Charting the course of XRP

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

What you can not get is that if bottom in, you are not right and your warning is meaningles.

Also, you do not follow your own warning, you still hold XRP instead of selling it at 1.3, 0.9, 0.7 or even 0.5....

Yes, there is always a chance that I am wrong. My portfolio is set up to do well no matter what happens. 

1. My risk assets are my house and XRP. I sold everything else in December 2021.
2. My hedge is not in crypto but in traditional markets. The portfolio has a high convexity. That is, it will go up a lot more and lot faster in a bear market, but won't come down quickly in a bull market.
   1. If this is the bottom for all risk assets including crypto, I will have plenty of time to get out of my hedge without losing my value in risk assets. 
   2. If there is more to go down, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield.
   3. If market is choppy, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield.
3. When there is a bear market, typically the market crashes broadly - i.e. indices fall, lots of overpriced assets will fall, overall housing falls. But there are always individual assets that do well because they were underpriced in the first place, or there is a high demand.
   1. Example is my house, which is in a low supply high demand area. Overall housing in U.S. is down, but local conditions vary.
   2. My expectation is that XRP is one of those underpriced assets.
   3. I am aware of others in equities, which I will wait before I invest. 
4. I sold 4.5% at 0.78 in March 2021 (you can find the post where I mention this). I used that for mortgage down payment. I sold another 4.5% at 0.38 because I wanted that security of liquidity in case of extended bad economy. I still hold 91%
5. I still have buy orders for XRP at lower prices. If I am wrong and this is the bottom, then my 91% XRP portfolio will do very well. Then I will take the profits from my hedge and find another opportunity.

In summary, no matter what happens to my guesses, it will still be much more profitable for me than holding cash. 

I only held XRP because of specific circumstances of XRP - underpricing (my opinion), future potential (my opinion), lawsuit outcome (my opinion). If it wasn't XRP but some other asset, I would have sold it with all other risk assets in December 2021. It's a big bet and I could be very wrong.

So, yes I agree. If I had the same view as you w.r.t to XRP (i.e. you don't think XRP is anything special, that is just another asset like all other crypto), then I would have sold in December.

If Ripple lawsuit didn't happen in 2020, I would have sold XRP in December 2021 and waited for second half 2022 like I mentioned in one of those posts.

It's my bet and I am okay with being wrong. If I'm wrong, I'm protected. If I'm right, like my traditional market portfolio, it has high convexity.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Ripley

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

It's my bet and I am okay with being wrong. If I'm wrong, I'm protected. If I'm right, like my traditional market portfolio, it has high convexity.

Thank you for a transparacy and Happy New Year 

[PlanK]

12 hours ago, Ripley said:

As part of FTX investigation, they will definitely find evidence of exchanges colluding and they will invoke the RICO act. They will then figure out that there was no counterparty to 100x leverage. RICO is no joke. Huobi, Binance, FTX, Bitfinex - they’re all in trouble. The hope is that US CEXes are not involved.

 

As part of the FTX investigation they will also find a lot of nefarious dealings involving powerful people that don't want a lot of heat on them.  DOJ say they are ready to lay charges against Binance but are in two minds whether they should.  I don't think that is because they want to protect retail investors using these exchanges.  They are waiting to see if the FTX scandal blows over in MSM without significant rich-Lister PR causalities before they proceed.  There is always the risk that what is widely known in crypto-media makes it to the front page normie market and shines a spotlight in those dark, corrupt places.

So how long will the DOJ wait?

 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, PlanK said:

So how long will the DOJ wait?

Depends on negotiations between the two parties once the new Congress and Senate are sworn in, IMO. We can only hope that even if it takes time, the right thing will be done. 

Unrelated: I’m very disappointed in NY Times coverage of SBF btw. Looks like they got paid well enough. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Ripley

[War]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:35 PM, Ripley said:

Yes, there is always a chance that I am wrong. My portfolio is set up to do well no matter what happens. 

1. My risk assets are my house and XRP. I sold everything else in December 2021.
2. My hedge is not in crypto but in traditional markets. The portfolio has a high convexity. That is, it will go up a lot more and lot faster in a bear market, but won't come down quickly in a bull market.
   1. If this is the bottom for all risk assets including crypto, I will have plenty of time to get out of my hedge without losing my value in risk assets. 
   2. If there is more to go down, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield.
   3. If market is choppy, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield.
3. When there is a bear market, typically the market crashes broadly - i.e. indices fall, lots of overpriced assets will fall, overall housing falls. But there are always individual assets that do well because they were underpriced in the first place, or there is a high demand.
   1. Example is my house, which is in a low supply high demand area. Overall housing in U.S. is down, but local conditions vary.
   2. My expectation is that XRP is one of those underpriced assets.
   3. I am aware of others in equities, which I will wait before I invest. 
4. I sold 4.5% at 0.78 in March 2021 (you can find the post where I mention this). I used that for mortgage down payment. I sold another 4.5% at 0.38 because I wanted that security of liquidity in case of extended bad economy. I still hold 91%
5. I still have buy orders for XRP at lower prices. If I am wrong and this is the bottom, then my 91% XRP portfolio will do very well. Then I will take the profits from my hedge and find another opportunity.

In summary, no matter what happens to my guesses, it will still be much more profitable for me than holding cash. 

I only held XRP because of specific circumstances of XRP - underpricing (my opinion), future potential (my opinion), lawsuit outcome (my opinion). If it wasn't XRP but some other asset, I would have sold it with all other risk assets in December 2021. It's a big bet and I could be very wrong.

So, yes I agree. If I had the same view as you w.r.t to XRP (i.e. you don't think XRP is anything special, that is just another asset like all other crypto), then I would have sold in December.

If Ripple lawsuit didn't happen in 2020, I would have sold XRP in December 2021 and waited for second half 2022 like I mentioned in one of those posts.

It's my bet and I am okay with being wrong. If I'm wrong, I'm protected. If I'm right, like my traditional market portfolio, it has high convexity.

The housing market being down is a meme. My house has gone up by 40% compared to 3 years ago. Seems to line up well with the notion of people owning nothing and being happy. If the housing market collapses before very harsh taxation kicks in, I will be absolutely shocked.

Edited January 2 by War

[JASCoder]

For the record - XRP trading event at 02JAN2023 01:06 minute - volume 40.6 million peak at that minute:
( note: this event also concurrently occurred in other tokens too, such as BTC/ETH/ADA etc. )

1m interval (Binance tradingview)

[Guest]

1 hour ago, War said:

The housing market being down is a meme. My house has gone up by 40% compared to 3 years ago. Seems to line up well with the notion of people owning nothing and being happy. If the housing market collapses before very harsh taxation kicks in, I will be absolutely shocked.

It’ll crash by a lot more - overall. Local markets may vary. That said, the US Mortgage Market contributes to about 25% of US GDP. 

30Y mortgage is now ~6.2%. In January it was ~3.1%. A 1M mortgage in January has the same interest payment as today’s 500K mortgage. So the value of that 1M house is effectively down about 40% because a buyer who can afford ~31K in interest payments will only be able to buy a 500K house.

Now, most people who bought houses got their mortgages refinanced at lower rates. And most of those mortgages have high credit rating unlike 2008. All good so far.

The Fed is actively trying to cool employment sector. Keep rates high. Small Businesses will start to fail. People will lose their jobs. Soon people will be forced to take loans against their home equity. But the values of those homes will have been down. 

And then people will want to sell their homes to get some money. But there won’t be buyers. Interest rates too high. People scared for their finances.

Just as with crypto or any other risk assets, crashes happen quickly but take years to recover and individual wealth will be destroyed.  
 

PS: Look up savings rate and credit card utilisation metrics. People are already suffering financially.

Look at household survey vs payroll for employment numbers. Employment has already depressed.

Fed unfortunately looks at lagging indicators. 

Edited January 2 by Ripley

[swift_post]

1 hour ago, JASCoder said:

For the record - XRP trading event at 02JAN2023 01:06 minute - volume 40.6 million peak at that minute:
( note: this event also concurrently occurred in other tokens too, such as BTC/ETH/ADA etc. )

1m interval (Binance tradingview)

any idea why? alameda?

[Guest]

Assuming nothing changes, I expect this week’s range to be between ~0.33 and ~0.38

[ipinabox]

2 hours ago, JASCoder said:

For the record - XRP trading event at 02JAN2023 01:06 minute - volume 40.6 million peak at that minute:
( note: this event also concurrently occurred in other tokens too, such as BTC/ETH/ADA etc. )

1m interval (Binance tradingview)

Send many thanks for observations for confusions. Market aggregates show covers for all.

[VanHasen]

Xrp fell hard against the top 20. I often see people claiming insider trading on a case resolution when xrp price spikes against the market - now, wouldnt it be fair to assume that if insider trading on a negativ court ruling exists (or any other bad event), it would look like this?

[xrp-nuke]

Is there a date of rulling or some another back and forward expected?

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Is there a date of rulling or some another back and forward expected?

No date. Except chop like the rest of crypto. It is likely to be in Q1 (on or before March 31) but no later than Q2 (on or before June 30).

Keep an eye on LBRY hearing on Jan 30 which might involve secondary sales of LBRY.

[Coingecko]

Wishing everyone a happy "5 years of no new ATH" anniversary!

[Guest]

This weekend should be interesting. Silvergate is done and its network connects a lot of big entities.

Genesis about to file bankruptcy. I wonder if we will see Gemini file next.

What happens if Greyscale assets are dumped? Are there any buyers for those assets?