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Charting the course of XRP


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On 7/30/2021 at 2:49 AM, Ripley said:

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. I have no relationship with the company that’s building out this network or its parent company at this time, and I don’t have plans to start one. I do have a small position on the token itself. I may exit my position at any time. I’m not compensated for this post in any way.

In a couple of posts over the past few weeks, I mentioned that I thought two other tokens will likely do well in the long term, but that I didn’t want to name them because I hadn’t had a chance to invest in them yet, and so there was no skin in the game.

I have been able to open a small position over the past few days in one of them and so I feel comfortable mentioning it.

The token is TZEROP (https://www.tzero.com/) It is a security and is registered with the SEC. It is the only network with approval to list other tokenised securities and it intends to provide liquidity and transparency to the private equity market. Democratisation of private equity, if you will. No more EquityZen or LinqTo. People can invest directly. 

It is still early days and the market is extremely illiquid. It is 90% owned by a single company (Overstock, OSTK) because well, it is a security. They are looking to raise funds and become their own company outside of OSTK.

Anyway, take from this post what you will. It is a high risk prospect, and my personal position is quite small. But I do think it will do very well. Especially as regulatory clarity kicks in. 

 

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I found the following article, to be remarkably well written, considering it's about crypto and the standards set by the industry are remarkably low in general.

https://decrypt.co/91301/federal-reserve-crypto-regulation-plan-stablecoins-big-banks

Does anyone have any opinions worth sharing on what the consequences would be on immediate prices of XRP/etc in the event that next week or so, an announcement came from the US Govt. that stablecoin regulation was imminent. Since (we're told) that 70% of all crypto trades/transactions involve stablecoins - I fear that this would have a sudden impact in the form of a drop, but on the other hand, the market appears to be pricing this in already and perhaps it'll go the other way (particularly if there's good news).

Regulation of power hungry mining has also been speculated about, but not mentioned in the above article, if that were on the cards, I'd expect xrp to do well, but since it's tied to btc and the broader crypto market anyway .... maybe not.

Has anyone seen or done any worthwhile analysis of what this might mean in the short term (in the long term regulation will be good), but will this trigger a further crash or a surge in the next few weeks?

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7 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

I found the following article, to be remarkably well written, considering it's about crypto and the standards set by the industry are remarkably low in general.

https://decrypt.co/91301/federal-reserve-crypto-regulation-plan-stablecoins-big-banks

Does anyone have any opinions worth sharing on what the consequences would be on immediate prices of XRP/etc in the event that next week or so, an announcement came from the US Govt. that stablecoin regulation was imminent. Since (we're told) that 70% of all crypto trades/transactions involve stablecoins - I fear that this would have a sudden impact in the form of a drop, but on the other hand, the market appears to be pricing this in already and perhaps it'll go the other way (particularly if there's good news).

Regulation of power hungry mining has also been speculated about, but not mentioned in the above article, if that were on the cards, I'd expect xrp to do well, but since it's tied to btc and the broader crypto market anyway .... maybe not.

Has anyone seen or done any worthwhile analysis of what this might mean in the short term (in the long term regulation will be good), but will this trigger a further crash or a surge in the next few weeks?

As history shows, regulations in US is circus full of clowns. If they continue this way and it seems they want to, it will scare any innovation and adoption in US.

People seek for regulation that it obvious that they do not work and once implemented benefit for small group of wealthiest.

They are not here to protect.

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12 minutes ago, wojake said:

is 0.45 still in the table? @Ripley

Anything is possible. I expect the entire crypto market to crash badly along with equities etc. at some point. Everything is overvalued. But keeping the lawsuit situation aside, if XRP goes down, it won't go down by itself. If they go down because of inflation/economy/interest rates etc. then it will get as badly impacted as others.

If it is because of regulation, XRPL is in a much better shape than almost all other blockchains.

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8 hours ago, jbjnr said:

I found the following article, to be remarkably well written, considering it's about crypto and the standards set by the industry are remarkably low in general.

https://decrypt.co/91301/federal-reserve-crypto-regulation-plan-stablecoins-big-banks

Does anyone have any opinions worth sharing on what the consequences would be on immediate prices of XRP/etc in the event that next week or so, an announcement came from the US Govt. that stablecoin regulation was imminent. Since (we're told) that 70% of all crypto trades/transactions involve stablecoins - I fear that this would have a sudden impact in the form of a drop, but on the other hand, the market appears to be pricing this in already and perhaps it'll go the other way (particularly if there's good news).

Regulation of power hungry mining has also been speculated about, but not mentioned in the above article, if that were on the cards, I'd expect xrp to do well, but since it's tied to btc and the broader crypto market anyway .... maybe not.

Has anyone seen or done any worthwhile analysis of what this might mean in the short term (in the long term regulation will be good), but will this trigger a further crash or a surge in the next few weeks?

Thanks for the article.  My opinion is that stablecoin regulation, in the short term, would dump the entire crypto market given how dependent BTC is upon the Tether printing machine.  As the market is strongly correlated to BTC, I think it, along w/ XRP, would dump.  Again.

But after that (a month? a quarter?), if their thesis that regulators are driving stablecoins into the hands of banks is correct, I think it would open up more space for XRP to thrive as an outsider.  It would be appealing to small and mid-size companies that cant afford the overhead of banking industry solutions.

Maybe.

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Im not convinced anymore that Tether would have as much of an impact as many think. The reason being that there are many alternative stable coins. The issue would generally be liquidity of crypto to those alternative stable coins.  

Obviously the caveat is if the new regulation pretty much wipes out and treat all stablecoins as shady fake dollars. 

I was under the assumption that USDC is legit. 

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8 minutes ago, NMNR said:

Im not convinced anymore that Tether would have as much of an impact as many think. The reason being that there are many alternative stable coins. The issue would generally be liquidity of crypto to those alternative stable coins.  

Obviously the caveat is if the new regulation pretty much wipes out and treat all stablecoins as shady fake dollars. 

I was under the assumption that USDC is legit. 

USDC is legit. Circle has already applied to be a bank, so we’re good there. So is GUSD, and PAX, I think.

DeFi is the big question. Especially crypto-backed stablecoins, loan products, other products that would be considered money market funds today, etc.

Additional complexity is with the dealer/broker stuff but I think that can be resolved.

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I may be mistaken but it looks like Flare will not distribute FLR tokens to exchanges that are not in a position to give the tokens to holders quickly after launch of the network. I hope you had self-custody of your XRP tokens back in December last year, otherwise it seems many will get screwed and not get the airdrop at all... I am glad I had self-custody at the time of the snapshot, I would be very worried otherwise.

 

Edited by Troote
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14 minutes ago, Troote said:

I may be mistaken but it looks like Flare will not distribute FLR tokens to exchanges that are not in a position to give the tokens to holders quickly after launch of the network. I hope you had self-custody of your XRP tokens back in December like year, otherwise it seems many will get screwed and not get the airdrop at all... I am glad I had self-custody at the time of the snapshot, I would be very worried otherwise.

 

It looks like that on the surface but Flare is not Songbird. As part of the snapshot, all exchanges agreed in writing to also distribute the Flare tokens. Not just the initial 15% but the monthly distribution too. Most (not all) of them agreed to list it for trading too.

All Hugo is asking for is that exchanges respect that agreement and distribute in a reasonable time (6 weeks notice apart from the near 6 months extra time due to Songbird). He’s saying “you agreed to distribute, and now you cannot hold the network hostage until you’re ready. If you don’t distribute the tokens with everyone else, there better be a very strong reason because delayed distribution causes all kinds of fairness issues”

Songbird is different. Exchanges weren’t aware of it and Flare refused to put pressure because it wasn’t part of the original plan.

Edited by Ripley
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18 minutes ago, Ripley said:

It looks like that on the surface but Flare is not Songbird. As part of the snapshot, most if not all exchanges agreed to also distribute the Flare tokens. 

All Hugo is asking for is that exchanges respect that agreement and distribute in a reasonable time (6 weeks notice)

Songbird is different. Exchanges weren’t aware of it and Flare refused to put pressure because it wasn’t part of the original plan.

Sure, but he is still saying that exchanges (and therefore XRP holders) will not receive their FLR if so and so happen. It's people waiting for the airdrop who are held hostage not just by exchanges, but also Flare Network too. It doesn't take much to see who people will get angry at.

I think it is yet another poor judgement call and dreadful management from Hugo. He is just realizing that he has royally screwed his agreement with exchanges. His only recourse to fix this and make exchange stick to their word is to issue threats (which, from my point of view, sound very hollow and unproductive). He is going to alienate partners with this approach and make enemies within the community.

Exchanges which end up not getting FLR will just say that it's not their fault if Flare Networks didn't accomodate their needs and didn't give them the airdrop. Holders will subsequently blame Flare for not honouring their end of the bargain. Bad.

Edited by Troote
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5 hours ago, Ripley said:

USDC is legit. Circle has already applied to be a bank, so we’re good there. So is GUSD, and PAX, I think.

DeFi is the big question. Especially crypto-backed stablecoins, loan products, other products that would be considered money market funds today, etc.

Additional complexity is with the dealer/broker stuff but I think that can be resolved.

I'm not as confident USDC is properly backed yet, Circle license withstanding.  USDC hasn't audited their reserves, only "attested" since 2020, leaving open the possibility they are backed by over %60 unnamed commercial paper.  So much of their volume comes from FTX & China, which would be further restricted.  I would anticipate regulation call all that into question, requiring more actual USD backing for USD pegged coins

So to the original question, if stablecoins were regulated next week I think the two primary assets exchanges use would be devastated in the short term, plunging crypto prices.  USDC might recover later and I would expect XRP to do even moreso as a reliable, quick value exchange.  We might see more exchanges like Bitrue using it as a base pair after the initial shock.

Edited by WrathofKahneman
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