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Charting the course of XRP


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I was participating undercover :).  The trolls became too overwhelming while XRP was in the dumps, I figure its safe to come out again.

These threads are being derailed by childish banter, could you please keep things on topic and move your chit chat elsewhere. The forum is becoming less interesting for many of us.

I really don’t understand why the forum has been getting so heated lately when we are doing SO WELL after YEARS of being in the gutter. You’d think everybody would be saying hello, good morning, how a

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9 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

It is completely unsustainable and makes no sense at this point in human history.. Sorry.

Agreed. It equals the energy output of a large nation. And, it will only get worse with more energy being used for mining. I don't personally own bitcoin so I don't feel guilty about it personally, but it's soooo bad for the planet. And then realize that most of the bitcoin wealth is concentrated in a few hands too. Quite sure satoshi didn't have this in mind. There's some crazy statistic that I can't quite remember off the top of the head, that a single bitcoin transaction uses up/equals a month's worth of energy to run an average household. 

Consensus to the rescue!

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Let's zoom out  and take a look at BTC this morning.  It's been in a downtrend since late June, and it's still in what I'd describe as an intermediate cycle downtrend. 

BTC did make a swing low two days ago on the 18th, which is a sign of a POSSIBLE reversal (although the chart still looks pretty sh!tty).

In order to have a confirmed reversal we need to get back above 8000 or so.  If we were to see that happen it COULD POSSIBLY be the start of a new intermediate cycle.

That's what I'm watching for.

Screen Shot 2019-12-20 at 7.27.36 AM.png

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 At some point BTC will blast off and will probably surprise the hell out of people to the upside.

That isn't bullsh!t, it's the most probable scenario based on the long term bitcoin cycle. But we don't know yet where the bottom will be.

Not sure what it will be that will turn BTC back up. Retail buyers are shell-shocked. Plus, the stock market bubble might be about to re-inflate. The most likely driver is the halvening, but  something will act at some point to erase all the negative sentiment that is dragging BTC down. This has been a lengthy intermediate downtrend, and at some point it will reverse. I'm fairly sure of that.

So we look for swing lows and trend line breaks, That's how we know.

Last December BTC bottomed and started a new long term cycle. It took until the 1st week in March to get a technical confirmation.

 

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Was just now pondering if 'proof of work' will ever go out of fashion. I think people associate the 'work' (energy consumption/computer calculations) associated with bitcoin as giving it value. Whereas consensus, is like 'making something out of nothing'. Why people would think like that goes quite deep. We've been conditioned in modern society to think that work is, above all else, the most important and noble thing in life. Not just that, it's the very purpose of it. Don't have a job? Loser. Work as a slave for minimum wage and have absolutely no life? Acceptable, respect. 

It's actually an unnatural condition for humans... modern day society. We've only really had this kind of culture for 0.0001% of human history (going as far back as 'humans' have existed). Not gonna go into a rant about it (tempting!) but TLDR: we associate work with success, meaning. Consensus is like the hippy who is a free thinker and just lives. Sad state of affairs but it is now deeply embedded in our culture. Biologically our brains haven't changed in 100k years, yet now it's expected and OK to spend your life flipping burgers and you will be respected for it. That's the root of almost all metal health issues (societal expectations/demands, versus no change in our innate brain structure (but that's tangential to the point)).

So, I think proof of work will never go out of fashion... people will think it gives bitcoin value. It's work! Yay, bring on 2030 when 5% of global energy consumption is BTC mining. 

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1 hour ago, baobeiiiii said:

Was just now pondering if 'proof of work' will ever go out of fashion. I think people associate the 'work' (energy consumption/computer calculations) associated with bitcoin as giving it value. Whereas consensus, is like 'making something out of nothing'. Why people would think like that goes quite deep. We've been conditioned in modern society to think that work is above all else the most important and noble thing in life. Don't have a job? Loser. Work as a slave for minimum wage and have absolutely no life? Acceptable, respect. 

It's actually an unnatural condition for humans... modern day society. We've only really had this kind of culture for 0.0001% of human history (going as far back as 'humans' have existed). Not gonna go into a rant about it (tempting!) but TLDR: we associate work with success, meaning. Consensus is like the hippy who is a free thinker and just lives. Sad state of affairs but it is now deeply embedded in our culture. Biologically our brains haven't changed in 100k years, yet now it's expected and OK to spend your life flipping burgers and you will be respected for it. That's the root of almost all metal health issues (but that's tangential to the point).

So, I think proof of work will never go out of fashion... people will innately think it gives bitcoin value. Yay, bring on 2030 when 5% of global energy consumption is BTC mining. 

I think there is definitely something to that psychological perspective.  But given the current headlong run into the limits of industrial civilization......burgeoning population, finite cheap energy, and deteriorating climate, I expect that even BTC will have to fork into a different consensus  mechanism.

But that's my macro outlook, and I don't trade much on macro. It's a formula for failure, most of the time.

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I think I was 13 when my biology teacher gave us a jar filled with sugar and a few ants. The task: to monitor the population and outcome. Experiment doesn't end well for that ecosystem.

Wouldn't expect anyone to try to make money on the hope/bet that the ants decide to cut back on their consumption and save their world (the jar). Easter Island is a great example of the same thing but with humans. There's a fantastic book about that but can't recall the name.

Making money and protecting Earth don't really go hand in hand. But, XRP is about as guilt-free as it gets. 

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2 minutes ago, baobeiiiii said:

I think I was 13 when my biology teacher gave us a jar filled with sugar and a few ants. The task: to monitor the population and outcome. Experiment doesn't end well for that ecosystem.

Wouldn't expect anyone to try to make money on the hope that the ants decide to cut back on their consumption and save their world (the jar). Easter Island is a great example of the same thing but with humans. There's a fantastic book about that but can't recall the name. Making money and protecting Earth don't really go hand in hand. But, XRP is about as guilt-free as it gets. 

There are many great books on this subject, but the one most people know about is Collapse by Jared Diamond.

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Hi all, not TA, but I just popped in to Fiat Leak site and saw some interesting action... within 5 minutes there were large buy orders (you can set it to see only buys :D) and all these currencies are making big buys:

MXN - Mexican peso

GBP - British Pound

KRW - Korean Won

TRY - Turkish Lira

JPY - Japanese Yen

THB - Thai Baht
AUD - Australian dollar

USD - USA

CAD - Canadian dollar

EUR - Euro

Have a great holiday season! :preved:  :Laie_16:

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