Charting the course of XRP

[Troote]

3 hours ago, Ripley said:

If countries impose cash controls, crypto may benefit due to perception of safe haven (when compared to their national currency). Not applicable for USD. Not likely in the medium term. 

I don't think crypto will be perceived as a safe haven. I think we are going to see a crackdown on crypto. Banks refusing transfers of fund to and from crypto exchanges (e.g. Starling Bank last month). Accounts that had traffic with crypto exchanges closed (e.g. BoA this week). Regulators banning access to any kind of crypto derivatives & crypto margin trading (e.g. Canada). It's becoming increasingly difficult to invest in crypto.

It might be a nothing burger in the mid/long-term. But to me, right now, it really looks like regulators are going to make things even harder for people to enter/exit crypto. That is going to push people towards even shadier organizations, exposing them even more to scams and fraud. Crypto is anything but a safe haven, and it's not going to improve.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Troote

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Troote said:

I don't think crypto will be perceived as a safe haven. I think we are going to see a crackdown on crypto. Banks refusing transfers of fund to and from crypto exchanges (e.g. Starling Bank last month). Accounts that had traffic with crypto exchanges closed (e.g. BoA this week). Regulators banning access to any kind of crypto derivatives & crypto margin trading (e.g. Canada). It's becoming increasingly difficult to invest in crypto.

It might be a nothing burger in the mid/long-term. But to me, right now, it really looks like regulators are going to make things even harder for people to enter/exit crypto. That is going to push people towards even shadier organizations, exposing them even more to scams and fraud. Crypto is anything but a safe haven, and it's not going to improve.

Yeah, we are talking about two different time horizons. Agree about near term. 

[Guest]

 

In case you're interested @Troote. 

[xrp-nuke]

Meanwhile Mr. Rippley juust starts to realise the bottom, what are your picks for  x30?

Edited December 24, 2022 by xrp-nuke

[MQB]

Most of them haven’t even come out yet.

Meanwhile you need to get rid of your xrp, matic, sand, avax, Ada…..etc for good

[xrp_is_love_xrp_is_life]

5 hours ago, xrp-nuke said:

Meanwhile Mr. Rippley juust starts to realise the bottom, what are your picks for  x30?

Buy below $0.22 is good buy IMO. Bitcoin is going lower and will drag xrp into this price range.

[Troote]

On 12/22/2022 at 1:55 PM, Ripley said:

In case you're interested @Troote. 

Yes, I have seen. It just makes it undeniably clear they knew fully well what they were doing. SBF is not sorry, not shocked, not mystified by what happened. He is a psychopath. He consciously built the fraud, did it with intent and his fullest understanding. He lied repeatedly to portrait himself as something he is not. Hopefully they will all end up in jail for a few decades at least. But I doubt it.

In any case, merry Christmas all!

[Guest]

Closing out the year... 

Big move either way between late January 2023 and end of February 2023 is likely, IMO. If it pumps before lawsuit resolution, it will have done so along with Bitcoin, Ethereum etc. In that case, it might be the last opportunity for those who want to get out of crypto with profits (or reduced losses). Macro is highly bearish and will be considerably worse in 2023, especially Q2.

The biggest positive moves in traditional markets have historically happened in bear markets. I won't be surprised if crypto goes up by 2x from here or even up to 80% of ATH. With China opening up its economy again, anything can happen. Don't fall for it and don't be tempted to buy. It will crash down.

Liquidity will continue to be drawn out of the markets and speculators will be very careful about where they put their money. 

 

[Guest]

Glad to see more and more people call this out in public. I’ve refused to trade in crypto 2019 onwards when I figured out how much of it is manipulated markets, instead choosing to hedge crypto risk in traditional markets.

When liquidity is drained, pumped up assets go down first, and ponzis follow soon after. I’m looking forward to trading crypto once all this is flushed out.

'How is it possible that an exchange that offers leverage greater than 100X?...they can just provide this type of leverage and not be assuming any risk? And what we learned through FTX is, the answer is no, it’s all hocus-pocus. And I would say that’s the same thing at Binance." https://t.co/LjAZXMp0Hk

 

[MQB]

All crptos are ponzi schemes, so far. BTC included.

Nothing is worth nothing, really, or what people are willing to pay them for.

 

 

[xrp-nuke]

On 12/28/2022 at 3:51 AM, Ripley said:

Glad to see more and more people call this out in public. I’ve refused to trade in crypto 2019 onwards when I figured out how much of it is manipulated markets, instead choosing to hedge crypto risk in traditional markets.

When liquidity is drained, pumped up assets go down first, and ponzis follow soon after. I’m looking forward to trading crypto once all this is flushed out.

'How is it possible that an exchange that offers leverage greater than 100X?...they can just provide this type of leverage and not be assuming any risk? And what we learned through FTX is, the answer is no, it’s all hocus-pocus. And I would say that’s the same thing at Binance." https://t.co/LjAZXMp0Hk

 

As of time, I can not figure out what is worse:

a.) The person, that silently prepares scam of the century

b.) The gang that constantly seeks collapse of world econony due to this or that

Eventually I come to conclusion that none of them healthy.

[Guest]

I warned of inflation risk and rising interest rates in Q2 2021.

As 20Y and 30Y US treasury yields keep going up, most individuals and institutions will have no need for risk assets with no cash flows. 

Even today, 2Y note gives some 4.x% pretty much risk free yield. Coinbase earn with USDC gives 1.x%. It’s a no brainier. Funds will continue to flow out of crypto.

Block and Binance have claimed a $14T trading volume in 2021 in CEXes alone. That is a load of bull. Gold (physical + financial), one of the most liquid commodities, had $22T this year. And that is with fear of inflation. There is no way Block/Binance number is accurate. It’s all fake volume and wash trading. 

As part of FTX investigation, they will definitely find evidence of exchanges colluding and they will invoke the RICO act. They will then figure out that there was no counterparty to 100x leverage. RICO is no joke. Huobi, Binance, FTX, Bitfinex - they’re all in trouble. The hope is that US CEXes are not involved.

I’ve been warning that this is not a regular pump and dump, but that this is a real bear market. We are just getting started. 

Those holding cash will get an opportunity to buy at lows, if you are careful about which assets you buy. 

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

I warned of inflation risk and rising interest rates in Q2 2021.

As 20Y and 30Y US treasury yields keep going up, most individuals and institutions will have no need for risk assets with no cash flows. 

Even today, 2Y note gives some 4.x% pretty much risk free yield. Coinbase earn with USDC gives 1.x%. It’s a no brainier. Funds will continue to flow out of crypto.

Block and Binance have claimed a $14T trading volume in 2021 in CEXes alone. That is a load of bull. Gold (physical + financial), one of the most liquid commodities, had $22T this year. And that is with fear of inflation. There is no way Block/Binance number is accurate. It’s all fake volume and wash trading. 

As part of FTX investigation, they will definitely find evidence of exchanges colluding and they will invoke the RICO act. They will then figure out that there was no counterparty to 100x leverage. RICO is no joke. Huobi, Binance, FTX, Bitfinex - they’re all in trouble. The hope is that US CEXes are not involved.

I’ve been warning that this is not a regular pump and dump, but that this is a real bear market. We are just getting started. 

Those holding cash will get an opportunity to buy at lows, if you are careful about which assets you buy. 

Ofcourse you warned, everyone in "gang of economy collapse" warns! It just timing always a moving target, right?

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Ofcourse you warned, everyone in "gang of economy collapse" warns! It just timing always a moving target, right?

You referred to gang that "seeks" economy collapse in previous post. I do not seek economy collapse. Don't twist the narrative. I warned everyone on what I observed.

I advised everyone to exit by end of year, in May 2021, with reasoning. End of year was market top. I gave options on where to put cash. All of those assets with the exception of residential property (which in the area that I live is still maintaining price or increasing) have done very well. See https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/32626-charting-the-course-of-xrp/?do=findComment&comment=927516

In August 2021, I advised everyone to get out of loans, leverage trades, to get out of centralized exchanges, to get out of crypto and that second half of 2022 they can reenter the market if they want. See https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/32626-charting-the-course-of-xrp/?do=findComment&comment=945789

I warned about fake volumes and risk again in September 2021. See https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/32626-charting-the-course-of-xrp/?do=findComment&comment=955659

Again in December 2021 when I advised everyone to hedge against interest rates, especially if they have mortgages. See https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/32626-charting-the-course-of-xrp/?do=findComment&comment=969021

I gave more choices again in July 2022 - hedging against interest rates, investing in miners, FX trading because of strong USD. See https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/32626-charting-the-course-of-xrp/?do=findComment&comment=994168

I already said I don't trade crypto because markets are fraud. My FY 2022 performance by following my own advice and timing below. 

200% against S&P, 246% against Nasdaq, 490% against BTC, 550% against ETH, 440% against XRP.

I gave you the timing and warning. I gave you alpha. If you chose not to listen, that's your choice.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Ripley

[xrp-nuke]

9 minutes ago, Ripley said:

I gave you the timing and warning. I gave you alpha. If you chose not to listen, that's your choice.

Oh dear, you are so hard.

What you can not get is that if bottom in, you are not right and your warning is meaningles.

Also, you do not follow your own warning, you still hold XRP instead of selling it at 1.3, 0.9, 0.7 or even 0.5....