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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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On 12/11/2019 at 5:08 PM, Molten said:

I think now is a good time to take a break from watching the price.  I am not looking for a big bounce anytime soon and I am finding the constant price checking to make it more difficult to stay within my investment plan, which is to hold for 5 years from my initial purchase price.  By that point (2022-2023), XRP will most likely either be valueless or have appreciated quite significantly.  Watching the oscillations until that point serves no real purpose as a non-trader.  Part of my purpose in teaching myself TA was to identify good potential exit points, but we are currently nowhere near a price that would necessitate an exit plan.

So, I think I am going to check out of the forum for a while.  I will be hodling all the way and I may check in from time to time to see how everyone is doing, but I want to distance myself from the day to day price action.

Thanks to everyone who has contributed (positively) to this thread.  I hope when I return every so often that the thread is still alive and humming, along with the other magnificent contributions from this community.  

Best to everyone and good luck to all.  

Finally the capitulation post I've been waiting from you @Molten. It took 233 pages of nothingness for you to come to your senses. You've probably hurt more people than you helped with your posts unfortunately. The sad thing is, once XRP goes up 5% you'll be right back here with your hopium making your next prediction. 

 

Edited by googo

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2 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

Half of those are probably throw away accounts where the person comes, spews garbage, and then never comes back again. With that user name at least.

Yes I am fairly sure that is the case...  and that some of the current crop are either paid or have a visceral hatred of Ripple.  They try and dial it back so they don’t get banned immediately but after a while their true colours show through.

Others are just a holes in general.   :) 

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3 hours ago, Trentsteel said:

You and a handful of others does not make up the community on XRP chat, and him choosing to ignore other members doesn’t constitute banning, and with that let’s keep things in perspective 🤓

I was clearly joking, but I get you would be in no mood for laughter given the price of XRP.

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14 hours ago, googo said:

Finally the capitulation post I've been waiting from you @Molten. It took 233 pages of nothingness for you to come to your senses. You've probably hurt more people than you helped with your posts unfortunately. The sad thing is, once XRP goes up 5% you'll be right back here with your hopium making your next prediction. 

 

Molten is no more responsible for hurting anyone than you are for helping anyone, which is to say, not at all. Each of us is responsible for our own financial decisions. Posting charts is simply observing what is going on. 

I don't buy your concerned, condescending POV. If you think posting charts is of little value (or hurts the herd of followers who make bad decisions as a result) , don't waste your time or mine coming here to express your schadenfreude. 

Unlike me, I know @Molten to be a long term hodlr who never sells XRP.....his  primary interest in posting charts was/is to figure out his potential exit strategy if and when XRP makes some real gains. I use charts to decide when to cut my losses. It's been extremely beneficial to me to follow this thread.

I like to back out at times like this and look at the weekly. You can see that we had a bottom the week of 9-2 and started what looked (and still looks, fwiw) to be a new long term uptrend. On the week of 10-21 the trend stalled out, and we corrected  and now XRP is making a new base. 

When we stalled out, the good gains XRP had been making against BTC throughout September and early October stopped. If you look at the BTC chart, you can see evidence that the whales sold XRP and bought BTC back on the week of 10-21...but it failed to break out and it's in a short term downtrend....which is weighing on XRP price.

The pattern I want to see....is a rising BTC and a rising XRP. That's the only environment that has been favorable for XRP to do much this whole year.

Those who say that XRP is going nowhere until BTC makes a new ATH are oversimplifying the situation, although that scenario would no doubt be good for XRP price, imho.

The biggest  risk for XRP hodlrs here imho is not more waterfall drops......it is lost opportunity in a market where other alts are currently starting to finally look much better technically. 

1090759854_ScreenShot2019-12-13at7_43_23AM.thumb.png.2a69fd635c1cbf8bca29973636b67a31.png

 

I won't post charts here for XTZ or VET or anything else unless someone asks me, but I would be happy to post and talk about any coin of interest to anyone. My opinions are just my opinions. But I like technical analysis, and I don't plan to stop using it or posting charts.

Do you own DD. Make your own decisions. Ignore TA if that blows your skirt up. Fine with me,

I consider XRP to be in a decent zone to accumulate, and I am buying in small bites and building my stack again. But right now I am over 50% VET and over 30% XTZ. I am at full bags on VET but still adding XTZ. 

Currently I am out of BTC pretty much completely. In addition to XRP and the coins I already mentioned, I also am holding small positions in  TKY, XDCE. and SHA.

I have a medium stack of Nexo, which I hold both for the steady dividend and because it's one of the very most undervalued coins in all of crypto in my opinion (which is based on fundies, not TA).

 

Screen Shot 2019-12-13 at 8.03.50 AM.png

Edited by dr_ed

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2 hours ago, dr_ed said:

Molten is no more responsible for hurting anyone than you are for helping anyone, which is to say, not at all. Each of us is responsible for our own financial decisions. Posting charts is simply observing what is going on. 

I don't buy your concerned, condescending POV. If you think posting charts is of little value (or hurts the herd of followers who make bad decisions as a result) , don't waste your time or mine coming here to express your schadenfreude. 

Unlike me, I know @Molten to be a long term hodlr who never sells XRP.....his  primary interest in posting charts was/is to figure out his potential exit strategy if and when XRP makes some real gains. I use charts to decide when to cut my losses. It's been extremely beneficial to me to follow this thread.

I like to back out at times like this and look at the weekly. You can see that we had a bottom the week of 9-2 and started what looked (and still looks, fwiw) to be a new long term uptrend. On the week of 10-21 the trend stalled out, and we corrected  and now XRP is making a new base. 

When we stalled out, the good gains XRP had been making against BTC throughout September and early October stopped. If you look at the BTC chart, you can see evidence that the whales sold XRP and bought BTC back on the week of 10-21...but it failed to break out and it's in a short term downtrend....which is weighing on XRP price.

The pattern I want to see....is a rising BTC and a rising XRP. That's the only environment that has been favorable for XRP to do much this whole year.

Those who say that XRP is going nowhere until BTC makes a new ATH are oversimplifying the situation, although that scenario would no doubt be good for XRP price, imho.

The biggest  risk for XRP hodlrs here imho is not more waterfall drops......it is lost opportunity in a market where other alts are currently starting to finally look much better technically. 

1090759854_ScreenShot2019-12-13at7_43_23AM.thumb.png.2a69fd635c1cbf8bca29973636b67a31.png

 

I won't post charts here for XTZ or VET or anything else unless someone asks me, but I would be happy to post and talk about any coin of interest to anyone. My opinions are just my opinions. But I like technical analysis, and I don't plan to stop using it or posting charts.

Do you own DD. Make your own decisions. Ignore TA if that blows your skirt up. Fine with me,

I consider XRP to be in a decent zone to accumulate, and I am buying in small bites and building my stack again. But right now I am over 50% VET and over 30% XTZ. I am at full bags on VET but still adding XTZ. 

Currently I am out of BTC pretty much completely. In addition to XRP and the coins I already mentioned, I also am holding small positions in  TKY, XDCE. and SHA.

I have a medium stack of Nexo, which I hold both for the steady dividend and because it's one of the very most undervalued coins in all of crypto in my opinion (which is based on fundies, not TA).

 

Screen Shot 2019-12-13 at 8.03.50 AM.png

Thanks @dr_ed. You and @Molten provide excellent contributions in this chat on the sentiment of the current market.  I for one find value in what you both do.  I'm not a trader but find it interesting how you two analyze the ups and downs of the various coins. I focus only on long term fundamentals and not the daily ups and downs but you have given me pause to think about other alts and the value they bring.  My take is that if others don't find that value, they should just either stay away or don't comment. It makes no sense they would derive a sense of joy or whatever emotion they feel when others "capitulate".. not that @Molten is actually doing that anyway.

On another aside, what are the alts that you think have promising fundamentals and your reasoning behind that (aside from XRP and those from the momentum driven crowd).

Thanks.

Edited by richxrp

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I don’t know why anybody is bothered by TA. I don’t think anyone with common sense that posts those charts believe it to be some magic bullet, but what is? We could discuss utility as well as other factors and it still is speculation, nothing is assured. At the end of the day, we are ALL speculating, so why does it matter if it’s charting or by discussing other observations? As long as it’s not completely irrational blabber, I don’t see any issue with it. Carry on with your charts, triangles and all of that. I’m no analyst, but I sure enjoy and value all of your input. :)

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16 minutes ago, richxrp said:

Thanks @dr_ed. You and @Molten provide excellent contributions in this chat on the sentiment of the current market.  I for one find value in what you both do.  I'm not a trader but find it interesting how you two analyze the ups and downs of the various coins. I focus only on long term fundamentals and not the daily ups and downs but you have given me pause to think about other alts and the value they bring.  My take is that if others don't find that value, they should just either stay away or don't comment. It makes no sense they would derive a sense of joy or whatever emotion they feel when others "capitulate".. not that @Molten is actually doing that anyway.

On another aside, what are the alts that you think have promising fundamentals and your reasoning behind that (aside from XRP and those from the momentum driven crowd).

Thanks.

First, there are far more projects with decent fundamentals than I have money to invest. If I were a BTC whale I'd take a shotgun approach....but since I'm not I have to pick and choose....and in this year of struggling alts, I have cut coins from my portfolio that I still like. Cardano is one and KCS and TRX are others that I had to ruthlessly cut....., and XRP is another I've cut some, although I never like to NOT have a bag of XRP.

VET has the best fundamentals in crypto other than XRP, imho. The number of heavy hitting corporate and government clients who are getting ready to build something on the VeChain blockchain is long and impressive.

Nexo to me is like owning a dividend stock  when most of your assets are in tech companies....its a safe hodl with a good, dependable dividend. And it's very cheap by my metrics. One of the cheapest coins of all,  in BTC corrected price. 

I just got into SHA because they are developing encrypted hardware devices for enhanced security and retrievability of private keys.....so our heirs won't lose our crypto assets if we die suddenly...that's an oversimplification of the use case, but I just bought their device and other people on this site have too. I am planning to be using it soon in the beta testing phase. I see this as an important market niche, especially useful for anyone with a big crypto portfolio to manage. It becomes a nightmare to track, and we've all read stories about lost keys and lost crypto. SHA is built on the VeChain (VET) blockchain.

I like the fundamentals of everything I hodl, but I put far less of my capital into low market cap lesser known projects. If you want more info about anything I'm doing, pm me. I post what I'm doing to share my ideas, not to do anyone else's due diligence or recommend any crypto. I am not a financial advisor or an expert on blockchain. Good luck to everybody and may all hodlrs win big.

 

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13 hours ago, dr_ed said:
On 12/13/2019 at 10:53 AM, googo said:

Finally the capitulation post I've been waiting from you @Molten.

Molten is no more responsible for hurting anyone than you are for helping anyone, which is to say, not at all. Each of us is responsible for our own financial decisions. Posting charts is simply observing what is going on. 

Well said Doc.  These type of posters are as welcome as a turd in the swimming pool.  Whinging moaners who are debits on the ledger. Their false piety is sickening.  

Phew...   that’s a fair bit further than I normally go but it felt good.    :) 

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8 hours ago, yxxyun said:

20191213204057Z8VO.jpg.061895146c92b42aef266795ed6c0e71.jpg

It's funny how Bitcoin has performed the best this year and everyone is constantly "blaming Bitcoin" for pulling down the market.

The question isn't if Bitcoin is going to get to its ATH. The question is what is the rest of the market going to do in the meantime leading up to that and after that.

Edited by AlejoMoreno

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5 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

It's funny how Bitcoin has performed the best this year and everyone is constantly "blaming Bitcoin" for pulling down the market.

The question isn't if Bitcoin is going to get to its ATH. The question is what is the rest of the market going to do in the meantime leading up to that and after that.

Right, Bitcoin is a very "what have you done for me lately" kinda thing.

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