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Charting the course of XRP


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1 hour ago, dr_ed said:

I think I'll just make a laundry list. No time for a polished post today. First the chart stuff.

 

1. Alts moon one at a time, but they fall together, as a result of Bitcoin dominance.

2. Mistrust Alt/USD charts and trust Alt/BTC charts, as a rule (unless the volume is high for alt/USD).

3. Bots and algos dominate the crypto market, especially in times of low volume, and they screw up our TA.

4. Bots have long memories for pivots. Bots understand Fib levels.

5. Bots often leave long wicks, which are important to consider. Shooting star candles are usually a bad sign, bots or no bots.

6.Drawing conclusions about near term moves from long term charts is risky business I crypto.

I'm sure there are several more. I'll add more later if I can think of any.

7. Bots are less dominant when retail buyers come out in force. So they dominate more in these down phases when interest is low in Bitcoin.

 

Congrats:  This is a really excellent summary, it should be posted at the top of the thread.

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I was participating undercover :).  The trolls became too overwhelming while XRP was in the dumps, I figure its safe to come out again.

There are actually several lawyers in the crypto space who have analysed the case extremely closely explaining how the case will likely play out. Given that these lawyers are either BTC or ETH maxis a

These threads are being derailed by childish banter, could you please keep things on topic and move your chit chat elsewhere. The forum is becoming less interesting for many of us.

37 minutes ago, ripplewaytogo said:

Hate the fact XRP is following BTC everywhere, my husband said I should buy some BTC now in a very sarcastic way!

Well screw his................A lady needs to keep her cool!

Got to love a woman with spirit.

He's a lucky man, I expect.

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On a scale of 1-10, my TA analysis has gone up from a 1 up to a 2.  Still weak overall, but that's 100% improvement.  Who else can say that? 

Supports, triangles, shooting stars/hammers rolling from the top/bottom moves, flags + pendants, big price action with volume vs fake outs, I-clouds, Awesome oscillators, moving averages, Elliot waves - all of which there is some degree of familiarity no matter how small the understanding is.  Couldn't say that prior, thanks in part to this thread.

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I decided that rather than focus on mistakes I see people make on their crypto portfolios, I'd take  the high road and just talk about my ideas about how to trade.

If you never want to trade and never have to trade, that's fine.

Personally, I have sometimes gotten my ass in a crack and have had to to trade my way out of it. I have also had the sobering experience of having  lost a small fortune as a result of my own bad trading decisions. This is an incomplete list of things I learned along the way. I encourage any of you good guys to add to this list or to totally destroy me with your excellent critiques.  Trolls, on the other hand,  will be viciously flamed.

 

 Dr. Ed's Top Ten Rules for Trading  

(props to my mentors Jesse Livermore, Walter Bressert, Rainman, Bob Loukas, Peter Navarro, and Alan Brochstein.....and others I have forgotten.)

Some possible trading rules to consider....... for those who might be inclined to trade high volatility assets. (Every decent trader has rules they follow. These happen to be mine. Make your own, these are offered as a starting point only. Not financial advice. I am not by my nature a trader. I can trade, however, to save my skin.) 

1. The trend is your friend. Try to always trade in markets that are trending. If you don't go short (and I never do) then you will probably do better to stay mostly in cash for markets or assets that are clearly in a corrective phase. ( Example: XRP in 2019.)  

2. Markets tend to move in waves. There are short, medium and long term trends to consider for most risk assets. At  any given time it is good to know where you are in each of these cycles. Counting cycles, noting reversals and drawing trend lines is how you figure that out. But often you already know......if you just think about it.

Bitcoin now, for instance.

Without  drawing anything I can tell you that the long term BTC trend is up,  and the medium and short term trends are down. We had a reversal in the short term trend  today. But until we get back up through the descending trend line, it is not confirmed. (And we have not).

3. In a market in an uptrend, identify coins you like, based on both technicals and fundamentals  and buy them on weakness, not on strength. Avoid chasing momentum. If it broke out yesterday and it's up 50% today, that probably isn't the best time to enter. That only works when markets are nearing tops. (Example: entire crypto market in late 2017).

4.In volatile markets trending in your favor.......take profits along the way. Buy the dips and sell the rips. Sell enough to cover your cost basis first. After that, you should still pay attention and sell confirmed tops. (Example: entire crypto market in 2018).

5. Cut your losers and let your winners run. Never fall in love with an asset. Not even XRP. 

6. Average in on your entries. Resist the temptation to make one huge buy into a position. In rare cases, it might make sense to go all in on a breakout, but most of the time  it doesn't make sense. Use discipline.

7. If you buy on the exchanges always use limit orders to buy.. Generally it's better to use market orders to sell, especially near tops.

8. Be very careful with leverage and derivatives. Leverage can make you rich or it wipe you out before you know it. Trust me on this one and don't ask how I know. Professional traders use leverage leverage routinely...but they know how to manage their risk. If risk management is a subject you haven't studied, then you have no business trading options, futures, leveraged ETF's or borrowing money to buy or sell short in the crypto market. EOM.

9. Always plan for paying your silent partner, the government. Especially the US government.  They don't care if all the money you made trading last year is now gone and that's why you can't pay your income tax. Governments are predatory institutions cleverly designed to take wealth from struggling risk takers and redistribute it between the very rich and the very poor. Guess who gets more?  (RIP Joe Stack).

10. Paper and digital assets can be an excellent  means to create wealth...but wealth is usually best preserved in what are known as tangible assets. Gold, houses, farm land, oil wells...that sort of thing. I try to make money in paper markets and crypto markets and then turn that into tangible assets, preferably ones that flow cash.( Some examples of tangible sets that might not be so good.......Lamborghini automobiles, yachts, airplanes, jewelry, and fancy wrist watches.)

 

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26 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

I decided that rather than focus on mistakes I see people make on their crypto portfolios, I'd take  the high road and just talk about my ideas about how to trade.

If you never want to trade and never have to trade, that's fine.

Personally, I have sometimes gotten my ass in a crack and have had to to trade my way out of it. I have also had the sobering experience of having  lost a small fortune as a result of my own bad trading decisions. This is an incomplete list of things I learned along the way. I encourage any of you good guys to add to this list or to totally destroy me with your excellent critiques.  Trolls, on the other hand,  will be viciously flamed.

 

 Dr. Ed's Top Ten Rules for Trading  

(props to my mentors Jesse Livermore, Walter Bressert, Rainman, Bob Loukas, Peter Navarro, and Alan Brochstein.....and others I have forgotten.)

Some possible trading rules to consider....... for those who might be inclined to trade high volatility assets. (Every decent trader has rules they follow. These happen to be mine. Make your own, these are offered as a starting point only. Not financial advice. I am not by my nature a trader. I can trade, however, to save my skin.) 

1. The trend is your friend. Try to always trade in markets that are trending. If you don't go short (and I never do) then you will probably do better to stay mostly in cash for markets or assets that are clearly in a corrective phase. ( Example: XRP in 2019.)  

2. Markets tend to move in waves. There are short, medium and long term trends to consider for most risk assets. At  any given time it is good to know where you are in each of these cycles. Counting cycles, noting reversals and drawing trend lines is how you figure that out. But often you already know......if you just think about it.

Bitcoin now, for instance.

Without  drawing anything I can tell you that the long term BTC trend is up,  and the medium and short term trends are down. We had a reversal in the short term trend  today. But until we get back up through the descending trend line, it is not confirmed. (And we have not).

3. In a market in an uptrend, identify coins you like, based on both technicals and fundamentals  and buy them on weakness, not on strength. Avoid chasing momentum. If it broke out yesterday and it's up 50% today, that probably isn't the best time to enter. That only works when markets are nearing tops. (Example: entire crypto market in late 2017).

4.In volatile markets trending in your favor.......take profits along the way. Buy the dips and sell the rips. Sell enough to cover your cost basis first. After that, you should still pay attention and sell confirmed tops. (Example: entire crypto market in 2018).

5. Cut your losers and let your winners run. Never fall in love with an asset. Not even XRP. 

6. Average in on your entries. Resist the temptation to make one huge buy into a position. In rare cases, it might make sense to go all in on a breakout, but most of the time  it doesn't make sense. Use discipline.

7. If you buy on the exchanges always use limit orders to buy.. Generally it's better to use market orders to sell, especially near tops.

8. Be very careful with leverage and derivatives. Leverage can make you rich or it wipe you out before you know it. Trust me on this one and don't ask how I know. Professional traders use leverage leverage routinely...but they know how to manage their risk. If risk management is a subject you haven't studied, then you have no business trading options, futures, leveraged ETF's or borrowing money to buy or sell short in the crypto market. EOM.

9. Always plan for paying your silent partner, the government. Especially the US government.  They don't care if all the money you made trading last year is now gone and that's why you can't pay your income tax. Governments are predatory institutions cleverly designed to take wealth from struggling risk takers and redistribute it between the very rich and the very poor. Guess who gets more?  (RIP Joe Stack).

10. Paper and digital assets can be an excellent  means to create wealth...but wealth is usually best preserved in what are known as tangible assets. Gold, houses, farm land, oil wells...that sort of thing. I try to make money in paper markets and crypto markets and then turn that into tangible assets, preferably ones that flow cash.( Some examples of tangible sets that might not be so good.......Lamborghini automobiles, yachts, airplanes, jewelry, and fancy wrist watches.)

 

Another point to consider for cryptocurrency would be: “Don’t depend on the price of the asset to reflect the perceived value or utility of the asset.”

You’re better off using trends, etc. than to purchase an asset because of its utility. I’m sure XRP has burned a lot of people’s money because they bought into it, thinking the price would follow the news, only to buy into a drawn out downtrend.

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Just now, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

You got to love crypto❤️

10% down, 10% up, all assets tied together,    without any news.  Which algo is this? 

That’s the only way to have any green in this market. The only way XRP will be +10% is if it vomits -10% first. I wish I had a lot of capital and could’ve timed that one right.

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