to break out on the RSI or if we're still largely oversold. 

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36 minutes ago, Mpolnet said:

How does the all time RSI look or RSI since ATH? Curious to see if we've even started to break out on the RSI or if we're still largely oversold. 

I think the weekly chart probably gives you the best sense of how things are going on a macro level.  If I were ever to make trading decisions, like when to finally look to sell part of my stash, it would be based in part on the weekly RSI.  Here is how it looks including the old ATH... we've come nowhere near the level of overbought that we were back then.

ia4sThw7

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One more "interesting" chart tidbit that I noticed since @Mpolnet had me looking back at the ATH.  Look at the green weekly candles leading up to the ATH.  Look at the volume.  Declining with every green week while the candles got bigger and bigger.  And the RSI got higher and higher.  So many red flags, I wish I had been better versed in TA back then.  That chart was screaming "SELL!!!!!". 

Compare with today's green candles on the weekly, volume rising with each one.  I make no claims on the future (for all the trolls waiting to pounce), but this chart looks much healthier than it did back then.  That being said, XRP you feel free to go ahead and go full parabolic anytime you want, but I'll be ready this time :)

u2c66Gtr

nUnMS8v7

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@Molten you're a TA god! curious what your (and everyone else's) thoughts are on ATH and whether or not we will exceed those levels during the next bull run. My view is that we'll exceed given a number of reason 1) the increase in the total population investing in crypto 2) speculation during last bull run was based on worse fundamentals than are currently in-place 3) ODL is live and growing. However, curious what people in this thread think and WHY.

Disclaimer: I don't care if you think the price is going to zero (everyone is entitled to their own opinion) but please refrain from saying price will go to zero and not explain the thought process behind why.

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12 minutes ago, Mpolnet said:

@Molten you're a TA god! curious what your (and everyone else's) thoughts are on ATH and whether or not we will exceed those levels during the next bull run. My view is that we'll exceed given a number of reason 1) the increase in the total population investing in crypto 2) speculation during last bull run was based on worse fundamentals than are currently in-place 3) ODL is live and growing. However, curious what people in this thread think and WHY.

Disclaimer: I don't care if you think the price is going to zero (everyone is entitled to their own opinion) but please refrain from saying price will go to zero and not explain the thought process behind why.

So many variables that it is quite impossible to make accurate predictions about how high (or low) it could go.  So many unknowns.  But, as @Eric123 always says, crypto surprises to the upside and the downside. 

FWIW, I always thought $5-7 was a good target range for XRP.  I'm not of the mind that it will get to $50 or past $100, but who knows?  This may just be a symptom of my imagination being too limited.  My opinion means nothing.

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One more chart today (probably).  We were talking about volume and it prompted me to look at XRPBTC.  Look at the steady growth in XRPBTC volume for the past few weeks.  And keep in mind this has nothing to do with ODL, this is pure speculative volume.  It's building up nicely, very steady progress week to week.  Now compare with the volume right before things started to take off in 2017.  Same type of pattern, a build up of volume prior to an explosion in the XRPBTC pair.  

DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that everything is going to play out the same way or that I know what the future holds.  But volume typically precedes price and volume is building.  It is what it is.

Currently:

OHUaB1nW

2017:

wuIVxRza

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I think it is very difficult to forecast the future ATH, and whether it will be followed by another crypto winter.  My guess is that it depends on whether the media catches ripplemania.  If the media starts to tell the world the story of adoption of ODL, its functionality and the integration of all Financial services on the IoV at the same time as report on the fast growing price bubble, we could see an ATH that simply dwarfs everything that has ever happened before in crypto.  Private and institutional investors will simply go into a FOMO frenzy.

We are very, very early.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Molten said:

So many variables that it is quite impossible to make accurate predictions about how high (or low) it could go.  So many unknowns.  But, as @Eric123 always says, crypto surprises to the upside and the downside. 

FWIW, I always thought $5-7 was a good target range for XRP.  I'm not of the mind that it will get to $50 or past $100, but who knows?  This may just be a symptom of my imagination being too limited.  My opinion means nothing.

I think we'll exceed $7/per XRP. Based on current total supply that would imply a network value (i.e Market Cap) of ~$700B. If BTC is assumed to overtake Gold then it's network value would approach the trillions. Given the global cross border money flows are in the $100T+ every year, caputring 1% of this total volume would that XRP needs to have a network value that is able to support $1T annually. This excludes an gaming, micropayment, and settlement (for trading ForEx or traditional equities and improts/exports) use cases. Just my two cents on how I'm viewing price potential relative to network value/value the network needs to sustain to facilitate it's use cases.

EDIT: I don't think it's unreasonable if we see a network value of $1T. This psychological barrier has been broken this past year in traditional equities with both Amazon and Apple having market caps that exceed $1T.

EDIT #2: Sorry for hijacking the thread for a moment @Molten

Edited by Mpolnet

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1 hour ago, Mpolnet said:

EDIT #2: Sorry for hijacking the thread for a moment @Molten

It's never hijacking to add to the discussion!  I hope you're right with your valuations; I tend to skew conservative... you could very well be right.  

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think it is very difficult to forecast the future ATH, and whether it will be followed by another crypto winter.  My guess is that it depends on whether the media catches ripplemania.  If the media starts to tell the world the story of adoption of ODL, its functionality and the integration of all Financial services on the IoV at the same time as report on the fast growing price bubble, we could see an ATH that simply dwarfs everything that has ever happened before in crypto.  Private and institutional investors will simply go into a FOMO frenzy.

We are very, very early.

 

 

XRP won't dwarf BTC media spotlight, simply because the price of BTC dwarfs that of xrp from the outside and that's all people especially retail care about. 

If a bullrun comes IF and BTC is again around 20k + even if xrp would be 30$ ppl would still not care even if media talks about ODL and we all know that smart money doesn't get into FOMO easily if at all so don't expect some magic tsunami of cash flow coming from institutions they are way more resistant to FOMO then your average retailer.

I don't think xrp will get above 5$ in the next bullrun to much sell power. And ODL still needs probably 5+ years to even matter price wise. 

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7 hours ago, Molten said:

One more "interesting" chart tidbit that I noticed since @Mpolnet had me looking back at the ATH.  Look at the green weekly candles leading up to the ATH.  Look at the volume.  Declining with every green week while the candles got bigger and bigger.  And the RSI got higher and higher.  So many red flags, I wish I had been better versed in TA back then.

Great catch Molten, thanks for sharing. 

A few months after the ATH, I recall studying the history of past spikes, and noticed the 55dma was the always the retrenchment trigger point. 

That descending volume during a run up clearly signals declining sentiment. Good stuff.

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