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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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47 minutes ago, Molten said:

XRPUSD has crossed bullish on the weekly RSI (green circle), always a good sign and very consistently predicts for more upward movement.  On the shorter time frame, we are in an ascending triangle having tested the resistance at $0.24 several times.  Every time we tap it, it becomes more likely that we break through, and I suspect there will be a big jump once it is cleared.  I am looking for a pretty quick jump up to ~0.26 after 0.24 is cleared.

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Well, that happened rather right on queue...

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Bots have shown us the next resistance point... $0.255.  We will probably grind around a bit before retesting that area.  Currently above the 0.5 fib on this most recent run, so looking good.  We may drop down to retest the old resistance line at $0.24 before making the next move, which would be a classic R/S flip.

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And all of this happened while BTC dropped... XRPBTC having a nice little run.  Probably won't last though, since XRP doesn't seem to have any motor against BTC currently.  Both should continue to perform well against the USD pair though.

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I hypothesize that this is fueled by money flipping out of BTC SV into XRP. The green wicks are too long on the 24 chart chart to really say there is sustainable upward momentum. That indicates that a lot of the money that recently flowed into XRP is going to flip out to take profits and not stay in the market. I don't see any overarching reason for XRP to increase too much in the short term. These are clearly big lump sum movements, not a market sentiment change.

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9 minutes ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I hypothesize that this is fueled by money flipping out of BTC SV into XRP. The green wicks are too long on the 24 chart chart to really say there is sustainable upward momentum. That indicates that a lot of the money that recently flowed into XRP is going to flip out to take profits and not stay in the market. I don't see any overarching reason for XRP to increase too much in the short term. These are clearly big lump sum movements, not a market sentiment change.

Very well could be.  There is really no way to discern intent from the charts, at least that I know of.  BTCSV is definitely dumping, but XRP has been climbing since before this whole fiasco started.  Currently up around ~33% from the lows.  Enough time spent in this market has taught me a good deal of caution and skepticism, but the technicals are flipping positive for the first time in a while.  BTC still leads the pack in terms of popular sentiment and, if it keeps going up, people are going to notice and start getting excited about crypto again.  

But, I do agree that we shouldn't get carried away here.  Until we convincingly break through resistance at $0.30, there is no reason to expect a macro bull run.  Although we are coming up against the long term down trend line, currently around $0.27-0.28 depending on when we get there, and this would be a good first step to take.

Where are we now on the chart? :D  Somewhere just past Depression in my book.  If we break $0.30, then I think we can graduate to Disbelief.

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1 hour ago, Molten said:

This current run from $0.18 to $0.24 kind of feels like the previous run from $0.21 to $0.31 from September to November.  But there is a key difference this time that makes it seem more likely to be a true reversal.  Volume.

Look at the stretch from Sept to Nov.  Price increases but volume does not.  That is generally indicative of a false run.

Now look at the current run from $0.18. Volume is picking up rather substantially and is much higher than the previous stretch from the fall run.

I think we're on to something.

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So, this is the time to buy more?  I haven't bought much in the past year cause every time I bought, it went lower.  Wondering if this is finally the time to start DCAing. 

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25 minutes ago, NorCalguy said:

So, this is the time to buy more?  I haven't bought much in the past year cause every time I bought, it went lower.  Wondering if this is finally the time to start DCAing. 

It all depends on your horizon.  If you are looking for a purchase that will appreciate compared to next week, possibly not.  Conversely, if you are looking at your investment in terms of years, then yes, this would seem like an excellent opportunity to buy (caveat emptor, not financial advice, yada yada).

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56 minutes ago, NorCalguy said:

So, this is the time to buy more?  I haven't bought much in the past year cause every time I bought, it went lower.  Wondering if this is finally the time to start DCAing. 

I bought back in around .23x 

Only hold 1/3 of the bag I used to though. Got the same fears.

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39 minutes ago, Molten said:

It all depends on your horizon.  If you are looking for a purchase that will appreciate compared to next week, possibly not.  Conversely, if you are looking at your investment in terms of years, then yes, this would seem like an excellent opportunity to buy (caveat emptor, not financial advice, yada yada).

I'm looking for a purchase that will at the very least, stay above water for once.  I'm ok with $0.50 XRP at year's end.  Hopefully a nice rise to $2 sometime in the next 2 years would be nice.

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1 hour ago, NorCalguy said:

I'm looking for a purchase that will at the very least, stay above water for once.  I'm ok with $0.50 XRP at year's end.  Hopefully a nice rise to $2 sometime in the next 2 years would be nice.

Should have been .17 the latest low or if you were lucky enough under 1cent January 2017 🥰

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54 minutes ago, Trentsteel said:

Should have been .17 the latest low or if you were lucky enough under 1cent January 2017 🥰

Very difficult the catch the bottom, as it is just pure luck in most cases.  Ya, the 1 cent price was great for those who got in really early but my first buy was $1.90ish.  Yikes :(

I was actually green with it rose above $3.50  :D

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