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Charting the course of XRP


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Cap is an unfortunate abbreviation.  It’s actually standing for Capitalisation.  Simply the product of price and total supply.

 

But the word ‘cap’ puts people in mind of a limit.   It’s not.  It can’t limit anything.  It’s sole uses so far in crypto have been to ‘order’ cryptocurrencies and to provide a rule of thumb guide to retail investors.  
 

In the ordering of coins BTC is at the top, ETH next etc.  But even in that situation it’s a finger-on-the-scale measure.

Coinmarketcap puts XRP as a supply of 47B which is actually wrong.  It’s 100B.  They ignore the whale holdings of Ripple.  They don’t do that for other coins whale holdings.  (If they hadn’t unilaterally decided to adjust that figure,  it would be upsetting to the BTC/ETH maxis who run that site.)

So the figure is arbitrary and in some senses,  imaginary.  The current crop of crypto investors use it to gauge their growth expectations of coins…  so it’s important in pricing for the moment.  For this period in which mostly retail crypto speculation sets the price and utility plays no part.  But that may change.

And if it does change in future, especially if because of massive utility,  then just like investors paying $1,000 for Amazon stock in 2017,  future XRP buyers won’t be limited by an arbitrary number.  They will go over the imaginary limit and perhaps push it much higher because that’s what the market decides at that time is the trading price.

Another aspect that makes it not a limit is the percentage available for trading.  That is significantly different to the amount that’s liquid and trading.  And that is very dependent on the nature of the market investors.  As institutions buy in it becomes less available for trading as large holdings are accumulated.

 

TLDR:  it’s arbitrary and only important in pricing now because the market is largely unsophisticated retail using a rule-of-thumb guide for their pricing.

 

 

Edited by BillyOckham
Culled some fluff
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4 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

Coinmarketcap puts XRP as a supply of 47B which is actually wrong.  It’s 100B.  They ignore the whale holdings of Ripple.

When I was saying that XRP actual circulating supply is 100B, I faced so much anger and hate 🥺

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18 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

looks like we are breaking down with a target of 51cents or 42cents 

I have been watching this guy recently.  He is making interesting videos.   I have traded out a small amount with the intention of rebuying at .51 

 

 

*yawn* potentially this potentially that. 

I think he is clueless just as the others are. 

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3 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Who knows, what analysts say nowadays for weekly and monthly close to keep bullish target?

I think we are hoping BTC will close weekly above the 20MA which is just about happening, but the BTC charts are making a classic bull flag with a down target of 28k.

I am bullish about coming months, but I am always bullish about XRP :) and often disappointed :newblush:

I think there is a 30% chance SEC will settle in Feb, and 85% before the end of May.  For me it is mostly about getting to that moment still intact and with as big a bag of XRP as I can.  I would be a bit sad is XRP has retraced to 20cents and then with SEC settlement only goes up to 1 dollar in a bear market.

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8 hours ago, NMNR said:

*yawn* potentially this potentially that. 

I think he is clueless just as the others are. 

I think he is not clueless. He is basically a day trader, and I think quite solid. Rather than foretelling the future TA is about making predictions from patterns about the odds.  

Edited by Julian_Williams
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19 minutes ago, xerxesramesepolybius said:

Last market report showed a record breaking $700m sold, brining the total to last year to $1.5B. Any thoughts on the price impact

Hello Mousey!  They are used for setting up market makers and the like in new corridors.  New corridors will be soaking up the spare XRP once they get started. It reflects a healthy growth in teh XRP ecosystem  Also I think Ripple bought back some XRP too?

Did you see how many Eth Vitalek sold at the top of the market?  There are huge whales set up illegally by Lubin in the Eth ecosystem, but without transparency it is hard to know the amounts dumped by the founders. 

Edited by Julian_Williams
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6 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

Hello Mousey!  They are used for setting up market makers and the like in new corridors.  New corridors will be soaking up the spare XRP once they get started. It reflects a healthy growth in teh XRP ecosystem  Also I think Ripple bought back some XRP too?

Did you see how many Eth Vitalek sold at the top of the market?  There are huge whales set up illegally by Lubin in the Eth ecosystem, but without transparency it is hard to know the amounts dumped by the founders. 

I was under the impression Ripple were not allowed to resume sales till after the court case was settled. When was this changed?

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31 minutes ago, YngwieJ said:

I was under the impression Ripple were not allowed to resume sales till after the court case was settled. When was this changed?

They stopped programmatic sales before  the SEC filed their suit, but OTC sales to financial institutions were never stopped directly as far as we know. The partnership with MoneyGram ended abruptly, but partners and investors outside the USA were not affected. Exchanges delisted XRP, but not because they were told to, instead they did it out of fear of being prosecuted in turn.

The fact that XRP sales were not stopped beforehand, or at least no injunction against their sales was taken out by the SEC is one of the more bizarre aspects of the case against them. Since ripplle claim that the majority of their sales were outside the USA anyway, it hardly matters (and is another part of their defense). It's all rather odd.

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3 hours ago, YngwieJ said:

I was under the impression Ripple were not allowed to resume sales till after the court case was settled. When was this changed?

The "not allowed" part would only have been from RL's own lawyers, not the SEC, DOJ, or some such government agency.
AFAIK, RL was not enjoined from conducting any sales - domestically nor internationally. 

If I was to guess, they prolly only sold XRP tranches via OTC to non domestic enterprises, within jurisdictions where XRP is not categorized as securities.

You know, modern countries - like Japan. 

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Airdrop - "Editions" 

I was scrutinizing the master list at
https://xrpl.community/ 

... and noticed a new "green" one listed, with a drop coming this month. 

It hits all the right checkmarks; reading over the details at their site, it seems like a worthy project to tie up a few of my precious zerps for. 

Additionally, they have a second drop, which has no requirements for investing anything to receive - tho there will apparently be an option to receive additional tokens if you do acquire more beforehand. So there might be some market behavior effects to observe or trade against at the time of snapshot two.

Please chime in if y'all know anything worth sharing for this project. 

BTW - This was the first time I used the super handy XRP Tools site from my laptop to add the trustline, leveraging the awesome XUMM app on my iPad. Both great gifts to our available resources !

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