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Charting the course of XRP


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I was participating undercover :).  The trolls became too overwhelming while XRP was in the dumps, I figure its safe to come out again.

There are actually several lawyers in the crypto space who have analysed the case extremely closely explaining how the case will likely play out. Given that these lawyers are either BTC or ETH maxis a

These threads are being derailed by childish banter, could you please keep things on topic and move your chit chat elsewhere. The forum is becoming less interesting for many of us.

2 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Just fyi- we are not "allowing" this kind of stuff, and don't like disruptive posts to an otherwise calm thread anymore than you do.  Me especially!  But we do have a protocol to go through in cases such as this, and warnings have been issued continuously, until specific individuals are given a timeout to think about how they would like to interact on this forum.  Also, fyi you are nowhere near getting banned DrEd, but a warning was issued in that one case where you chewed the guy up with some very very colorful language!   As soon as we catch this stuff we address it I know that.  Too much time has been spent over that the past few weeks/months on just this, it's a drag, and that's why we don't get visits from specific individuals any longer (btw).  Trying to be fair, but also respond to what are very reasonable concerns, I know.  New ones always slip in, and do get warned before banned unless they violate egregiously.  Thanks for hanging in there.  Sometimes hard to keep up.

 

Thanks for saying. I do appreciate how hard it is to moderate a forum. I've been there. I think these trolls need to be rooted out like weeds or they get out of control. I want them to give this particular thread a pass. They will eventually......if I'm allowed to stay here.

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9 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Just fyi- we are not "allowing" this kind of stuff, and don't like disruptive posts to an otherwise calm thread anymore than you do.  Me especially!  But we do have a protocol to go through in cases such as this, and warnings have been issued continuously, until specific individuals are given a timeout to think about how they would like to interact on this forum.  Also, fyi you are nowhere near getting banned DrEd, but a warning was issued in that one case where you chewed the guy up with some very very colorful language!   As soon as we catch this stuff we address it I know that.  Too much time has been spent over that the past few weeks/months on just this, it's a drag, and that's why we don't get visits from specific individuals any longer (btw).  Trying to be fair, but also respond to what are very reasonable concerns, I know.  New ones always slip in, and do get warned before banned unless they violate egregiously.  Thanks for hanging in there.  Sometimes hard to keep up.

 

Thanks for taking the time to clarify!

Also thank you for volunteering your time as I know it’s time consuming.

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4 minutes ago, Raekwon said:

Do whatever you want man, just saying there’s Trolls everywhere.. if that’s what makes you happy though then do what you gotta do.

I know all about trolls. This thread here is a troll-free zone, most of the time. I'd really like to keep it that way.

Your posts are always welcome. I appreciate your POV and your contribution to this thread and many others. Sorry I went off.

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14 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

I'm on a mission to get him and his very trollish appearing posts off this thread. Either he goes or I get banned, it looks like. And I don't much care at this point. I don't want to participate on a forum where moderators allow this kind of stuff. It isn't fair to the people who come here with the intention of putting up their content for discussion.

I don't recall anyone who posts here regularly ever trying to persuade any reader to follow their TA calls or make any particular trades or make their own personal investment decisions on TA.....ever....

I got a warning point for calling him out before, and I'm pissed that he can spew his vitriol and get away with it while I get nailed for calling him out. That's what passes for moderation on this site, apparently

I won't say what I'd like to say....because its been made clear that my crude but honest remarks won't be tolerated......However, I won't give him the satisfaction of shutting me up. 

 

 

 

Hey @dr_ed, don't get banned. You and @Molten contribute valuable content and we would lose a lot of your TA insights !  Besides this is also one of my favourite threads that I often lurk in .. not that I act on any actionable events here, but I just find it  interesting to look at the state of things in the crypto verse.  As I said before, I'm on the XRP train for the long haul (which for me means forever.. until something better comes along) because I have a firm belief that this is the future of value store/transfer which will unbound us from having to tie up value in inflationary central bank currencies..

FWIW, this is my current allocation .. but looking to add to the alts that I think look promising though.

image.png.22d163d360f3793c2388b72a23596e3d.png

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22 minutes ago, Xill said:

Friends i have a question

If XRP will be widely adopted, it will gain trust, next step will be accumulation as it has finite supply then, price will sky rocket. What if ripple give the escrow to the US Treasury so they will be able to control the system if things will get out of control? Does this make any sense or I'm talking bullshit?

Lots of stuff to unpack here. Short version, we're not anywhere close to anything like that happening, even though some of us would be happy to see something along these lines occur eventually. Too much resistance by entrenched powerful interests with an interest in maintaining the failing stats quo.

It's not that it couldn't happen, but it doesn't look likely in the short run, to me anyway.

More hopium than reality.

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28 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

Lots of stuff to unpack here. Short version, we're not anywhere close to anything like that happening, even though some of us would be happy to see something along these lines occur eventually. Too much resistance by entrenched powerful interests with an interest in maintaining the failing stats quo.

It's not that it couldn't happen, but it doesn't look likely in the short run, to me anyway.

More hopium than reality.

Yep. Everyone can see we are far away from this but as Brad said mile 2/21 (is it 21?)

If XRP succeed Ripple will have way too much power so this theory make's sense. All the connections, everything fits to this theory

 

Yet we have to remember it's just a theory not a fact

 

For now they are building the foundations of ODL in order for xRapid to become the next gen swift. Step A was building ripplenet. Now we are at stage B. Building ODL  & Regulations (It seems like they are not worried about regulations. I wonder if it says something about our theory) Stage C is mass adoption of ODL (If it ever happens) Stage D: Lambo?

 

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45 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Just fyi- we are not "allowing" this kind of stuff, and don't like disruptive posts to an otherwise calm thread anymore than you do.  Me especially!  But we do have a protocol to go through in cases such as this, and warnings have been issued continuously, until specific individuals are given a timeout to think about how they would like to interact on this forum.  Also, fyi you are nowhere near getting banned DrEd, but a warning was issued in that one case where you chewed the guy up with some very very colorful language!   As soon as we catch this stuff we address it I know that.  Too much time has been spent over that the past few weeks/months on just this, it's a drag, and that's why we don't get visits from specific individuals any longer (btw).  Trying to be fair, but also respond to what are very reasonable concerns, I know.  New ones always slip in, and do get warned before banned unless they violate egregiously.  Thanks for hanging in there.  Sometimes hard to keep up.

 

This got me thinking - maybe I should start a giveaway campaign for those who continuously come here to post about how XRP is going to zero. Those of you who fall in this category clearly think XRP is worthless so I'd like to propose sending me your XRP (free of charge). You might be wondering what you gain out of this? Well in the highly likely scenario you're right :sarcastic: then you get to tell me "I TOLD YOU SO" for the rest of my life while poor old me gets to hold your worthless XRP and watch it go to zero . Mods let me know if this giveaway is within the guidelines of the forum and let the giving begin!:rofl:

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OK, I'll pick up where I left off last.  In my last few posts, I was watching a falling wedge for BTC and a descending, broadening wedge for XRP.  For those keeping track, I did openly acknowledge the possibility that we could dip down to $0.18-0.19 level and test the bottom of the channel but I didn't feel that we would go any lower.  I still don't, but there is a bit of a falling knife deal here right now.  Could wick lower but we have run into a pretty strong support range (the bottom of the two support/resistance bands on my chart).

The pattern is still very much intact for XRP and actually has gained further validity given the bounce off of the lower trend line that we are currently seeing.  I will note that the bottom line can be drawn with many slightly different iterations and thus is not a hard line itself, but more of a range.  The fact that we wicked below is not itself a problem, but if we move substantially below it, the pattern likely becomes invalidated.

As my new friend @googo has rightly pointed out, we have never been so oversold on the RSI.  I agree with him that this is very likely a good entry point.  However, I must point out that I do find it humorous that he thought that me calling the bottom around $0.21 was recklessly endangering everyone here, while he calls $0.185 now a good entry point.  Because I am sure the difference between those two entry points will make the difference between Bezos and a hobo.  But i digress...

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BTC didn't get hit as hard.  It was trending along an important fib level and then finally fell through, but the falling wedge is very much in play.  We have dipped into a support band and it held nicely.  If we break below it, the next stop is $5000-5500, but, again, this doesn't seem as likely to me.  If my wedge pattern is correct, then we could see $6200ish to test the bottom trend line, but I would expect a bounce up from there.  

Not as oversold on the RSI as XRP, but still oversold.  I would be surprised if we fell substantially from here, but I could see us grinding along this support zone for a while before more action.

One final point I would make... it is very common for big moves to retrace somewhere between 1/3-2/3 of the move (mean usually around 1/2).  If you look at the fibs (which are just an easy, painless way to chart retracement ratios - no magic here), you can see we've retraced right around 2/3 of the move up from $3000 to $14000.  If we are indeed in an ongoing bull market, this would make a very reasonable and technically sensible place to stop and turn back up. But, its crypto, so who the f*ck knows :rolleyes:

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On 12/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, KevClem said:

 

 

image.thumb.png.26f6e7c2876fe33df250ce4530805b2f.png

This chart is proving quite accurate. Glad to have sold, down in fiat but if I bought back in have substantially increased my stack. Waiting for sub .10 tho. That seems real far from here but there's F all new money coming in, bitcoin longs are way too high. Bitcoin down to at least 5500 with xrp at least .13

Bitcoin down to 3000, xrp sub .10. At that point need to reevaluate the entire market.

Edited by baobeiiiii
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10 hours ago, dr_ed said:

Lots of stuff to unpack here. Short version, we're not anywhere close to anything like that happening, even though some of us would be happy to see something along these lines occur eventually. Too much resistance by entrenched powerful interests with an interest in maintaining the failing stats quo.

It's not that it couldn't happen, but it doesn't look likely in the short run, to me anyway.

More hopium than reality.

People keep talking about the US treasury adopting XRP or taking over from Ripple and I think that is a pipe dream. The USA won't even upgrade their electricity grid.

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4 hours ago, baobeiiiii said:

This chart is proving quite accurate. Glad to have sold, down in fiat but if I bought back in have substantially increased my stack. Waiting for sub .10 tho. That seems real far from here but there's F all new money coming in, bitcoin longs are way too high. Bitcoin down to at least 5500 with xrp at least .13

Bitcoin down to 3000, xrp sub .10. At that point need to reevaluate the entire market.

You're entitled to your opinion, but this isn't a chart. It's a joke. A joke making fun of TA and this thread.

Go make a joke thread. Or post a real chart backing up your pessimism. This is a TA thread

TA is an art and a science.

I already know I'll be out long before BTC 3K, and I know that because the BTC cycle will have failed and become a left translated failed cycle. I know that because TA will tell me.

I am at less than 10% of a full XRP position right now because TA told me to sell and cut my losses.

Half the  people who come to this thread have already gone to Trading View and read all the amateur TA posters there, and so even though they show up here and bash the thread, they are really just talking somebody else's TA POV. They get what they're saying from  some TA guy with a negative outlook. Those people are always out there.

 Whatever you think you  know, you didn't learn it from the guy who posted that silly graphic. And posting that here again is not helpful. You're feeding a troll, in my opinion.

Do you understand?

 

Edited by dr_ed
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Let's look at some real evidence and stop whining and bitching.

This is the XRP monthly, all the way back to Sept. 2015. I think this is the chart that some here (you know who you are) use to predict a breakout for XRP in 2021. This chart does support that outlook, in my opinion.

I posted this because the predictions people are making are just guesses lately. Will we go to .10? Will we go to .06?

What does the chart say?

First, this is the XRP/BTC chart, because that is the only chart I'd remotely trust to draw any kind of conclusions for a long term chart.

You can see that we have now had a 100% retrace off the Dec 2017 bottom. I think the support here is pretty good.

So I am buying XRP here. Do I know it won't go down more? No, I do not.

Is it fairly probable we hold here, at least for a while?

Yes, I think that is more likely than not.

If not, where is the next support?

We only have one more level of measurable support on this chart. That is down around the 3 sat level. It also looks like decent support. If that fails this chart doesn't tell us where we go. And finding the few charts that go back further probably won't tell us much, imho. My guess is if this level fails XRP could easily go sub-penny, imho. No telling how low it goes. It won't matter to me. I will be long gone.

 

298112013_ScreenShot2019-12-18at7_26_11AM.thumb.png.adb7ea8a3275363b8c24d25157d3be9e.png

Edited by dr_ed
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