Jump to content

Charting the course of XRP


Guest
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, wojake said:

how long do you think we will range at those prices?

a week? a month? an entire year?!

Depends on why there was a crash over the weekend and right now. Possible reasons:

  1. Could be "bear/bull cycle", though I personally don't believe in bear/bull cycles. Bear/bull cycles only happen in regulated markets. In crypto, I only see them as pump and dump by whales. But the effect is the same for retailers.
  2. Could be tied to inflation/higher interest rates, anticipation of equity market crashes, turning off QE by U.S. Fed, etc. FOMC is scheduled this week - I think tomorrow/day after tomorrow. 
  3. Could be #2 + extra nail in the head this morning due to Geopolitical Tensions in the Baltic Sea.
  4. Could be upcoming regulations/executive order in February from the White House. We have had hearings with key crypto stakeholders - both regulatory and industry. We have had hearings around stablecoins, CFTC vs SEC vs both, climate change vs. Proof of Work, Fed CBDC white paper etc. 

If it is #2 and #3, I think there is a chance for market to go up after Q1/Q2. That is, anywhere between April and July. There is no guarantee of course. We have been in a bubble for close to 10 years. 

If it is #1 or #4, then the only way to change is retail interest. Something must happen as part of #4 or some other reason for which retail decides to once again put money into crypto.

In a real bear market, everything will be down. Bonds, Equities, Crypto, Cash (inflation), etc. There won't be any safety. 

Short term advice would be to take your crypto, especially stablecoins, out of CeFi (Celsius, Nexo, BlockFi etc.) and if possible, hold crypto in your wallet and stablecoins as fiat in your bank. Best case scenario, you will lose only 2, 3 months of interest. Worst case scenario, assets go so low that withdrawals are paused. Those companies have NO LEGAL OBLIGATION to give you back your crypto. And stablecoin issuers (Circle, Tether) have no obligation to you, to exchange tokens with fiat. You are not their customer. 

Edited by Ripley
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, xrp-nuke said:

I would say even 0.3x would be possible if we go that low, 1600 sats under atack one more time, not sure how lomg it can hold.

Anyhow, mid week expect some relief to 0.65, and BTC to 38k. 🤣

Not 0.3. If we fail 0.45, I think XRP will go to 0.25-0.27 and BTC to sub 20000. Again, depending on why it is going down. If it is a dump by whales, I like to think of "what will make retail truly scared".

But you could be right about temporary relief. I think it will depend on FOMC minutes Tuesday/Wednesday + Ukraine situation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coins kid has been posting interesting analysis

Yesterday he was saying BTC has not capitulated because it was all low volume, and to remain bullish it has to capitulate first, which means down to 25k and and spiking on high volume

 

these are his thoughts about XRP's present situation

It seems the analysist are divided about where we are in this market.  Lots of analysists see us still in a bull market that will go para, but they are sounding a lot more bearish.

@Troote  a few weeks ago was saying he thought the NFT market had swiped the top off the end of the bull run, and we would not see an alt season.  This present situation does sort of vindicate his point of view.  I don't really have views on TA.

My strategy has been very simple. I believe XRP will grab a huge slice of cross border payments market and that as this happens the price of XRP will shoot into the stratosphere.  So I still believe sitting on XRP will make me very rich one day.  2022 looks like being the year ODL goes para, but this may not affect price at first.   I also believed XRP would hit ATH in 2021 or earlier, so I have been disappointed, but I still beleive in my strategy of holding a big bag of XRP is a relatively low risk strategy to make me very rich...but if i had sold like Troote did in the early summer I would be much much richer and have much more XRP.   Yes I am disappointed but I will not be beating myself up about it.

I sold 5% of my stock and the money was useful.  i began to buy things that I had been denying myself when I was accumulating XRP

I think we will not be going into a long crypto winter like 2018 - 2020 because 2020-21 saw a huge amount of innovation in new techs and a broadening of the market for new crypto - Defi, Farming, layer 2 platforms, NFT, Metaverse to name a few.  I think there is too much broadening of the market and momentum for this market to go to sleep for 18 months.  Just my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

@Troote  a few weeks ago was saying he thought the NFT market had swiped the top off the end of the bull run, and we would not see an alt season.  This present situation does sort of vindicate his point of view. 

Thanks @Julian_Williams. But just to be clear, all I was saying at the time was that there had been parabolic runs after BTC topped, akin to 2017, and that these parabolic runs happened in novel areas of the crypto market and not the "old-school altcoins" like XRP. I was arguing with people saying that "the crypto market can't have topped because there had been no alt season". Well, there had been one, albeit of a different kind which might have gone unnoticed to some.

That didn't (and still doesn't) imply that "old-school altcoins" like XRP will not have such a run in the foreseeable future. I don't know that is true. I am no psychic. Admittedly, I am very sceptical.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Troote said:

Thanks @Julian_Williams. But just to be clear, all I was saying at the time was that there had been parabolic runs after BTC topped, akin to 2017, and that these parabolic runs happened in novel areas of the crypto market and not the "old-school altcoins" like XRP. I was arguing with people saying that "the crypto market can't have topped because there had been no alt season". Well, there had been one, albeit of a different kind which might have gone unnoticed to some.

That didn't (and still doesn't) imply that "old-school altcoins" like XRP will not have such a run in the foreseeable future. I don't know that is true. I am no psychic. Admittedly, I am very sceptical.

I think there is more truth in your supposition than I thought at that time.  NFTs are almost an independent market of BTC and they represent the tokenisation of things, perhaps every things like houses and metaverse properties and businesses and real Art treasures.  NFTs are poised to spread and be adopted faster by social media than the banks will adopt Cross border payments, this is why they have perhaps impacted the market and why buying these.  That is why it was and is perhaps a good idea to have some of both in your portfolio (note to oneself) 

XRP's position has been complicated by the SEC lawsuit, but XLM is languishing just as badly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think there is more truth in your supposition than I thought at that time.  NFTs are almost an independent market of BTC and they represent the tokenisation of things, perhaps every things like houses and metaverse properties and businesses and real Art treasures.  NFTs are poised to spread and be adopted faster by social media than the banks will adopt Cross border payments, this is why they have perhaps impacted the market and why buying these.  That is why it was and is perhaps a good idea to have some of both in your portfolio (note to oneself) 

XRP's position has been complicated by the SEC lawsuit, but XLM is languishing just as badly.

See, I don't think the fundamentals of DeFi, NFTs or Metaverse matter one iota. To me it sounds like propaganda, a lie that people are being fed. Second Life is 20 years old, yet Metaverse will change the world? Nah.

What drives this market is hype and viral social media. All the exchanges (Binance, FTX, Coinbase) are nothing more than casinos. Literally casinos. They suck people in and collect fees, their ultimate goal is to liquidate people. I believe they are very active creating positioning statements/narratives by working with actors in the space.

When NFTs are no longer cool, they'll find something else. Guaranteed. And whoever comes up with the cool story will win big. Like the folks who created Solana, Punks or whatever else. Hopefully Flare. ;D

Edited by Troote
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Troote said:

See, I don't think the fundamentals of DeFi, NFTs or Metaverse matter one iota. To me it sounds like propaganda, a lie that people are being fed. Second Life is 20 years old, yet Metaverse will change the world? Nah.

What drives this market is hype and viral social media. All the exchanges (Binance, FTX, Coinbase) are nothing more than casinos. Literally casinos. They suck people in and collect fees, their ultimate goal is to liquidate people. I believe they are very active creating positioning statements/narratives by working with actors in the space.

When NFTs are no longer cool, they'll find something else. Guaranteed. And whoever comes up with the cool story will win big. Like the folks who created Solana, Punks or whatever else. Hopefully Flare. ;D

I think NFTs and Metaverse are here to stay.  The first NFTs are junk art and people who bought them and did not resell will be left with junk stock, but tokenisation of things worth real money is a way out of debt and they will go on exploding as people discover they can raise money painlessly..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Troote said:

See, I don't think the fundamentals of DeFi, NFTs or Metaverse matter one iota. To me it sounds like propaganda, a lie that people are being fed. Second Life is 20 years old, yet Metaverse will change the world? Nah.

What drives this market is hype and viral social media. All the exchanges (Binance, FTX, Coinbase) are nothing more than casinos. Literally casinos. They suck people in and collect fees, their ultimate goal is to liquidate people. I believe they are very active creating positioning statements/narratives by working with actors in the space.

When NFTs are no longer cool, they'll find something else. Guaranteed. And whoever comes up with the cool story will win big. Like the folks who created Solana, Punks or whatever else. Hopefully Flare. ;D

I agree with you somewhat. I'm not big on the version of the metaverse that's essentially Second Life mixed with crypto. Even plain old 3D TV has failed to catch on. But the more general sense of the word "metaverse," where more and more of real life gets tokenized and becomes accessible in a digital way, is coming.

DeFi clearly has value, even if a lot of it is still very rudimentary. It's opening up types of investments to everyone that only the rich had access to previously. It's also cutting out the fees and rent seekers that have grown up because of our mountains of regulations in the traditional system. You can for example earn 19.5% APY in a stablecoin savings account or .195% from a bank. I don't know how you can argue there's no value there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

You can for example earn 19.5% APY in a stablecoin savings account or .195% from a bank. I don't know how you can argue there's no value there.

Actually I do (to a degree)! The key question for me is: "where does the money come from, how are these returns possible?". In some cases, these returns can be explained - and yeah, there are some good deals.

Most of the time though, these kind of returns have no transparent, logical explanation. Which, to me, implies some sort of fraud/scam/money laundering/ponzi/you name it. Like you buy a random token, you "stake" it, and someone "magically" gives you 20% APY?

Yeah... right... ;) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Troote said:

Actually I do (to a degree)! The key question for me is: "where does the money come from, how are these returns possible?". In some cases, these returns can be explained - and yeah, there are some good deals.

Most of the time though, these kind of returns have no transparent, logical explanation. Which, to me, implies some sort of fraud/scam/money laundering/ponzi/you name it. Like you buy a random token, you "stake" it, and someone "magically" gives you 20% APY?

Yeah... right... ;) 

It's not magic. On one side you've got people putting up collateral and paying to borrow against it. That gives them access to stablecoins without having to sell their assets that they hope will appreciate over time. On the other side, you've got depositors depositing funds for the borrowers to borrow. The fees that the borrowers pay are used to pay out the interest that the depositors earn.

To me, that's a lot more trustworthy than banks who have totally given up on reserves and just make up magic money out of thin air. The only advantage banks have is that if they screw up, the government will make up more magic money to pay you back. With DeFi, you're working without a safety net in a caveat emptor environment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.