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Charting the course of XRP


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Completely unrelated. Coinbase 2028 bonds are trading at a 45% discount for an annual yield of 16.5%. This is US Dollars. For a U.S. registered exchange. Are you willing to lend Coinbase your money at this deep discount?

Willing to: Think about why it is so discounted. Could the market be wrong about the risk? If you think so, this is a great opportunity to get real yield in USD. 

Not willing to: Do you expect Coinbase to go under, and so unable to pay debts? If this is risky, what risk are you carrying with your favourite DeFi project that doesn’t even have a counterparty?

PS: Saylor’s company, whose assets are mostly BTC, has some 25% yield. How about now! 

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15 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Completely unrelated. Coinbase 2028 bonds are trading at a 45% discount for an annual yield of 16.5%. This is US Dollars. For a U.S. registered exchange. Are you willing to lend Coinbase your money at this deep discount?

Willing to: Think about why it is so discounted. Could the market be wrong about the risk? If you think so, this is a great opportunity to get real yield in USD. 

Not willing to: Do you expect Coinbase to go under, and so unable to pay debts? If this is risky, what risk are you carrying with your favourite DeFi project that doesn’t even have a counterparty?

PS: Saylor’s company, whose assets are mostly BTC, has some 25% yield. How about now! 

I would take a punt. Is this just for U.S. citizens?

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3 hours ago, QuestionMark said:

am 100% convinced the impending regulation will NOT be designed to give retail an edge. Quite the opposite. I also imagine we'll get something akin to the "accredited investor" bullshit going on elsewhere in finance. Retail may not be completely locked out but it will be completely neutered

Regulation is primarily to benefit retail. Always. Dot com regulation gave rise to the current boom of 2006-2022 in software. 2008 regulation is why today US housing market is still holding up relatively well, with housing crash limited to about 15-25%. 

Being an accredited investor doesn’t need you to be rich. Those rules have changed. You just have to pass Series 65, an exam that doesn’t need a sponsor. You need to take a driving test to get a license. Same thing.  Anyone in the US can become an accredited investor. And if their risk tolerance is high, they will get access to high risk, high reward products.

That said, you don’t need to be accredited to get alpha. Just due diligence. In traditional markets, ETFs exist that give you access to things regular retail doesn’t get access to.

In any case, buying crypto doesn’t need you to be accredited. Buying securities that are unregistered, will need you to be. As to what a security is - we need to wait for legislation. But most DeFi, LP tokens etc are likely to be securities.

Yes, regulation can get things wrong sometimes but ultimately things will get corrected.

3 hours ago, QuestionMark said:

As for XRP, there is no way in hell banks and FIs will be buying XRP off the hands of retail investors, neither will they be ever exposed to retail and/or whales and manipulators swinging the price in whichever way suits them. IF, and that's an if as big as Texas, they will EVER use XRP in any capacity retail will be locked out of it.

Banks and FIs shouldn’t need to buy XRP, at least for ODL. That’s the whole point. If they still want to, they can get it on OTC desks or in most cases, they may want to be market makers themselves.

Whales and manipulations will reduce significantly with regulations. 

XRPL is not controlled by any one entity. If retail wants to build on it, they can. If they want to trade it, they can.

Fiat corridors will be controlled just as they are today. AML/KYC will be needed just as it is today.

XRP is a lot more than ODL or Ripple’s use cases. It’s just getting started. 

Edited by Ripley
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Paul Graham is a big enough guy that this tweet might itself create a panic crash too. I don't know if he is referring to Grayscale, or Tether, or some regulatory stuff, or more contagion from Luna, or something else entirely. 

 

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Walter Bagehot wrote this, circa late 1800s.

"All people are most credulous when they are most happy; and when much money has just been made, when some people are really making it, when most people think they are making it, there is a happy opportunity for ingenious mendacity. Almost everything will be believed for a little while, and long before discovery the worst and most adroit deceivers are geographically or legally beyond the reach of punishment. But the harm they have done diffuses harm, for it weakens credit still farther."

 

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5 hours ago, Ripley said:

Paul Graham is a big enough guy that this tweet might itself create a panic crash too. I don't know if he is referring to Grayscale, or Tether, or some regulatory stuff, or more contagion from Luna, or something else entirely. 

 

So another yet reputable guy manipulates market with vague and meaninglless short messages on twitter... noice

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On 11/21/2022 at 4:43 AM, Zerosh said:

How many more damage / crash do we still need to suffer? Right now it's about FTX hacker dumping ETH which is also affecting altcoin market, as we know market move together most of the time. 

We're not getting a break at this. 

This guy lives from news cycle to news cycle, it's a little sad and comical at the same time.

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3 hours ago, Gorgalosk said:

Just because they don’t list it doesn’t mean they don’t hold it.

Yes, you’re technically right. But it is unlikely because why hold an asset that you cannot get revenue from? Exchanges are a volume business and holding XRP gives them nothing. It’d be a liability. 

They may be providing custodial services, which of course has no liquidity implications. I suppose OTC might be a factor but it is unlikely to be a major one.

Gemini/BlockFi refused to support XRP. Grayscale was forced to remove XRP from its balance sheet when the lawsuit was filed, so there are no XRP reserves to be dumped by them. FTX probably did hold XRP.

Anecdotally I also don’t see any significant US exchange presence on the DEX either - https://threexrp.dev/lists/whale-list-grouped. It’s just Binance, Bitstamp and others.

What the tweet should have said is that XRP has very limited (close to zero) exposure to the web3/defi ponzis that were built over the past 3 years. Ultimately it is still impacted of course, because people and exchanges try to sell everything they can to get into cash. 

My hope is that we will see sensible regulations in 2023 before XRP gets caught in a mess like this with the next bull cycle, and that in 2,3 years utility volumes will go up high enough to provide a floor price.

Edited by Ripley
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