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Charting the course of XRP

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40 minutes ago, Molten said:

So many variables that it is quite impossible to make accurate predictions about how high (or low) it could go.  So many unknowns.  But, as @Eric123 always says, crypto surprises to the upside and the downside. 

FWIW, I always thought $5-7 was a good target range for XRP.  I'm not of the mind that it will get to $50 or past $100, but who knows?  This may just be a symptom of my imagination being too limited.  My opinion means nothing.

I think we'll exceed $7/per XRP. Based on current total supply that would imply a network value (i.e Market Cap) of ~$700B. If BTC is assumed to overtake Gold then it's network value would approach the trillions. Given the global cross border money flows are in the $100T+ every year, caputring 1% of this total volume would that XRP needs to have a network value that is able to support $1T annually. This excludes an gaming, micropayment, and settlement (for trading ForEx or traditional equities and improts/exports) use cases. Just my two cents on how I'm viewing price potential relative to network value/value the network needs to sustain to facilitate it's use cases.

EDIT: I don't think it's unreasonable if we see a network value of $1T. This psychological barrier has been broken this past year in traditional equities with both Amazon and Apple having market caps that exceed $1T.

EDIT #2: Sorry for hijacking the thread for a moment @Molten

Edited by Mpolnet

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1 hour ago, Mpolnet said:

EDIT #2: Sorry for hijacking the thread for a moment @Molten

It's never hijacking to add to the discussion!  I hope you're right with your valuations; I tend to skew conservative... you could very well be right.  

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think it is very difficult to forecast the future ATH, and whether it will be followed by another crypto winter.  My guess is that it depends on whether the media catches ripplemania.  If the media starts to tell the world the story of adoption of ODL, its functionality and the integration of all Financial services on the IoV at the same time as report on the fast growing price bubble, we could see an ATH that simply dwarfs everything that has ever happened before in crypto.  Private and institutional investors will simply go into a FOMO frenzy.

We are very, very early.

 

 

XRP won't dwarf BTC media spotlight, simply because the price of BTC dwarfs that of xrp from the outside and that's all people especially retail care about. 

If a bullrun comes IF and BTC is again around 20k + even if xrp would be 30$ ppl would still not care even if media talks about ODL and we all know that smart money doesn't get into FOMO easily if at all so don't expect some magic tsunami of cash flow coming from institutions they are way more resistant to FOMO then your average retailer.

I don't think xrp will get above 5$ in the next bullrun to much sell power. And ODL still needs probably 5+ years to even matter price wise. 

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7 hours ago, Molten said:

One more "interesting" chart tidbit that I noticed since @Mpolnet had me looking back at the ATH.  Look at the green weekly candles leading up to the ATH.  Look at the volume.  Declining with every green week while the candles got bigger and bigger.  And the RSI got higher and higher.  So many red flags, I wish I had been better versed in TA back then.

Great catch Molten, thanks for sharing. 

A few months after the ATH, I recall studying the history of past spikes, and noticed the 55dma was the always the retrenchment trigger point. 

That descending volume during a run up clearly signals declining sentiment. Good stuff.

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17 hours ago, Molten said:

We have given up all of the gains from the mini-parabolic that took us from $0.27 to $0.34.  I would suspect that we are going to dip a bit below the "neck" line at $0.27 and probably touch $0.265, which is the 50% fib.  It would be nice to hold this level and get a bounce, but now we are officially on a head and shoulders watch...

82KkclKj

"I would suspect that we are going to dip a bit below the "neck" line at $0.27 and probably touch $0.265"

Wrong again lol. 

 

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24 minutes ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Also, how can you have any respect for this @Molten guy. He announced his departure at 17 cents but decides to return when the market turns upwards for a few days. Pretty pathetic. 

 

25 minutes ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

"I would suspect that we are going to dip a bit below the "neck" line at $0.27 and probably touch $0.265"

Wrong again lol. 

 

Tell me why you are so negative about him? Is he's girlfriend prettier than yours?

Or might it be that you have very limited experience and knowledge on charts and investments in general and envy him?

What is it to you to try and down talk someone who puts a lot of effort in to try and add value and give insight on market development?

I evaluate each post he makes and some I gain more from than other, similar to any other person that posts here. Your posts add absolutely nothing with these remarks. Please refrain from making posts like "Wrong again. Lol". You are just making yourself look worse than you already do. If you disagree with something, give concrete and logical reasoning therefore. This can actually add value and stimulate critical evaluating thoughts and stimulate constructive conversation.

Otherwise please just leave all together if you want to be the kid.

 

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1 hour ago, RipplingAlong said:

 

Tell me why you are so negative about him? Is he's girlfriend prettier than yours?

Or might it be that you have very limited experience and knowledge on charts and investments in general and envy him?

What is it to you to try and down talk someone who puts a lot of effort in to try and add value and give insight on market development?

I evaluate each post he makes and some I gain more from than other, similar to any other person that posts here. Your posts add absolutely nothing with these remarks. Please refrain from making posts like "Wrong again. Lol". You are just making yourself look worse than you already do. If you disagree with something, give concrete and logical reasoning therefore. This can actually add value and stimulate critical evaluating thoughts and stimulate constructive conversation.

Otherwise please just leave all together if you want to be the kid.

 

He is just so bad at it...terrible infact. 

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6 minutes ago, HumphreyBear said:

Molten makes some very valid observations and it is up to each of us to use or not those points. For me, I am thankful for what he is doing, it critics think they can do better, why not share their obvious genius rather than bluntly criticise 

Agreed. And it's also for free. In most cases one has to pay for indications form TA guys.

 

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3 hours ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Also, how can you have any respect for this @Molten guy. He announced his departure at 17 cents but decides to return when the market turns upwards for a few days. Pretty pathetic. 

I am sorry @XRP_to_20dollars - it is respect for you that suffers when you make such malicious uncalled for remarks.  Molten is providing an excellent commentary that is very much appreciated by many thoughtful less hotheaded members of the forum

Edited by Julian_Williams

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2 hours ago, XRP_to_20dollars said:

Wrong again lol. 

 

It’s getting pretty old now mate.  You do realise, don’t you, that even fervent believers in TA repeatedly state that it’s just a way to lift the odds and help make a decision.  It’s only right 60% of the time in the best case.  I’m sure you’ve read that many times here.

Having someone repeatedly carp on about missed calls is pointless and annoying.

Its clear you are in a bad frame of mind for crypto...  maybe sign off for a while and enjoy a beer and a sunset for a few weeks?  Come back when you can see more clearly.  Just my unsolicited advice...   I hope things improve for you,  and for us all.

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