Guest Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said: What you can not get is that if bottom in, you are not right and your warning is meaningles. Also, you do not follow your own warning, you still hold XRP instead of selling it at 1.3, 0.9, 0.7 or even 0.5.... Yes, there is always a chance that I am wrong. My portfolio is set up to do well no matter what happens. My risk assets are my house and XRP. I sold everything else in December 2021. My hedge is not in crypto but in traditional markets. The portfolio has a high convexity. That is, it will go up a lot more and lot faster in a bear market, but won't come down quickly in a bull market. If this is the bottom for all risk assets including crypto, I will have plenty of time to get out of my hedge without losing my value in risk assets. If there is more to go down, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield. If market is choppy, my hedge will outperform risk assets significantly + give me a yield. When there is a bear market, typically the market crashes broadly - i.e. indices fall, lots of overpriced assets will fall, overall housing falls. But there are always individual assets that do well because they were underpriced in the first place, or there is a high demand. Example is my house, which is in a low supply high demand area. Overall housing in U.S. is down, but local conditions vary. My expectation is that XRP is one of those underpriced assets. I am aware of others in equities, which I will wait before I invest. I sold 4.5% at 0.78 in March 2021 (you can find the post where I mention this). I used that for mortgage down payment. I sold another 4.5% at 0.38 because I wanted that security of liquidity in case of extended bad economy. I still hold 91% I still have buy orders for XRP at lower prices. If I am wrong and this is the bottom, then my 91% XRP portfolio will do very well. Then I will take the profits from my hedge and find another opportunity. In summary, no matter what happens to my guesses, it will still be much more profitable for me than holding cash. I only held XRP because of specific circumstances of XRP - underpricing (my opinion), future potential (my opinion), lawsuit outcome (my opinion). If it wasn't XRP but some other asset, I would have sold it with all other risk assets in December 2021. It's a big bet and I could be very wrong. So, yes I agree. If I had the same view as you w.r.t to XRP (i.e. you don't think XRP is anything special, that is just another asset like all other crypto), then I would have sold in December. If Ripple lawsuit didn't happen in 2020, I would have sold XRP in December 2021 and waited for second half 2022 like I mentioned in one of those posts. It's my bet and I am okay with being wrong. If I'm wrong, I'm protected. If I'm right, like my traditional market portfolio, it has high convexity. Edited December 30, 2022 by Ripley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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