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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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6 minutes ago, Fidel_Castro said:

 

yes, we will go to 0.42. Then the giant fall will start down to 0.2.  Garlinghouse will make a good money as always with this rollercoaster.

Why would Garlinghouse want such a scenario and how would he make money?  This comment is just plain bitter. 

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3 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

It's interesting. XRP took two tries back to back at trying to get to $0.34 and it rejected hard both times. I wonder if it will go for a third attempt.

it will , in 2 days 

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I’m watching the prices but can I please see a chart with the RSI’s on etc please? Not got that to hand at the moment.

 

wondering whether to USDT or sell part right now. It does like parabolic but everything else has been similar for longer, we are just playing catch up and technically speaking haven’t nearly caught up

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7 minutes ago, Molten said:

Textbook TA... increasing price/bull runs are almost uniformly preceded by increasing volume.  Buyers start to come in, raising volume, but price lags as it takes time to clear out the sellers.  Then... 🔥

I agree with that. We saw that first hand today. There were some sellers waiting around the $0.34 mark. If XRP continues to hit that resistance consecutively then it will eventually break through because there will be less sellers each time it hits in theory.

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18 hours ago, Gorgalosk said:

Do you believe Tesla has the highest valued stock because it’s the most profitable or best run automaker? Speculation fuels the market, that doesn’t mean its manipulated.

Owning a share is effectively a right to future cash flow generated by the company. I view owning a digital asset as a right to interact/engage and participate on that network. As supply decreases in the crypto network you're right to engage and participate in said network grows. If someone wants to engage/participate in the network at a future date after the network has grown (in the amount of value it is facilitating) then they will have to pay more for the right the participate. 

Edited by Mpolnet

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@JASCoder - looks like there's been a drop in liquidity the last couple of days, per the below links. Does the data provide any insight into whether or not this somehow correlated with a sudden spike in price? Market makers moving to the sidelines or re-calibrating their re-balancing strategies? Maybe wash trading is having an effect on their ability to arbitrage/re-balance?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/134Likrs0FWvQosyHlx2Z6JvUhCpY1uLI1ujT9dfkhmc/edit#gid=1888946776

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11n81l3KBNEFUnx7PB7L-5ITjUjQGih9Tr7giVoDG-Wc/edit#gid=1888946776

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pZ2POpljERK-oV3rusaCmq58U2badn5i9WOCIP9Wtmg/edit#gid=1888946776

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4 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

because we have to work through all the resistance points we left on the way down, in Dec 2017 we were going up through ATH territory.  This time the vol should be several times higher than last time because the opportunity to buy into the market will be much easier for new comers.  6 billion pushed us through the major .285  point very fast.

 

I don't get this whole resistance thing.  If the price had a hard time going below let's say 0,5 cents for a period of a month does that mean that a lot of buyers are buying xrp around that price. But why would it turn into a negative resistance when it's breached. Does it mean suddenly a lot of sellers are around 0,5 cents.

 

And what if a scenario happens where it does go below 0,5C and everyone is like oh it breached it now it will most def go down, but then out of no where a person with deep pockets buys up a truckload and brings it back to 0,6 cents did that person just create a resistance?

 Same thing now, everyone says 0,33 is the resistance but what if i had 100mill xrp and i decide to dump 50 mill around 0,35 cents did i just create a resistance? But there was no resistance before? And now there suddenly is? And if the volume is high enough and people buy my 50 mill xrp and the price goes to 0,40 cents, and then it crashes back to 0,35 cents is there suddenly a positive resistance that turned from the previous negative one. 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Mpolnet said:

@JASCoder - looks like there's been a drop in liquidity the last couple of days, per the below links. Does the data provide any insight into whether or not this somehow correlated with a sudden spike in price? Market makers moving to the sidelines or re-calibrating their re-balancing strategies? Maybe wash trading is having an effect on their ability to arbitrage/re-balance?

I wish Tenitoshi hadn't called the "Liquidity Index," as this so confuses many people.
(Crypto Eri said she will address this topic soon, to try and help lol)

Maybe he should have called it... Ummm "Liquidity Projection," or "Liquidity Potential." 
Here is the text from @karstnDE fine note on this, or go read his Coil post here:
https://coil.com/p/karstnDE/Tracking-utility-on-the-XRP-Ledger-Analysis-of-tools-and-a-forecast-attempt/9xvuwpju 

Quote

The Liquidity Index - a common misunderstanding

Before we continue with a forecast attempt, I want to address a common misunderstanding regarding the Liquidity Index. People on Twitter seem to celebrate all-time highs of that Liquidity Index. But the Liquidity Index does not show ODL volume. The Liquidity Index takes four weeks of volume and volatility data and calculates the intercept point of a linear regression. That sounds complicated, so let's visualize it with an example of Saturday, February 1st.

(see his post)

What do we see? February 1st the Liquidity Index reported an all-time high with 15,006,608 XRP. On that day, the same tool reported a volume of around 10,000,000 XRP. But as you see, the Index takes four weeks of data into account. The only reason the Liquidity Index reported an all-time high at that day was because a below-average day on January 4th was not longer being considered. On February 29 the Liquidity Index will most probably jump again when the data point of February 1, which is below average, will fall out of the equation. Repeat with me: The Liquidity Index does not show daily ODL volume! And to be fair - this was also communicated by tenitoshi, but the message obviously was not clear enough.

Keep in mind that much of the market makers' capital reserves are held off books, and can only be inferred from by monitoring their behavior. The liquidity providers are playing the part of the invisible hand as far us, the great unwashed masses, know !

IMHO, It's highly likely even Ripple Labs do not know the state of the off-book reserves, as anyone really, can be a "Liquidity Provider."

Hope that helps, but WTF do I know, I'm just a coder :) 

 

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14 minutes ago, Staigera said:

 

I don't get this whole resistance thing.  If the price had a hard time going below let's say 0,5 cents for a period of a month does that mean that a lot of buyers are buying xrp around that price. But why would it turn into a negative resistance when it's breached. Does it mean suddenly a lot of sellers are around 0,5 cents.

 

And what if a scenario happens where it does go below 0,5C and everyone is like oh it breached it now it will most def go down, but then out of no where a person with deep pockets buys up a truckload and brings it back to 0,6 cents did that person just create a resistance?

 Same thing now, everyone says 0,33 is the resistance but what if i had 100mill xrp and i decide to dump 50 mill around 0,35 cents did i just create a resistance? But there was no resistance before? And now there suddenly is? And if the volume is high enough and people buy my 50 mill xrp and the price goes to 0,40 cents, and then it crashes back to 0,35 cents is there suddenly a positive resistance that turned from the previous negative one. 

 

 

Your point is valid.

The idea of a resistance is purely based on charting. If the price of XRP repeatedly approaches $0.34 and then falls then that is a "resistance point". If the opposite happens and the price repeatedly goes down to $0.10 and then goes back up then $0.10 is a resistance/support.

Resistances don't take into account a random huge buyer that moves the market or some other catalyst that causes a huge buying or selling spree.

A resistance/support is purely a way to describe what is happening on a chart.

The idea of there being 1 big buyer/seller, or many small buyers/sellers, or any combination of the two is irrelevant because you can't really prove who the buyers or sellers are in any case.

If you have millions of XRP and decide to dump the price every single time it approaches $0.35 then yes you have created a resistance. But again, doesn't matter who the buyer or seller is. The idea of a resistance means the price doesn't seem to want to go above or below a certain point.

In your scenario regarding a dumping seller, if the price repeatedly approaches your dump point and you keep taking a hose to the price to keep it down, then eventually the market will break through your resistance because you only have a limited number of XRP to do that with. That is why if resistances continue to get approached then eventually they ultimately get broken.

Edited by AlejoMoreno

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10 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

Your point is valid.

The idea of a resistance is purely based on charting. If the price of XRP repeatedly approaches $0.34 and then falls then that is a "resistance point". If the opposite happens and the price repeatedly goes down to $0.10 and then goes back up then $0.10 is a resistance/support.

Resistances don't take into account a random huge buyer that moves the market or some other catalyst that causes a huge buying or selling spree.

A resistance/support is purely a way to describe what is happening on a chart.

The idea of there being 1 big buyer/seller, or many small buyers/sellers, or any combination of the two is irrelevant because you can't really prove who the buyers or sellers are in any case.

If you have millions of XRP and decide to dump the price every single time it approaches $0.35 then yes you have created a resistance. But again, doesn't matter who the buyer or seller is. The idea of a resistance means the price doesn't seem to want to go above or below a certain point.

In your scenario regarding a dumping seller, if the price repeatedly approaches your dump point and you keep taking a hose to the price to keep it down, then eventually the market will break through your resistance because you only have a limited number of XRP to do that with. That is why if resistances continue to get approached then eventually they ultimately get broken.

I see. 

 

5 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

because we have to work through all the resistance points we left on the way down, in Dec 2017 

 

But how are resistance points left 3 years ago still a thing? Or is it just a indication that around those numbers last time were alot of sellers buyers so we assume there still are? 

 

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